I am The Rabbi, Video Editor of On The Sportslines. This is the final installment of my 5-part series looking at the world of college basketball, one major conference at a time.
Today, we remind you that there are more than just the Big 6 conferences (someone needs to tell college football that), and focus on the other guys. We are going to take a look at some of the teams that can be considered “Bracketbusters”, and the ones that can actually be a champion just like Butler almost was a year ago.
To be considered here you must have two things going for you: a) a chance to make a legit impact in March or b) a past where everyone knows who you are now, even if you aren’t as good this year. The mid-majors are weaker, so I will be profiling a ton of conference champions of smaller conferences that are performing better than expected.
Gonzaga (19-9, 9-3, RPI 69, Best win Dec 22 Vs. Xavier 64-54, Worst Loss Jan 20 At Santa Clara 85-71)
Standard #1 of thinking is this: Gonzaga always needs to play a hard out-of-conference schedule and pays for it with wear and tear during conference season. Standard #2: You have to play big when you’re in a weak conference, and the 3 straight losses the Bulldogs had in conference play is not acceptable. With Gonzaga and Butler on the bubble, we could see an ultimate ruling on mid-majors scheduling hard opponents. If both make it, maybe pedigree helps. If they don’t, no mid-major is going to impulsively schedule anymore. I think the Zags make it in. To do so they will have to beat conference leader St. Mary’s once, in the regular season or in the conference tourney.
Butler (20-9, 12-5, RPI 44, Best win Dec 23 Vs. Florida St 67-64, Worst Loss Jan 3 At Milwaukee 76-52)
Can Butler’s pedigree get them in the field? It just might. The darlings of last year’s tourney had only 3 losses in conference play last year, but now they have 5. Kind of surprising since returning starters Matt Howard and Shelvin Mack were leaders last year. The Bulldogs still have a chance to make the NCAA tournament though, having won 6 in a row. The overwhelming feeling in most circles though, is Butler will have to make it as an automatic bid. That’s not a given this year for sure.
George Mason (23-5, 14-2, RPI 20, Best Win Feb 15 at VCU 71-51, Worst Loss Nov 21 Vs. Wofford 82-79 (OT))
When someone asks you the question of which team has the longest winning streak in America, this is the answer. George Mason is rolling along, winning THIRTEEN in a row. The Patriots right now have a much stronger resume (due to talent and their own competition) then they had when they got an at-large berth in 2006. 11 of those 13 victories are by double digits as well. GMU, with Senior Cam Long and Junior Ryan Peterson, could be a definite second week team in the NCAA tournament. Could they be more than that? Don’t ask a jaded Hofstra fan that question when he’s still bitter about Hofstra’s exclusion and GMU’s inclusion to the NCAA’s in 2006! I just present the facts.
Richmond (20-7, 9-3, RPI 68, Best Win Nov 27 Vs. Purdue 65-54, Worst Loss Nov 18 at Iona 81-77)
UNLV (20-7, 8-5, RPI 26, Best win Dec 21 At Kansas St 63-59, Worst Loss Dec 15 At UC Santa Barbara 68-62)
The Rebels are the forgotten team in this conference, and with good reason (San Diego State and BYU). However, the wins out of conference are impressive. They’ve won at Kansas State, and have beaten Wisconsin and Virginia Tech, both are NCAA tournament teams. Despite their 0-4 record against the Top 2 in their conference, it’s not as bad as it looks. The Runnin’ Rebels have a surprisingly strong profile (thanks to the very strong MWC), to warrant more playing time in March.
San Diego State (27-1, 12-1, RPI 3, Best Win Dec 1 Vs. St Mary’s 69-55, Worst (only) Loss Jan 26 At BYU 71-58)
They started the year 20-0, and despite the barrage they had to endure from Jimmer Mania in late January, the Aztecs still are fighting for a #1 seed! They can do it too. This team – which leads the nation in wins with 27 – is loaded, with Sophomore F Kawhi Leonard, Senior G D.J. Gay, and Senior F Malcolm Thomas. They have only beaten a single team that has been in the Top 25 all year (Gonzaga), but the Aztecs really can make a run in the NCAA’s. Their coach, Steve Fischer, knows all about great teams getting to the summit of college basketball, like his former team Michigan.
Thanks for reading through this 5-part series. I’ll be checking in often as we head into what is my greatest month of the year, March. Happy Madness to all!
To be considered here you must have two things going for you: a) a chance to make a legit impact in March or b) a past where everyone knows who you are now, even if you aren’t as good this year. The mid-majors are weaker, so I will be profiling a ton of conference champions of smaller conferences that are performing better than expected.
Gonzaga (19-9, 9-3, RPI 69, Best win Dec 22 Vs. Xavier 64-54, Worst Loss Jan 20 At Santa Clara 85-71)
Standard #1 of thinking is this: Gonzaga always needs to play a hard out-of-conference schedule and pays for it with wear and tear during conference season. Standard #2: You have to play big when you’re in a weak conference, and the 3 straight losses the Bulldogs had in conference play is not acceptable. With Gonzaga and Butler on the bubble, we could see an ultimate ruling on mid-majors scheduling hard opponents. If both make it, maybe pedigree helps. If they don’t, no mid-major is going to impulsively schedule anymore. I think the Zags make it in. To do so they will have to beat conference leader St. Mary’s once, in the regular season or in the conference tourney.
Butler (20-9, 12-5, RPI 44, Best win Dec 23 Vs. Florida St 67-64, Worst Loss Jan 3 At Milwaukee 76-52)
Can Butler’s pedigree get them in the field? It just might. The darlings of last year’s tourney had only 3 losses in conference play last year, but now they have 5. Kind of surprising since returning starters Matt Howard and Shelvin Mack were leaders last year. The Bulldogs still have a chance to make the NCAA tournament though, having won 6 in a row. The overwhelming feeling in most circles though, is Butler will have to make it as an automatic bid. That’s not a given this year for sure.
Conference USA Roundup
This used to be Memphis’ conference, but not anymore. The Tigers have needed a win versus a legit tourney team out of conference, and they just haven’t done that. UAB had built a good conference profile, but when Memphis finished a season sweep of them last week, it brought them a rung down on the bubble ladder. Southern Miss has never won a tournament game. There is a possibility the Golden Eagles could make a return to the tourney to get that elusive win but they need to win out to even have a chance at an at-large. UTEP has used a surprise tourney appearance a year ago to make them the class of the league this year. The Miners may be the best of a bad bunch of mediocre teams. That formula could make the C-USA a one bid league.
Missouri Valley Conference Roundup
The Missouri Valley Conference has produced a lot of legit tourney teams, but for the third straight year this conference is lacking a little something. The top 2 teams are the only teams who could be even considered for an at-large spot. Missouri State had a win streak of 9, and then lost 3 of 5, then won 4 in a row, before a back breaking loss a day ago against Valparaiso (one of the teams ahead of Butler in the Horizon). As for the other team, Wichita State has only losses versus UCONN and San Diego State in non-conference play. The 3 conference losses were all down to the wire as well. Why is Wichita State is not a guaranteed at-large? It is because of a bracket buster loss this weekend versus VCU, the 3rd best team in the CAA. Which leads us to….
This used to be Memphis’ conference, but not anymore. The Tigers have needed a win versus a legit tourney team out of conference, and they just haven’t done that. UAB had built a good conference profile, but when Memphis finished a season sweep of them last week, it brought them a rung down on the bubble ladder. Southern Miss has never won a tournament game. There is a possibility the Golden Eagles could make a return to the tourney to get that elusive win but they need to win out to even have a chance at an at-large. UTEP has used a surprise tourney appearance a year ago to make them the class of the league this year. The Miners may be the best of a bad bunch of mediocre teams. That formula could make the C-USA a one bid league.
Missouri Valley Conference Roundup
The Missouri Valley Conference has produced a lot of legit tourney teams, but for the third straight year this conference is lacking a little something. The top 2 teams are the only teams who could be even considered for an at-large spot. Missouri State had a win streak of 9, and then lost 3 of 5, then won 4 in a row, before a back breaking loss a day ago against Valparaiso (one of the teams ahead of Butler in the Horizon). As for the other team, Wichita State has only losses versus UCONN and San Diego State in non-conference play. The 3 conference losses were all down to the wire as well. Why is Wichita State is not a guaranteed at-large? It is because of a bracket buster loss this weekend versus VCU, the 3rd best team in the CAA. Which leads us to….
The Colonial Athletic Association, the non-Patriot division
Four teams in the CAA have stood out among the rest. My alma mater Hofstra has had their best year since the almost tournament run of 2006. They for sure have one of the 10 best players in the nation in Senior Charles Jenkins (23 ppg and not a single game under 13 points all year), but the resume lacks the big road or non-conference victory needed for an at-large bid. Virginia Commonwealth University got a huge win on Friday against Wichita State, which took the sting out of back to back losses at home versus Old Dominion and George Mason. They have a faint at-large possibility, but only if they make the finals of the CAA. Old Dominion is the reigning conference champ and is a good possibility to make the NCAA’s even if they lose in the conference tourney. Their victory over Horizon Conference leader Cleveland State in today’s bracket buster game could cement that at-large spot.
Four teams in the CAA have stood out among the rest. My alma mater Hofstra has had their best year since the almost tournament run of 2006. They for sure have one of the 10 best players in the nation in Senior Charles Jenkins (23 ppg and not a single game under 13 points all year), but the resume lacks the big road or non-conference victory needed for an at-large bid. Virginia Commonwealth University got a huge win on Friday against Wichita State, which took the sting out of back to back losses at home versus Old Dominion and George Mason. They have a faint at-large possibility, but only if they make the finals of the CAA. Old Dominion is the reigning conference champ and is a good possibility to make the NCAA’s even if they lose in the conference tourney. Their victory over Horizon Conference leader Cleveland State in today’s bracket buster game could cement that at-large spot.
George Mason (23-5, 14-2, RPI 20, Best Win Feb 15 at VCU 71-51, Worst Loss Nov 21 Vs. Wofford 82-79 (OT))
When someone asks you the question of which team has the longest winning streak in America, this is the answer. George Mason is rolling along, winning THIRTEEN in a row. The Patriots right now have a much stronger resume (due to talent and their own competition) then they had when they got an at-large berth in 2006. 11 of those 13 victories are by double digits as well. GMU, with Senior Cam Long and Junior Ryan Peterson, could be a definite second week team in the NCAA tournament. Could they be more than that? Don’t ask a jaded Hofstra fan that question when he’s still bitter about Hofstra’s exclusion and GMU’s inclusion to the NCAA’s in 2006! I just present the facts.
The Atlantic 10 brings us our next 3 teams. These are the ones who have been the top 3 in the conference all year and are the same 3 who ruled this conference a year ago.
Richmond (20-7, 9-3, RPI 68, Best Win Nov 27 Vs. Purdue 65-54, Worst Loss Nov 18 at Iona 81-77)
This team wouldn’t get a sniff of the tourney under the old format in my book. Having 3 extra teams this year makes a huge difference. The Spiders have a very marginal resume. Their RPI is almost too high, the losses to Iona and Bucknell are hard to ignore and they haven’t beaten any of the Top 5 teams in their conference this season. This team is sorely lacking that signature win they have been looking for. They need to get it soon or they’ll be in the NIT.
Temple (20-5, 10-2, RPI 31, Best win Dec 9 Vs. Georgetown 68-65, Worst Loss Jan 15 At Duquesne 78-66)
Junior Ramone Moore has blossomed into a star this year for the Owls, who look like a comfortable mid-range seed in March. Can they get to the 3rd round or the regionals? Very likely. They played Big East powers Villanova and Georgetown this year, going 1-1. The experience in December could help them get at least one victory in March.
Junior Ramone Moore has blossomed into a star this year for the Owls, who look like a comfortable mid-range seed in March. Can they get to the 3rd round or the regionals? Very likely. They played Big East powers Villanova and Georgetown this year, going 1-1. The experience in December could help them get at least one victory in March.
Xavier (20-6, 11-1, RPI 19, Best win Jan 29 At Richmond 85-62, Worst Loss Dec 1 At Miami (OH) 75-64)
The Musketeers were decent, but nowhere near spectacular in non-conference play, going 9-5. Since then, they have won 12 of their last 13. It’s been that run that has made Xavier the power that we have known them to be in late winter/early spring. Tu Holloway, who’s going to be Atlantic 10 player of the year, averages 20+ points and 5+ rebounds a game. Holloway is one of the best sophomores in the game and has raised his play to a high level this year.
The Musketeers were decent, but nowhere near spectacular in non-conference play, going 9-5. Since then, they have won 12 of their last 13. It’s been that run that has made Xavier the power that we have known them to be in late winter/early spring. Tu Holloway, who’s going to be Atlantic 10 player of the year, averages 20+ points and 5+ rebounds a game. Holloway is one of the best sophomores in the game and has raised his play to a high level this year.
The best of the best of the non-Big 6 conferences is the Mountain West, with 3 true tourney teams and 2 beasts. The one team on the outside looking in right now is Colorado State. Their loss Saturday against UNLV may have been a killer, but if they beat either BYU or San Diego State on the road, they’ll definitely be reconsidered. Yeah, good luck. Speaking of UNLV….
UNLV (20-7, 8-5, RPI 26, Best win Dec 21 At Kansas St 63-59, Worst Loss Dec 15 At UC Santa Barbara 68-62)
The Rebels are the forgotten team in this conference, and with good reason (San Diego State and BYU). However, the wins out of conference are impressive. They’ve won at Kansas State, and have beaten Wisconsin and Virginia Tech, both are NCAA tournament teams. Despite their 0-4 record against the Top 2 in their conference, it’s not as bad as it looks. The Runnin’ Rebels have a surprisingly strong profile (thanks to the very strong MWC), to warrant more playing time in March.
BYU (25-2, 11-1, RPI 2 (yes, 2), Best win Jan 26 Vs. San Diego St 71-58, Worst Loss Jan 29 At New Mexico 86-77)
San Diego State may be the better team, but the better player in this conference and maybe the best player on the other side of the Mississippi is Jimmer Fredette. A man who was THIS close to going to the NBA last year but decided to go back to school and has become a legend at BYU. The 2011 version of the Cougars could be the best since Danny Ainge went to school there. This team has some of the best wins of any Western-based school, still has to get over the hump that is their conference rival San Diego State. If they don’t, they’re going to have a tough road to Houston, even with a high seed.
San Diego State may be the better team, but the better player in this conference and maybe the best player on the other side of the Mississippi is Jimmer Fredette. A man who was THIS close to going to the NBA last year but decided to go back to school and has become a legend at BYU. The 2011 version of the Cougars could be the best since Danny Ainge went to school there. This team has some of the best wins of any Western-based school, still has to get over the hump that is their conference rival San Diego State. If they don’t, they’re going to have a tough road to Houston, even with a high seed.
San Diego State (27-1, 12-1, RPI 3, Best Win Dec 1 Vs. St Mary’s 69-55, Worst (only) Loss Jan 26 At BYU 71-58)
They started the year 20-0, and despite the barrage they had to endure from Jimmer Mania in late January, the Aztecs still are fighting for a #1 seed! They can do it too. This team – which leads the nation in wins with 27 – is loaded, with Sophomore F Kawhi Leonard, Senior G D.J. Gay, and Senior F Malcolm Thomas. They have only beaten a single team that has been in the Top 25 all year (Gonzaga), but the Aztecs really can make a run in the NCAA’s. Their coach, Steve Fischer, knows all about great teams getting to the summit of college basketball, like his former team Michigan.
This primer would not be complete without mentioning the teams that are the class of West Coast and Western Athletic conferences.
West Coast Conference
St. Mary’s (22-6, 10-2, RPI 40, Best Win Jan 27 At Gonzaga 73-71, Worst Loss Feb 16 At San Diego 74-66)
The Gaels were almost an at-large shoe-in a week ago. Now, maybe not so much after 2 straight losses to San Diego and Utah State this week. St. Mary’s does have the pedigree of last year’s Sweet 16 run to hang their hat on, but remember, they got excluded from the tourney 2 years ago. Senior Mickey McConnell has gone through both seasons, and he’s hoping this year goes more like last.
Western Athletic Conference
The Gaels were almost an at-large shoe-in a week ago. Now, maybe not so much after 2 straight losses to San Diego and Utah State this week. St. Mary’s does have the pedigree of last year’s Sweet 16 run to hang their hat on, but remember, they got excluded from the tourney 2 years ago. Senior Mickey McConnell has gone through both seasons, and he’s hoping this year goes more like last.
Western Athletic Conference
Utah State (25-3, 12-1, RPI 25, Best Win Feb 19 At St Mary’s 75-65, Worst Loss Feb 9 At Idaho 64-56)
The Aggies huge road win over St. Mary’s on Saturday probably cemented their tournament spot. The Aggies wouldn’t be a surprise Sweet 16 team; they have been to the dance before. The 2 losses the Aggies had in non-conference play – to Georgetown and BYU – were amazingly close. This team is one that you should try to see during championship week, because they’re going to be seen a lot in March.
The Aggies huge road win over St. Mary’s on Saturday probably cemented their tournament spot. The Aggies wouldn’t be a surprise Sweet 16 team; they have been to the dance before. The 2 losses the Aggies had in non-conference play – to Georgetown and BYU – were amazingly close. This team is one that you should try to see during championship week, because they’re going to be seen a lot in March.
Thanks for reading through this 5-part series. I’ll be checking in often as we head into what is my greatest month of the year, March. Happy Madness to all!
No comments:
Post a Comment