Sunday, July 29, 2012

Lin to the Rockets: Right move for his career



By David Shepard, OTSL Special Contributor

Jeremy Lin made the right move in deciding to play for the Houston Rockets.  Aside from making more money it is a much better move for his career and here is why.


Spin Number 1: The Rockets have been a whole lot better as a franchise over the past decade

The New York Knicks in the past ten years have had just two winning seasons. They have been to the playoffs just three times. Even more surprisingly in those three playoff series they managed a total of just one win. Their best season has been just six wins over .500 in the past decade. Not to mention they have had seven different head coaches in the past ten years. 

Meanwhile, the Rockets have had just four coaches. Unlike the Knicks they have actually won a playoff series in the past ten years. They took the eventual world champions (Lakers) to a game seven in the second round in 2009. Houston has had a winning record in nine of their past ten seasons. The Rockets have won 16 playoff games compared to the Knicks one.

Knicks vs Rockets (Last Ten Years)
                               Rockets     Knicks
Playoff Victories        16              1
Winning Seasons        9              2 
Head Coaches            4              7


Spin Number 2: Lin will have a lot more opportunity with the Rockets

There is only one player on the Rockets that has averaged more than 10 shot attempts per game for their career: Kevin Martin. There are four players on the Knicks that have averaged at least 11.5 shot attempts per game for their careers. In looking at the top four Knicks when it comes to career field goal attempts per game it adds up to 56.7. When you add up the top four Rockets when it comes to shot attempts per game for their careers it comes to 36.1. That is 20 less field goal attempts for the top four Rockets compared to the Knicks. 

What this tells you is Jeremy Lin is going to a team where there is a lot more opportunity to get his shot attempts. He will have the opportunity to be a much more efficient scorer with the Rockets compared to the Knicks.

Career Shot Attempts Per Game (Top Four Players)
        Knicks                                        Rockets
Carmelo Anthony       19.3         Kevin Martin             12.5
Amare Stoudemire     14.8         Chandler Parsons     8.7     
Raymond Felton         12.1        Toney Douglas          8.2
Jason Kidd                  11.5        Patrick Patterson       6.7
Totals                          56.7                                          36.1


Spin Number 3: Amare is on the decline

Amare Stoudemire averaged 25.3 points per game last season. That was his best output since the 2004-05 season. He scored eight less points per game this season. He more than doubled his assist total last season compared to this season. He also shot 76.5 percent from the free throw line in the 2011-12 campaign. That is his lowest percentage since the 2004-05 season. He also shot under 50 percent from the floor this season. When he has played a full season that is his lowest percentage since his rookie campaign. His 7.9 boards per game is the lowest of his career. It is safe to say that one of the two main pieces for the Knicks has dramatically declined.

That's Not Amare (Last 2 Seasons)
            2011-12    2010-11
PPG        17.5         25.3
RPG          7.9*          8.1
FG%       48.3         50.2
APG          1.1           2.6
*Career Low

While Amare may improve with the return of Raymond Felton as the Knicks starting PG (remember, STAT played some of his best basketball with Felton setting him up), Jeremy Lin's best chance for improvement will come in Houston.  Knick fans may not want to hear it, but Lin made the best move for his career.

Friday, July 13, 2012

Is Serena Better Than Tiger?


By David Shepard, OTSL Special Contributor

Serena Williams won her 14th major title at this year's Wimbledon. Another prominent athlete has 14 slams and that is a golfer named Tiger Woods. Two angles can be taken with this.

Angle One: Which athlete will win more majors from this point forward?  Even though Serena plays a much more grueling sport, she has no intentions of retiring any time soon. Meanwhile, Tiger Woods is 36 years old and has not won a major in four years.

Angle Two: (THE ONE I’M TAKING) Can we say that Serena Williams has had a better career than Tiger Woods?  With the following I will argue why you can make a strong argument that she has.

Angle One: Serena is just as dominant as Tiger, but became a superstar at a younger age.

Despite the fact that Serena Williams played her first major three years after Tiger Woods made his debut, she has equaled his number at 14. In all fairness to Tiger, when he won the masters in 2001, he became the first golfer to hold all four majors at one time. However, Serena is the last men’s or women’s player to hold all four titles at the same time since Steffi Graff. Commentator Cliff Drysdale (a tennis lifer if ever there was one) says that Serena’s era is a whole lot deeper than Graff’s era. Woods also has a streak of playing in 12 consecutive majors without a win. Williams worst streak of her career was seven majors without a win. Her excuse was that she was 16 and 17 years old during this major winless streak. Serena won her first major at 17 years old, Tiger won his first when he was four years older.

Serena Is The Lion
Career Majors
                                                        Williams    Woods
Majors                                                 14            14
Age of 1st Major Win                            17            21
Best Streak Of Consecutive Majors         4              4
Most Majors Played Without A Win         7            12*
*Current Streak


Angle Two: Serena wins more and finishes more in contention than Tiger.

Serena Williams has as many majors despite playing her first major tournament three years after Tiger Woods made his debut. She has also played in 16 less majors. Despite all that Williams has just two less top 10 finishes than Woods in majors. Also, despite the fact that Serena is just 30 years old and Woods is 36, Williams has two more years in which she has at least one runner up finish in a major.

Williams Outdoes Woods
Career in Majors
                                                    Williams     Woods
First Major appearance                   1998           1995
Amount Of Majors                               48              64
Top 10 Finishes                                  33              35
Years w/At Least One 2nd Place          12              10


Angle Three: Serena Still Wins, greatest women’s tennis player in today's game. With Tiger this is not the case.

In the last four years Serena Williams has won five majors to Tiger's none. She has also won five grand slams at both Wimbledon and the Australian Open in her career. Tiger doesn’t have five victories at any major in his career. Serena finished in the top 10 of a major in the last four years nine times. Wood’s has only accomplished this six times despite playing in the same amount of majors. 

Williams Still Has It
Majors in the Last Four Years
                                                      Williams       Woods
Majors Won                                         5                0
Top 10 Finishes                                   9                6
Consecutive Top 10 Finishes                 7               3


Will they both go down among the best to ever play their respective sport?  Yes.  But right now the case could be made that Serena will be playing at an elite level longer than Tiger.