Sunday, January 31, 2016

Rolling With The Underdog?

By The Rabbi - OTSL Producer/Video Editor

There's only one number you need to know going into Super Bowl 50, and that number is TWO.

Why 2?  TWO is the number that showed what the Carolina Panthers public perception was for most of the season.  TWO is the number that signified the 20 consecutive regular season wins as a fluke to the public.  TWO is the number that made the Panthers look like a product of just a really weak NFC.  TWO is the number that reminds people that the Panthers were a 7-8-1 division winner a year ago.  TWO is the number that had people believing Cam Newton isn't even a Top 10 QB in the NFL, and that's a CRAZY thing to think now.

Okay, so let me tell you what the number 2 actually represents:  it was the opening Vegas gambling line of Panthers-Cowboys in Week 12.  The Panthers were 10-0 going in the game and the rumblings of a 16-0 regular season were getting louder.  Carolina had built up a reputation as a big game team and was about to prove their worth against a Cowboy team whose QB, Tony Romo, would be starting in his 2nd game back from surgery.

Were the Panthers favorites in this match up going in?  They were not.  It seemed crazy at the time even though the Panthers were on the road in this game and it seems much crazier now.  There have been a ton of doubters for this Panthers team all season, are there are a ton of different reasons why.  

They're not the sexiest team in the NFC.  The Packers have the history and fans; the Seahawks had the two consecutive NFC championships before this season; the entire NFC East (even this year) is more watchable to the average Joe than a singular Panthers game.  

They are still very weak at the skill positions to the public.  RB Jonathan Stewart had a great year, but he was always known as the slightly better portion of a backfield timeshare until 2015.  WR's Ted Ginn, Jr. and Jerricho Cotchery?  Please, they're just other teams castoffs, is what many said before this year.  Greg Olsen wasn't a #1 TE in many people's eyes, because only two tight ends in the NFL were worthy of that distinction:  Rob Gronkowski and Jimmy Graham.  Many people thought this team was done when its leading receiver from 2014, Kelvin Benjamin, got injured in training camp.

Then of course there's Cam Newton, now the very likely NFL MVP.  He was always considered a pretty good QB, but one that still needed to prove himself worthy of that Number ONE Overall draft pick distinction in 2011 for a ton of different reasons.  He had many injuries (which is to be expected for someone who moves as much as Cam does); he was always known as a out of the pocket QB (when the NFL these days embraces more in the pocket QB's); and he was just not considered as much of a leader (like a Brady, a Manning, or a Rodgers).

Unless you've been living under a rock, you all know by now how the Panthers proved the doubters wrong.  They beat the sexy Seattle Seahawks on the way the NFC Championship.

They had the skill positions: Stewart was the main back in the NFL's #2 rushing offense; Ginn had the best year of his career, Cotchery proved he was still a viable wideout, Olsen had his 2nd straight 1,000 yard receiving season and developed into the 2nd best TE in the NFL behind Gronk.

Finally there's Newton:  He was injury free in 2015; threw only TWO INT's from the pocket in his last 10 games and he is now one of the most vocal leaders in the NFL.

So, what happened in that Week 12 game vs. the Cowboys?  Carolina won EASILY 33-14.  Jerricho Cotchery was the team's leading receiver in that game; Newton was responsible for almost 230 all purpose yards plus one touchdown; and Cowboys QB Tony Romo through three INT'S and was re-injured by the very stiff Panthers defense.

The opening line for Super Bowl 50?  Panthers by 3.5.  The public perception changed big time from just TWO months ago, as the betting public moved the line a full TWO points.  Now Carolina is favored over Denver by 5.5, and that line might grow even more.

Do not doubt the Panthers; they're not anyone's number TWO anymore.

Tuesday, January 12, 2016

I Hate Nick Saban, But...

By The Rabbi - OTSL Producer/Video Editor

His smug, arrogant personality and coldness to reporters reminds me of a college version of Bill Belichick.  The smugness is unbearable.  His constant rumors about going to the NFL also make me hate his existence in the college game.

However, the man's presence is necessary to the game.  If last night didn't reaffirm it, I can definitely say it now: he is by far the best coach in the modern game.

I know all the talk by people who are going to talk about his place in the history of college football, will be about how he's better than Bear Bryant, but I don't care.  Comparing Saban and Bryant is like comparing apples and oranges.  Comparing anyone in the non BCS/CFP era to anyone before is somewhat unfair.

As an LSU fan, the hatred I have for Saban is legitimate, but I can still respect the man.  In a very stacked SEC, Tricky Nick always finds a way to make his team rise above all the rest.  Four titles in seven years is a hell of an accomplishment.  When you realize why he didn't win those other three years it is even more amazing.

2011: Cam Newton emerged as a dynamic talent, and yet Auburn still needed a huge second half comeback to beat the Tide in their regular season game.

2013: The "Kick Six" against Alabama in a game where either team could have won kept the Tide from the National Title game and sent Auburn to play Jameis Winston and the Florida State Seminoles.

2014: This remains a mystery.  I have two theories, though.  
  1. Ohio State really snuck up on the college football world.
  2. Alabama didn't prepare and treated the National Semifinal the wrong way.   
Either way, this was an anomaly.

Let's not forget that Tim Tebow might have cost the Tide a title or two as well while he was at Florida.

In watching Nick Saban win his 5th national title Monday night, I saw him do a few things we have seen before.

1.  Establish the Running Game 

Sure, Derrick Henry had a quiet second half, but the establishing of him in the first half allowed Alabama to throw the ball, a lot, in the second half, torching a Clemson defense that hadn't been torched like that in any game this season.

2.  Play to his QB's strengths 

Yes, AJ McCarron did start a playoff game this week (and did enough to win), but the three previous QB's behind center for the Crimson Tide basically amount to one good player COMBINED in the NFL.  Greg McElroy is already working for the SEC network; McCarron is not even the most well-known person in his own household; and although Jacob Coker did have an amazing second half, he doesn't show enough confidence to play QB in the NFL.  He held onto the ball WAY too much at times last night, but as always, Saban figured out a way to overcome it and made Coker look like a Heisman finalist in the second half.

3.  Out-coach your opponent

There's a BIG reason why Nick Saban doesn't lose to any of his former assistants and is now 5-0 when playing for a CFP/BCS National Title.  He's the best coach on the field.  Dabo Sweeney is a young coach who looked really good last night, for about three quarters.  Saban pulled out all the stops, especially going all Sean Payton with a surprise onside kick after tying the game at 24 (yet another face slap to the state of Louisiana).  

Which leads me to the one final thing in my praising of The Devil in college football coach form, the way he adapted to what Clemson gave him last night.  He didn't have the best player on the field in Glendale (that would be Tigers QB Deshaun Watson) and his team never showed they had the better unit on the field - be it offense or defense - until the 4th quarter.  However, the adjustments Saban made led to what truly might be the best of his five national title victories.  Saban needed to find ways in the second half to win himself a title and that's when he called for the onside kick; the multiple downfield passes; and screen plays that carved up the Tigers secondary.  As I said on the OTSL Twitter feed during the game, when Alabama plays at it's best, you just can't beat a Saban-led team.  Clemson brought their A-Game and still came up a bit short.

That's why Nick Saban is the best coach in the modern college game, as much as I wish it wasn't so.