Major League Baseball- The Complete Preview- Part 1: The NL East
Remember me? Yeah I think you do. I am The Rabbi, Video Editor of On The Sportslines. This is one of the greater times of the year when it comes to sports! The Final Four is this weekend of Indianapolis, signaling the end of college basketball, and Opening Day is less than a week away, signaling the beginning of baseball. Over the next few days, I will go division by division through this year’s MLB teams. This is the time of the year when all teams believe they can win the World Series (no seriously, there’s got to be some people in KC who believe this). Now, I will start to break each team down, as quickly as I can. We will predict over/unders as well. If you don’t know what an over/under is, it is a set number Vegas has for wins for each baseball team, and you have to predict if you think they’ll go under or over. We start today with the NL East, home of possibly the biggest favorite in any division in baseball. The numbers are from Betus.com
Philadelphia Phillies- Number: 92 ½
The crème de la crème in the NL, and as I said in the open, my biggest lock to win their division is Philadelphia. Watch the NL playoffs the last 2 years, and realize that the Phillies have a record of 14-4. They will be more dominant in the NL, in my honest opinion, than the Yankees will be in the AL.
The lineup, make no mistake about it, is the best in baseball. There is truly only one weak spot in the lineup offensively, in catcher Carlos Ruiz. However, he’s one of the best defensive catchers in the league and is over .300 in the postseason. Rollins, Utley, Howard, Victorino, Werth, Ibanez, Victorino. If even two of these seven names struggle, the other 5 of those names can pick them up. This lineup is the deepest in baseball, and all of them are coming off career years, consistent every year hitters, or can be even better than they were last year.
The pitching staff is in a little bit of question, but not at the top. Roy Halladay is not a question. He’s going to be talked about as the Cy Young leading candidate, and why not? He’s averaged 17 wins the past 4 seasons in the AL East, where the last 3 AL champions have come from. Move him to the NL, and he can be most dominant. However, in the trade for Halladay came the departure of Cliff Lee, who was easily the most dominant pitcher of the 2009 postseason. If Cole Hamels doesn’t get back to 2008 form, people will regret losing Lee, despite his injuries already. Joe Blanton, J.A. Happ, and Kyle Kendrick will make up the rest of the rotation, and outside of the Braves, there’s probably no better 3-4-5 that you’ll find in this division. Closer is another issue, but get to the World Series and your troubles are hidden. Brad Lidge will try to recreate his 2008 magic in 2010, and after elbow and knee surgery, he may.
The Phillies haven’t gone over the 93 win level even in this two year World Series run. I believe there will be fewer questions this year for the Phillies and a lot more answers…at least until September.
The Pick: Over 92 1/2
Atlanta Braves- Number: 86 ½
Good news, bad news time. The good news is the Atlanta Braves were in prime position to make the playoffs next year, after improving in most assets of the game, most notably pitching in 2009. Bad news: this team lost a ton of weapons in the off-season and will have an offense dependent on a 37 year old aging superstar and a 33 year old free agent acquisition. Not good.
That 37 year old is Chipper Jones. Don’t think he can go .264-18-74 again this year and the Braves offense can improve because of it. The 33 year old is Troy Glaus. He only played in 14 games last season, and is starting a 4 year contract batting CLEANUP? Oh boy. Former Yankee crowd favorite Melky Cabrera was traded here in the off-season, but he will start the season the same way he left New York, in a platoon, this time with Matt Diaz. You can blame named starting 20 year old right fielder Jason Heyward for that. He is one of the Braves best offensive prospects in a long time.
Javier Vasquez and his under 3 ERA was traded away to the Yankees, leaving Jair Jurrgens, Derek Lowe, and should have been NL rookie of the year Tommy Hanson to anchor this rotation. Vasquez was expendable in this deep rotation, but will be missed, especially if Tim Hudson and Kenshin Kawakami perform. The bullpen is not so deep. Take Mike Gonzalez and Rafael Soriano out, put Tommy John surgery survivor Billy Wagner in. You’re depending a lot on a guy who hasn’t really closed since mid 2008.
I usually like the Braves as an over. I’m sick of guessing wrong though with them. I did when they were winning one million consecutive division titles, and more sick when they’re disappointing. I thing there are too many questions, this is an under for me.
The pick: Under 86 ½
New York Mets- Number: 82 ½
Oy. Living in New York one of the major questions on sports talk radio is this: how do you fix this team? Well, you change the personnel first, which did not happen in the off-season. The GM is the same one that led the Mets to no playoff appearance in the last 3 seasons. The Manager is the same that led the Mets to their worst record in years in 2009. 72 wins to 82 +? Don’t think so.
The lineup may be the best in major league baseball, but there are three problems. If you’re a Met fan repeat these problems after me….power, depth, and injuries. 2 out of the 3 best power hitters on this team are either injured or coming back from injury. Carlos Beltran may not be back till May (and that’s diagnosis #1!). Jose Reyes is back hitting, but his opening day availability is in question (not good if you have tickets to that Citi Field opener). #2 is the power, and in particular David Wright. Sure, the .300 batting average is nice, but Luis Castillo has that. What the Mets need is at LEAST a 20+ homer season from Wright, and probably more, especially with Carlos Delgado not providing any power this season. 3rd is this: Daniel Murphy, Alex Cora, Angel Pegan, and Luis Castillo. Injuries be damned, you cannot have any of these guys on an opening day lineup! There you go Mets fans, the 3 major issues in hitting.
Then there’s the rotation. Johan Santana is #1 and injury free, however #2- #5 are scary inconsistent, bordering on bad. Pelfrey, Maine, and Perez have had horrible spring trainings, and with the media pressure in New York, there’s not exactly going to be a bunch of atta boys and confidence boosts from New York media. Last year, I actually thought this team could bounce back and actually win the NL. This year, fool me once shame on me, fool me twice….
The pick: Under 82.5
Florida Marlins- Number: 81 ½
Hanley Ramirez. Josh Johnson. Dan Uggla. All are stars at their positions, and usually the Florida Marlins would have traded these 3 names right now to keep themselves in financial stability. However, all 3 are going to be in Marlins camp for a long time, but when will the playoff appearances start coming. The Marlins was 87 last year.
The lineup for this team is good at certain positions (the aforementioned Uggla and Ramirez, and rookie of the year Chris Coughlan). However, the end of that lineup is suspect, in Ross-Maybin-Sanchez, and it may not be enough to gain more RBIs when you get to the bottom of the order. The pitching staff is also a question mark after #2. #3 starter Anibal Sanchez has had injury issues, and there is no proven solid starting pitcher after that. Then there’s the closer….Leo Nunez starts the season at the position, but they’ve never been stable at that position since Kevin Gregg was closer in 2008. I like this team a lot though, and I think they’re going to make a solid playoff push this year, so that 81 ½ is a little low for me, this team should at least be in the mix for a Wild Card spot.
The pick: Over 81 ½
Washington Nationals- Number: 70 ½
This is one of the lowest numbers of any team in Major League Baseball, and rightfully so. Never before has a team with a new stadium looked this pathetic so quickly. The Nats are losing fans in just their stadium’s 3rd season, and this team has no where to go but up, right…..right? Well, let’s just say to reach this number, the Nats need to improve their win total by ELEVEN. ELEVEN, just to get to 71.
The lineup isn’t awful, but projected #6 hitter Elijah Dukes was released prior to the season, as the Nats didn’t want the trouble anymore with his attitude. The stalwarts of this team in the lineup are Ryan Zimmerman and Adam Dunn, 2 of the better power hitters in the game who might be even better with sufficient protection. New acquisition Jason Marquis has made the playoffs in each of his last 3 seasons (kind of in jeopardy there). Ivan Rodriguez will catch for this team, and he’s had a postseason pedigree (in jeopardy also, no). The one major talk this season for this team will be when does pitching phenom Stephen Strausberg reach the major leagues? That number of 70 ½ is too high, especially for a team that reached triple digits in losses last 2 seasons.
The pick: Under 70 ½
Tomorrow: The AL Central, where the Minnesota Twins will be favored yet again despite their lack of closer and lack of roof in Minneapolis.
