Thursday, February 21, 2013

The Price of Being a Jets Fan


By James Ferguson

When the NY Jets moved up in the 2007 draft to get Pittsburgh's Darrelle Revis, few could have known just how good a player he would turn out to be for them. In five injury free seasons he made the Pro Bowl four times, made All-Pro three times and won the 2009 AFC Defensive Player of the Year award. On September 5th, 2010 he was given a new contract with the Jets for four years and $32 million dollars. A nice pay day for what most at the time would have said was the premier corner in the National Football League. That season the Jets finished 11-5 and made it all the way the AFC Championship game where they lost to the Steelers 24-19. Since then, Revis and the Jets haven't fared as well. In 2011 the team finished 8-8 after Rex Ryan’s third straight Super Bowl guarantee and didn’t even making the playoffs. Revis then tears his ACL in Week 3 of this past season against the Dolphins and thus sank the Titanic known as the New York Jets. Why did I choose the Titanic reference?  Because the Jets look more like a shipwreck than a professional football team!

The writing is on the wall here Jets Fans.  Mike Tannenbaum is gone, so thankfully no one else is going to give $30 million more to Mark "I-Look-Like-I've-Lost-Interest" Sanchez, but the Jets unfortunately still have to pay for all the salary mistakes Tannenbaum and Woody Johnson have put their team under. John Idzik is reknowned for his ability to do just that, but not in one year’s time people! The Jets over the course of the last five years have gone from a team with a world of potential to a team lacking even an identity. You can't blame that on one man, but there is one man who can help us, and that man ladies and gentlemen, is Darrelle Revis.

Revis, even with a torn ACL could cover most receivers better than half the corners in the NFL. He is in the same sentence as Deion Sanders and Charles Woodson, names that immortalize that position. He seems to agree with me.  As the news reported in early February, Revis wants to be paid a whopping $16 million per year on his next contract, which would make him the highest paid defensive player in the NFL if it were to happen. Obviously no one in the organization wants to see Revis leave, but if his needs are to be paid at that price, is that too high a price to pay? The answer to that is clearly YES. Even for most teams not under salary cap restrictions, a $16 million a year player is a tough pill to swallow financially. For the Jets? They would literally choke on it. Ever get a pill stuck in your throat? Nasty right? If New York signs Revis, that taste plus a little dirt is what Jets fans will taste until his contract expires.

So let's re-write the question. Not "Is the price too high for Darrelle?" but to "At what price can we sell Darrelle?" For those Jets fans who want to punch me through the computer for such blasphemy, think about this: it's going to be a long season with, or without Revis, so go get some ice for that hand, get some tums for that heartburn, and maybe some aspirin for that hangover.  For those of you still with me, you’re probably asking “Has it really come to this?”  The answer, in a word, is “Yes.”  Despite the most recent news that the Jets have released Bart Scott, Calvin Pace, Jason Smith, Eric Smith, and Josh Baker, the Jets are just barely under the cap, and leaves them basically stranded with laughably very little money to play with during the free agency period. 

So again I ask you, if you were to sell your best player and thus give your team a chance to start - wait for it Jets fans - ”rebuilding” for the next regime, doesn’t that seem like an intelligent thing to do?  Doesn’t it?  Revis could garner a hefty price for those teams thinking he’s the missing piece.  It would also benefit the Jets in that they wouldn’t be burying themselves in a monster contract they have no right to even offer the man. 

So I ask all you football fans to tweet me your answers .  In the end, at what price would you accept a trade for Revis, and at what price are you willing to pay for being a Jets fan?

James Ferguson is an OTSL Alum. He now writes for GMenHQ.com. You can find this piece: http://gmenhq.com/2013/02/20/darrelle-revis-whatsthe-price-for-being-a-jets-fan/

Monday, February 18, 2013

OTSL Facebook Chat: NBA 1st Half Recap/2nd Half Preview


What’s up!  I am The Rabbi, video editor for “On The Sportslines”, and today we're doing a little something different as we turn our attention towards the NBA.  I'm going to have a chat with OTSL's resident “Stat King” Jay Kaplan as we discuss the In’s and Out’s of the NBA as the second half is about to get underway.

The Rabbi:              I know you haven't seen too much good ball from your Sixers this year, but you ready to talk REAL hoops?

Jay Kaplan:            Yeah, lets tip this thing off.

The Rabbi:             Alright, we're going to start with the two locals, beginning with the still kings of New York, the Knicks.  They are 32-17, and have been occupying the #2 seed in the East practically all season.  So, Jay, what's your grade for the Knicks first half?

Jay Kaplan:            In all honesty, I can't really go above a B+ for the Knicks. They are the best team in the Atlantic Division, but that's as much an indictment of the division as it is a testament to the play of the Knicks. The loss to the Clippers was an example of what happens when the Knicks revert to the Melo show. Yes, he HAD to put up monster points because no one else was scoring, but how much of that was lack of ball movement as well as bad shooting? The Knicks had more turnovers than assists and on a team with Kidd, Felton and Prigioni, that shouldn't happen. JR Smith was MIA, Novak got no shots and despite a good start, they didn't go to Amare enough in the post. And don't get me started on the decline on the defensive end! Here are some numbers on that…In their 8-1 start to the season, New York ranked fourth in Defensive Efficiency (that’s points allowed per 100 possessions) and sixth in opponents' Field Goal Percentage.  In the 39 games that followed (before last Sunday's game), the Knicks had fallen off remarkably.  In that span, New York ranked 19th in the NBA in Defensive Efficiency and 23rd in Opponent’s Field Goal Percentage.  Thanks to the ESPN NY Knicks blog for those numbers.  And you and I both agree that it seems like the Knicks just cannot beat a good team.

The Rabbi:            Yeah, they have no quality wins seemingly since the turn of the calendar year.
I'm actually going go with a B on this one.  There was SO much hope when the season started, but they were on a 3 point tear. They couldn't keep up that hot streak, and everyone knew that.  The way the Knicks played Mike Woodson's version of "small ball" worked for a long while this season, because it was creative and something we hadn't seen from the Knicks since that brief run last year with some guy named Lin.  This team is going to need to come up with a BIG man, who can play on that 2nd team with Amare.  Because once we get to later in the season, the Knicks have no SHOT at being the Miami Heat in a Best of Seven.  Can they beat anyone else in a Best of Seven?  Sure, but I'm not 100% sure if anyone is worthy right now.

Jay Kaplan:            I think the version of - as you put it - "Woodson Ball" is a very effective offense, but everyone has to play their part.  I think some of the recent issues have to do with re-integrating Amare, Shumpert and even Felton back into the team when they came off the DL.  As far as having another Big to play with Amare on the 2nd unit, I disagree. It's not about that, it's about Amare, Melo and Chandler being able to all be on the floor at closing time and not get in each other’s way.  Figuring floor spacing in that situation will be key.  Can the Knicks beat any/everyone else on the way to facing the Heat in the Eastern Conference Final?  MAYBE, but not if they play like they did against the Clippers.  Look, we know that Melo has to be Option #1 on offense, but him being the NBA's leading scorer is not necessarily the best thing for the Knicks.  It means he is taking too many shots because either he's hogging the ball or nobody else is putting the rock in the net and he feels like he HAS to take all the shots and score all the points.  He needs to trust in his teammates a bit more, but they have to earn that trust by knocking down shots.  Catch 22.

The Rabbi:            I think the difference between Year 1 and 2 Melo to Year 3 Melo is simple.  He knows when his team is hot and knows when they’re not.  Carmelo CAN be the leading scorer in the league, there is no consistent Robin right now to Melo's batman.  Melo hasn't been in Iso 20-25 times per game like he was a year or two ago.  However, if the Knicks can find a consistent #2 scorer, whether it be big or small, they can beat anyone in the East, except Miami.

Jay Kaplan:            Right, but here's the thing, the rest of the NBA watched the tape of the 4th Quarter where the Clippers defense almost completely took Melo out of the offense.  Using a combination of ball denial defense by Grant Hill along with trapping on pick-and-rolls, the Clippers held Anthony to just two shots and four points in the fourth.  The rest of the Knicks combined for 14 points in the fourth as Los Angeles outscored New York 31-18, in the final 12 minutes of their 102-88 win.  Woodson took Amare out with 7:30 left in the 4th and never brought him back in.  Why?  That move made no sense to me.  Amare has REALLY developed a NICE low-post game after working with Hakeem Olajuwon in the off-season, but we're only seeing glimpses of it because either Melo is taking all the shots, or because Woodson STILL hasn't figured out how to incorporate Amare's new skill set into the offense.  And we all know, that in the playoffs, where everything grinds to a half-court offense stop, you need a guy who can score down low.  Yes, Melo can do that, but he's better off on the wing, facing up his defender.

The Rabbi:            Yeah, but Grant Hill was amazing on his defense #1 and #2 I have to believe that Amare is always going to be a work in progress this season, but that's why they need a big man.  If not to work with Amare, then to be in there late with Chandler and Melo.

Jay Kaplan:
            We'll see.  Okay, shall we look at the Player to Watch in the Second Half for the Knicks?

The Rabbi:            OK, now I think we've given Melo enough talk here.

Jay Kaplan:            Who? J

The Rabbi:            I have to go with a guy that at times represents the same erratic guy who shoots 1-for-a million from the field one night and 999,999-1 million the next.  Yup, it's JR Smith.  JR has bought into this system to a certain extent and has done what I never thought he would be able to do, win the Knicks crowd over.  But there is a bit of an inconsistency to his play.
Jay Kaplan:            Ya think?  He gives me John Starks flashbacks!

The Rabbi:            What do the numbers 9-0-18-11-17-25-16-13-15-6 mean?  That's not the combination from Lost, that's Smith's scoring line last 10 games!

Jay Kaplan:            Very Starks-ian.

The Rabbi:            I think his Knicks tenure can be summed up by the Celtics game in Boston a few weeks ago.  3-16 from the field, but hits 2 clutch shots in the last 2 minutes.  Sadly, as a Knicks fan, he's probably the team’s second best option right now at clutch time.  When JR is on he's on, but when he's off he's JR.

Jay Kaplan:            I liked what I saw from JR earlier in the season, but he has been way too inconsistent of late.  I cringe at the thought of a guy with a 39.8%FG as the Knicks #2 option.  I know it may not be the popular pick, but my guy to watch in the second half is Steve Novak.  If this guy is getting 5+ FGA from beyond the arc and is knocking them down at his career rate of 44%, that means, to quote Walt Frazier, the Knicks are dishing and swishing.  In Wins: 8.5ppg in 23 minutes per game, 5.3 3PT FGA per game and hitting them at a 45.7% clip.  In losses: 3.8ppg in less than 20 minutes per game, only 2.8 3PT FGA per game and hitting at only a 38.3% clip.  Yes, Novak is a one-dimensional player with a singular skill, but we both know that his ability to knock down 3's is essential to the success of the Knicks offense.  I know that stats can be made to fit any narrative we want, but I think this even passes the "Eye Test".  When Novak gets shots, he knocks those shots down and the Knicks have a better chance to win. We've seen it time and again this season.

The Rabbi:            Yeah, Novak is a huge streak shooter though, I almost think if he's getting the threes, everyone is getting the threes.  That simple.  Okay, so let's move on to the Brooklyn Nets.  They've had their ups, and they've CERTAINLY had their down in 2012-13, on their way to a 30-22 record.  Jay, what's your grade for the Nets first half?

Jay Kaplan:            I can't give the Nets anything higher than a B.  These guys are JR Smith-like in terms of streakiness as a team.  They run hot and cold like nobody's business.  They’re 4-6 in their last 10 games, practically break even in point differential at +0.3 and are averaging only 86.1ppg in their last seven games.  They can't run their offense if Deron Williams isn't on the floor and he's been inconsistent compared to last year, averaging just 13.7 points, 5.7 assists and 4.0 turnovers and shooting 38.7%FG from the field in his last six games prior to being shelved with his ankle issues.  Brook Lopez has been solid, even All-Star worthy, but I was expecting more from Joe Johnson than I've seen so far and that bench is reed-thin and inconsistent.  You're not going to win a title with Bogans and Blatche as the best guys on your second unit.  I know, I know, MarShon Brooks, but he isn't even a below-the-poverty-line facsimile of Jamal Crawford.

The Rabbi:            Something is wrong with D-Will so for me this grade is actually a B-.

Jay Kaplan:            Lowest numbers in major stat categories in his last 5 seasons.

The Rabbi:            And the Nets have had a disappointing season, even by mediocre standards, and yes I know they are 8 games over .500.  Yeah, I think D-Will needs to rehab injuries that I think he's truthfully playing through.  Joe Johnson has actually kept this team afloat in the last 15 to 20 games shockingly.

Jay Kaplan:            Well, Deron has been shelved, he won't even practice till this week.

The Rabbi:            Yeah, I think he should be out longer.  Deron is just starting to become a tiny bit of a hinderance out there.  He may need to run a few less plays when he comes back.  Just look at the game against an actual good team, Indiana.  It was ugly, but they won.  And the Nets may need to win "ugly" a lot more in the second half of the season.

Jay Kaplan:            D-Will had been averaging almost 36 minutes per game this season, that's a lot of wear and tear on a PG in an Isolation-heavy offense.  It may just be taking it's toll on him.  Unfortunately, as I said, this team flat out struggles to run it's offense without him.  I think you're right about them having to win a lot of ugly games in the second half in order to stay in the hunt for the #4 seed and home court in the first round.  When healthy, I like their Starting Five, but that bench is a hindrance.  I know GM Billy King from his time running the Sixers Front Office and he's a deliberate guy, but I do think he needs to add to this team.  The rumors are already circulating.  Interest in Utah's Paul Milsap; could Carlos Boozer be coming here to reunite with D-Will; and according to ESPN, through their league sources, the Nets are "aggressively pursuing a trade for Atlanta Hawks star forward Josh Smith."  I put no stock in trade rumors.  They are a whole lot of sound and fury signifying nothing, until something actually happens, but the Nets do need to make something happen.

The Rabbi:            I completely agree with you 100%.  This team needs a boost via any trade whatsoever.  Smith would be a headache for this team financially and personality wise, but I think desperate times call for desperate measures, but I'll get to that in a second.  One thing that's amazing about the Nets, is that they've won almost all the games they were supposed  to win this season.

Jay Kaplan:            ALMOST. 

The Rabbi:            They have one loss, ONE, against a below .500 team at the time they played them this season, and that was the week leading to the All-Star break against Washington.  However, all that will do for the Nets is expose them in a Best of Seven.  It would be ironic if the Knicks and Nets played each other in Round 1, with each team's inability to win against a good team in 2013.

Jay Kaplan:            Well, if Williams is out for an extended period and King doesn't make a trade that improves this team, they could fall to the #6 or #7 seed and could play the Knicks if they are the #2 or #3.  That said, let's take a look a the key second half player for Jay-Z's team.  Rabbi, who are you looking at?

The Rabbi:            I was thinking more of a 4-5 situation actually.

Jay Kaplan:            Nah, the Knicks won't fall that far.

The Rabbi:            I don’t know, Indiana and Chicago have a good shot.

Jay Kaplan:            Well, we can discuss that in our “Around the NBA” segment.

The Rabbi:            Now moving on to the Nets Player to Watch in the second half, I have go all OTSL's Sean Roman on you and say Kris Humphries!

Jay Kaplan:            HAHAHAHAHA!!!

The Rabbi:            This is a double-edged sword here.  Here's edge #1: Kris Humphries gets traded sometime in the next week and is one of the key pieces that go to Atlanta in a trade for Josh Smith or bring a decent bench guy back to Brooklyn like Ben Gordon.  Edge #2: He stays and becomes a force again, not the inconsistent 6ppg mess he's become in 2013.

Jay Kaplan:            His disappearance has hurt this team, he was being counted on to be a physical presence inside.

The Rabbi:            Hell, in the first half versus Denver last week, he had an early 10 points!  And we though JR was Mr. Inconsistency.  We need to see more of the pre-“I-just-got-jilted-by-Kim Kardashian” Kris Humphries.

Jay Kaplan:            Indeed, the Nets need the guy who averaged 14/11 last year not the 6/6 guy they’ve been getting so far this season.  My Net to watch in the second half is Joe Johnson.  I talked about Johnson on OTSL when we were doing our Knicks/Nets preview.  This is a career 18/4/4 guy who has been the #1 offensive option on a playoff team; been an All-Star; and I felt he'd be the perfect compliment to D-Will, playing off him on some nights and taking over on others.  But I haven't seen the guy I saw in Atlanta.  All of his numbers are down slightly from his career averages, by about 1pt, 1 assist and 1 rebound which most people would look at and say "Well, this is Deron Williams team, it makes sense that Johnson's numbers would drop a bit being Option #2", but when you look underneath the numbers - and you know I always do - here's what jumps out: In wins, he averages 18.2ppg on 44.6%FG.  In losses he averages 14.9pts on 38.6%FG.  That's a pretty big split for a guy who is supposed to be a hallmark of consistency.  He's about on par with his career PPG Split in wins, but he's down from his career PPG split in losses.  If D-Will is going to miss games and/or play less minutes, then it's going to be even more incumbent upon Joe to pick up the slack and be the guy who was a 6-Time All-Star while down South.

The Rabbi:            You know, it's kind of funny, the last time JJ went over 20 was the MLK day win against the Knicks.  Joe Johnson is going be a huge part to this team, but maybe D-Will's few games out will help Joe and the rest of this team.  The game against Indiana was all about seeing how ugly they can win a game.

Jay Kaplan:            We'll see, with D-Will out who’s going to get JJ the ball?

The Rabbi:            Well, as I said before, I think D-Will has had injuries since the season started
If he’s not 100% D-Will may not be as helpful as you think.

Jay Kaplan:            And when CJ Watson is your backup PG, that's a problem.  And yes, that will impact Johnson's effectiveness.  Forget all those Forwards in the trade rumors, get this team a PG!

The Rabbi:            I'm not saying CJ Watson is D-Will II, but for right now D-Will needs to fix what is wrong with him.  This has been, one crazy first half of the NBA season, but everything has been closer to status quo, the top 3 teams are pretty much the same as last year (Spurs, Heat, and Thunder), so let's talk about the surprises.

Let's start with a good surprise Jay.

Jay Kaplan:            The team that has surprised me so far this season - and they're making me look good for picking them as the team to watch on OTSL's NBA Preview - is the Denver Nuggets.  As much as I hated to see him leave Philly - and I still don't agree with the trade - I knew that Andre Igoudala would be a great addition to a pretty good team and he's made them better on both ends of the floor.  He's around his career numbers in points, rebounds and assists, averaging 13/5/5.  He's what Dickie V calls a Stat Sheet Stuffer, but more than that, you get NBA All-Defense level D; great decision making; and leadership; things that cannot often be quantified - shocking coming from a stat guy, I know - but that every team with championship aspirations needs.  He was, in my estimation, the missing piece to a really good, young core of Danilo Galinari, Ty Lawson and Kenneth Faried.  He gives Denver another "Been there, done that, got the t-shirt to prove it" veteran who, along with Andre Miller, will guide this bunch of kids deeper into the playoffs than most people may think. They play at a very high pace - #3 in PPG; they move the ball well - #2 in assists; they shoot a high percentage; they get a LOT of second chance points - they're #1 in Offensive rebounding - and they get steals and blocks at a high rate.  Wow, I sounded like Hubie Brown there for a second.

The Rabbi:            I loved the Nuggets, they are essentially a stat sheet stuffer team and Faried is as much of a beast as any player in the entire league when it comes to the boards.  I think it will be just a couple of years till Faried wins Defensive Player of the Year.  I'm going to go with the highest scoring team in the NBA.  I'm going with the Houston Rockets.

Jay Kaplan:            Nice choice!

The Rabbi:            The Harden trade that they made days before the season has worked out perfectly for this franchise, who was looking for a #1 guy for years now.  Houston is 29-25, really been a solid team from the moment the word go has been said this year.

Jay Kaplan:            Word go? Come on, you're better than that Rabbi!  At least go with "from the opening tip"!

The Rabbi:            Harden is the reason, with numbers that I don't think we thought he would have this soon after being put into a starting lineup.  Harden is a 27ppg player and has been carrying this team on certain nights when they've needed it.  Omar Asik (thank God I don't have to speak his name here) has been a pleasent surprise as well as the #2 player on this team shockingly.  And oh yeah, there's some guy named Lin that's been playing up to acceptable PG status, at least scoring-wise.  If he can run the floor more efficiently, this team is going to be trouble.  I don't think a team like the Thunder wants to draw the Rockets in Round 1.

Jay Kaplan:            A couple of solid choices.  Let's move on to the team that has been the disappointment so far in the first half.  Are we going to unanimously give that to the Lakers Rabbi?

The Rabbi:            There are two EASY choices here, I think, so I'll go with the Lakers.  Yup, I go status quo.  The Lakers have been as entertaining as promised, entertaining train wreck style.  There are three problems at work here.  Problem #1 is Mike Antoni.  And I think you know why I call him that Jay.

Jay Kaplan:            Because his teams NEVER play D! (insert rim shot here)

The Rabbi:            Yup, he should be ashamed to have “D” in his name!  Mike is also a problem in this aspect: he thinks this team should run around his system, and not let Kobe, Dwight, Nash, and Gasol, be, you know, the All stars that they are!  Problem #2 is Dwight Howard.  I don’t think he's used to a media market like LA.  You know how some baseball players can't play in NY where baseball is king?  Well, I’m thinking Dwight can't play in LA where B-Ball is King.  At least the Lakers are.  That PLUS I think Dwight worries too much about his image and his touches.

Jay Kaplan:            Just about to say that.  I agree with you on both of those last two points.

The Rabbi:            Third and final problem: I need to see ONE version of Kobe Bryant.  One day it's the 30 shot Kobe Bryant, another day it's the motivational leader Kobe Bryant, another day it's 11 assist Kobe Bryant, and then you have the final version of Kobe Bryant, one who didn't take A SINGLE SHOT in the first half against the Suns last week.  Not didn't make a shot, didn't take a shot.  I feel like Kobe Bryant needs to be a scorer again.  Let Steve Nash be the facilitator.  Let the rest of the players play.

Jay Kaplan:            I hear ya Kid.  There may be one or two other teams that are disappointing, but I'm sorry no team has been as disappointing on so many levels and so many ways as the Lakers, so we are unanimous on this one.  For me this all started with Mike Brown getting fired five, count ‘em FIVE games into the season, though you can go back before that and say that Little Jimmy Buss being given the keys to the car was the first domino.  You heard me say this when it all went down, but I'll say it again, because it bears saying.  Jim Buss has no business having the final word on personnel matters.  It is a crime against basketball that a solid GM like Mitch Kupchak, who built the teams that got Kobe his rings has to answer to a lugnut like Jim Buss.  Jim Buss is why Mike (no D)'Antoni is coaching instead of Phil Jackson.  Phil wanted some say in personnel decisions - no doubt like he did during his previous tenure - but Dr. Jerry said "Nope" and Phil wasn't about to come back and deal with Little Jimmy so back to Montana he went and the rest is the train wreck you see before you.  Now I'll grant you, the Lakers have resembled a M*A*S*H unit that would make Hawkeye Pierce proud - Google it youngster - so that has played a major part in this disaster of a first half.  You can't expect Kobe, Nash, Howard and Gasol to learn how to play together if you can't get them all on the court at the same time.  And now Gasol is pretty much done for the year.  This is a team in search of an identity and if they don't find it quick, they'll be on the outside looking in come mid-April when the playoffs start.

The Rabbi:            I know who Hawkeye Pierce is!  I know my M*A*S*H damnit!

Jay Kaplan:            HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!

The Rabbi:            This is not the year for the Lakers and it makes me wonder if they want Howard to stay around or they really want to blow this up. 

Jay Kaplan:            Oh I get the feeling Howard is One And Done with the Lakers.  But yes, let's move on.

The Rabbi:            This last half of the season is a big time for teams to make their big move in the playoff race, so let's pick two teams to watch, one from the East and one from the West in these last 30-something games.

Jay Kaplan:            Okay for me the teams to watch are the Chicago Bulls in the East and the Golden State Warriors in the West.  I'll start with the Bulls.  Once again, they have shown they can win despite not having the services of star PG Derrick Rose.  They are 30-21 and currently the #4 seed in the East which would get them home court.  They are doing it with Smoke and Mirrors on offense - their 93.6ppg is 27th in the Association - and the tough defense that has become their trademark under Head Coach Tom Thibodeau.  They only allow 91.9ppg, good for #3 in the league.  Luol Deng is having a decent season, leading the team with 16.9ppg and the Bulls are getting 27.6 points and 20.6 rebounds from Joakim Noah and Carlos Boozer, but how far can this team go without Rose?  According to Bulls GM John Paxson, Rose will start 5-on-5 practices after the All-Star break, but Rose says his recovery is at about 80%, which means he could be back in two weeks or not till next season.  It will be interesting to see what kind of run the Bulls can make without their Franchise Player.

As for the Golden State Warriors, did anyone see this coming?  I know I didn't.  They’re 30-22, currently sitting at #6 in the West and they are doing it without Monta Ellis, who they traded last season to the Bucks for Andrew Bogut and Stephen Jackson.  Freed from having to share the ball with the talented but mercurial Ellis, Steph Curry has taken over the leadership of this team and is putting up solid numbers: 21ppg; 6.6ast; shooting 90% from the stripe and 45% from downtown where he's jacking up 7 shots a game. David Lee - who I LOVED when he was a Knick - is doing his usual lunch-pail/hard hat work averaging 19 points and almost 11 boards per game. Young Klay Thompson has been a nice complimentary scorer (16.4ppg) and Jarrett Jack has done a solid job running the point off the bench.  They have good role players (Harrison Barnes, Carl Landry) and Mark Jackson has done a decent job as Head Coach.  The key for the Warriors in the second half will be upping things on the defensive end.  They are near the bottom of the NBA in steals, blocks and opponent's PPG.  They also commit more turnovers than they force.  And while they are Top-10 in DEF FG% and 3PT% (#6 in each), they allow too many offensive rebounds which means that while their opponents may miss their first shot, too often they get a second.  If they can shore some of these things up, they can be a factor in the post-season.

The Rabbi:            First of all on Chicago, Rose has said he wont come back til he's 110%, so I'm sorta surprised at the mixed messages the team and him has sent

Jay Kaplan:            Truth

The Rabbi:            And Golden State needs to be careful, they've lost 5 in a row.  Okay, for me I have to go with two rivals: Boston and LA. You know those old rivals the Celtics and the Clippers.

Jay Kaplan:            HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!

The Rabbi:            I'll start with Boston, who I think we all thought were dead at the beginning of the year.  Now, they're 28-24, and have won 8 out of their last 10.  Can they truly have a huge run without Rajon Rando, who's done for the year?  I remember the moment when we heard about the injury and the initial reaction was they're done, there's no freaking way they win the division, they'll be lucky to keep their playoff spot which was 8th at the time.  Since then they've moved up to 7th, opened the gap to 5 games clear of a playoff spot, have won games pretty (double OT vs. the Heat) and UGLY (they scored 8 points vs. the Bulls in the 3rd quarter last week and still won).  However, the big thing for them now is this: they can stay with this team - surprisingly deep as it is - and maybe, just maybe, win the division for a 6th year in a row.  It's possible. 

Now to the Clippers.  I looked at last year's strike shortened season as a tryout to see if the Clippers can become elite and if this was the right fit for Chris Paul.  Check and check.  Right now they are firmly in the #3 spot in the West and despite not having Chris Paul for a good amount of games this year, they're 37-17!  This team is the deepest in LA by far, and they might be just as deep or deeper then the San Antonio Spurs.  Chris Paul is going to be a Clipper a lot longer than Dwight Howard will be a Laker.  And most importantly, if the Clips show they can make one big push to go over either OKC and/or San Antonio to get one of those top two spots in the West, LA may see Championship basketball in June anyway.

So, Jay, we saw the run LeBron James went on: six games of 30+ points and 60%+FG from the field.  Insane!  But is he or Kevin Durant your midseason MVP?
Jay KaplanBefore I answer that, let me toss my two cents in on your picks.  The Celtics still have enough to be dangerous. I wouldn't want to play them in the post-season. The Clippers will have a strong regular season but the Royalty of the West just ain't ready to let them crash the party.  Just sayin Rabbi.

As far as who gets Midseason MVP?  Come on, that's a Clown Question Bro!  It's a one-horse race and LeBron James could walk backwards and still win.  You've done the math already - thanks for stealing my numerical thunder Kid - and it is flat out astounding!  He's taken his game to such a different level this season.  Everyone should be very afraid.  This is what it's come to: in Miami’s 117-104 win over Portland last week The King put up what is becoming a typical game for him: 30pts, 6reb, 9ast, 11-15FG.  Now the other members of the Big Three were pretty damn good too.  D-Wade went for 24pts, 9reb, 7ast and Chris Bosh had himself 32pts/11reb in the game on 13-16FG.  Do you think Wade got any of the SportsCenter highlights?  Maybe ONE.  Bosh got ZERO!  Talk about getting no respect.  ESPN chose to put in two highlights of shots that LeBron made but didn't count.  That’s what it’s come to Rabbi.  It's LeBron's league; all the other players are just squirrels trying to get some nuts.

The Rabbi:            I thought this was the Lakers league considering how much attention they get.  Also, we had a Clown question and a M*A*S*H reference in the same chat!  Success!

Jay Kaplan:            Nah, that streak of LeBron's pushed the Lakers WELL off the back page. As for the wide-ranging Pop Culture references, you're welcome.

(Editor’s Note: The passing of Owner Dr. Jerry Buss has put the Lakers back on the back pages and both The Rabbi and Jay – as well as the rest of the OTSL family – extend their condolences to the Lakers and the Buss family.)

The Rabbi:            Alright, I'm going with Kevin Durant.  I love the stat of those six games with 30ppg and 60% shooting, until I realized the two guys tied with five games in a row are
Adrian Dantley and Moses Malone.  Really?
Jay Kaplan:            Yeah, not even in the same Zip Code as LeBron, though both are in the Hall.

The Rabbi:            The Thunder have a better record than the Heat; Durant scores more PPG than LeBron; and sure LeBron averages an assist more per game; but that's because there's still a BIG Three in Miami.  OKC now has Durant and Westbrook and a lot of good guys, but they are in great shape - almost the exact spot that they were in last year - and it's all because of one person: KD.

Jay Kaplan:            That all you've got Kid?

The Rabbi:            Nah, I got more but I don't show all my bullets at once.  The media is a rollercoaster ride.  Remember the West is a dog fight, the East allows you to get all these high scoring stats and that's why LeBron is getting the love right now, and I don't know if he's been playing at this level all year.

Jay Kaplan:            Yup and as we all know, it's all about who raises the Larry O'Brien trophy in June.  So with that in mind, here are our predictions for the NBA Finals.  Rabbi start us off.
The Rabbi:            Heat-Spurs.  I LOVE the Thunder, but I feel like they take a step back this year.  I know the Spurs have a good run left in them here and if they can look back at those four games at the end of that Western Conference Finals in 2012, they can improve on that, and Harden won't kill them this time!  As for the Heat, I don't see who beats them in the East.

Jay Kaplan:            Well, I agree with you about Miami.  I don't see anyway they don't make it back to the Finals unless Kevin Garnett goes all Tanya Harding on LeBron with a tire iron.  As for who they'll face?  Well, as much as I can never count out a Greg Popovich coached team, I think the Thunder also make it back even without Harden and make it a rematch.  Though if the Western Conference Finals are Thunder-Spurs again?  Well, then all bets are off.

The Rabbi:            Well, this marathon chat has ended, any final words you'd like to say sir?

Jay Kaplan:            It's been an interesting first half of the season in the Association.  I enjoyed the Annual Pick-up game (aka “The NBA All-Star Game”) and the NBA's celebration of His Airness turning 50.  And now that all that is out of the way I’m looking forward to what should be a very interesting second half both here in The Big Apple and across the NBA.
The Rabbi:            Same here, there has been a lot of interesting twists and turns so far this season and I can't wait for this stretch drive and the NBA's Second Season.  Back for more basketball talk next post.  Till then, we're out.

Jay Kaplan:            Later!

Friday, February 01, 2013

Super Bowl XLVII: Prop Bets and Keys to Victory

by Steve Rabinowitz, OTSL Video Editor

I am The Rabbi, video editor for On The Sportslines.

There is this little thing called The Super Bowl happening in New Orleans this Sunday (or as ESPN has to refer to it when they put the line for the game up: The Pro Football Championship).  

There is one thing for people who don't want to put down money for those random boxes that are drawn randomly:  Prop Bets.  Here's a few I think people should look at this Super Bowl week:

Bet: How long will Alicia Keys take to sing the National Anthem? 
Line: Over/under: 2 minutes and 15 seconds
What?  You thought I was going to pick a real Prop Bet to start?  Alicia Keys has a tendency to go a little overboard when she sings...so I'm going to take a chance on the over.  Speaking of...

Bet: Will Alicia Keys add at least one word to the National Anthem?
Line: Yes +200, No -300

She's not Christina Aguilera.  If she was Christina Aguilera, she would screw up the anthem and then sign on for Season 5 of The Voice.  Let's go with "No" here.

Bet: How long will the postgame handshake/hug last between Jim and John Harbaugh?
Line: Over/Under: 7.5 seconds
John definitely means a lot more to Jim than Jim Schwartz...but if you think the Niners are losing here, TAKE THE UNDER.  Word of advice.


Bet: How many viewers will the game have?
Line: Over/Under: 111 million viewers
As a media expert, this is an easy one for me.  This is the first super bowl in 10 years that doesn't include Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, or Ben Rape....er Roethlisberger.  I'm going a teeny bit under.  Not much though.

Bet: If Ray Lewis is interviewed after the game on the field or in the locker room how many times will he mention "God/Lord"?
Line: Over/Under: 3 times
IF they win (and I'll tell you later if they will or not), the answer to this question might as well be 25 to 30.  Ray Lewis and God have this special relationship.  By the way, on a side note, if Ray cries before the national anthem of the AFC Championship being sung by some 2nd rate country band, how big will the waterworks get when it's being sung by Miss Alicia Keys?

Bet: Team to score first wins the game?
Line: Yes (-180), No (+150)
Neither team scored first in the Conference Championship game, neither team scored first in the Divisional Round either.  The NFL is the league where it's so easy to come from behind.  Go with "No" here.

Bet: Will there be a scoreless quarter in the game?
Line: Yes (+300), No (-400)

I like "Yes" here, because we've had unusually high scoring games in the 2013 playoffs.  Last Thanksgiving, when we had "Harbaugh Bowl I", the final score was 16-6.  I have a feeling both defenses are not going to get humiliated like they have at times in these playoffs.

Bet: Will there be a lead change in the second half?
Line: Yes (+150), No (-180)

Um, have you watched the last few Super Bowls?  There has been a lead change in the 2nd half of 4 out of the last 5 Super Bowls.  "Yes" should actually be the better line here, I'm shocked it's not.

Bet: Longest touchdown will be...
Line: Over/Under: 46.5 yards

Take the Under.  Both Harbaugh brothers play a similar style and both teams should be scouted enough to the opponents, that we should see a lot of tight defense in this game.  The choice would be tougher for me if the Over/Under was 35 yards.

Bet: Total Joe Flacco passing yards
Line: Over/Under 250 yards

Interesting pick here.  I have to take the "Over" here because Flacco can burn Secondaries deep.  Though as you'll read later in this column, I don't think Flacco's deep ball will be an issue here.

Bet: Total Ray Rice rushing yards
Line: Over/Under 69.5 yards
Rice was held to lower than 50 yards rushing during the AFC Championship game and the last time I checked, the Patriots aren't known as defensive wonders here.  Take the "Under".

Bet: Over/Under tackles by Ray Lewis 
Line: 11.5 tackles 
Welcome to the NFL, where if you blow on someone while he's down it's considered a tackle.  I was re-watching the AFC Championship game on the NFL Network and Phil Simms said Ray Lewis' name wasn't called when he actually made a tackle in the 3rd quarter...he was credited with 7 already.  Yeah, he gets a lot of credit he doesn't deserve when it comes to tackles.


Bet: Will Ed Reed intercept a pass? 
Line: Yes (+300), No (-500) 
I don't think either team's going to make a mistake, but if they do, it'll be on the ground, NOT through the air.

Bet: Will Colin Kaepernick score a rushing touchdown?
 
Line: Yes (+110), No (-140) 
Thank the Green Bay Packers defense for the blueprint of how NOT to stop Colin Kaepernick as a runner.  The Atlanta Falcons picked up on that for the NFC Championship game and I expect that to continue here.


Bet: Will Colin Kaepernick break the 49ers team record for yards passing in a Super Bowl?
Line: Steve Young in Super Bowl XXIX (325 yards) vs. Colin Kaepernick in Super Bowl XLVII +89.5 yards
I don't think anyone has the answer for how to stop him through the air.  It's pick your poison with Colin, and most people will pick passing, because he's only playing his 9th game.  In my opinion, his lack of games played won't matter, I think he'll put up at least 250 yards and that's a cover with this line.

Bet: Total rushing yards for Frank Gore
Line: Over/Under 82.5 yards
Gore!  Gore!  Gore!  He can hit that Beast Mode as easily as any Running Back can, so I have to beliveve an 85 yard performance is very much in reach.  Frank Gore is a BEAST.

Bet: Total receiving yards for Michael Crabtree 
Line: Over/Under 77.5 yards
Take the "Under" because there's no way the Ravens Defense, even as worn out as they've been throughout the season, is going to let the Niners top Wide Receiver come out and have a big game.  That's because...

Bet: Longest reception by Vernon Davis 
Line: Over/Under 20.5 yards
Take the "Over" on this bet and the over on the 50.5 yards receiving that he's predicted to get.  Very rarely are there good match ups for the 49ers Tight End and Davis has had amazing games in three of his four playoff starts.

Which leads me to the last two bets...

Bet #1: WHO WILL SCORE FIRST?
Going with Ravens TE Dennis Pitta (12-1).  I feel like Baltimore will go down the field on their opening drive and score on a First and Goal play.  If the Ravens can't score long, they stay short.  That's why I feel like Pitta's the best option for the Ravens to score first.

Oh, there's an actual game going on with this.  The line between Baltimore and San Francisco has been going around the same numbers, but we'll use an average of San Francisco -4 as the line here.

KEYS TO THE GAME:
San Francisco Offense vs. Baltimore Defense: 
This is the most important matchup here, because I think Baltimore's defense has to force a turnover to win the game.  I don't really know if they can.  Jim Harbaugh is still going to be semi-cautious with Kaepernick and I think Colin is on just too much of a roll right now to make mistakes.  The only way the Niners can make a mistake is on the ground via a fumble and that's how Baltimore can get some easy points.  I think Michael Crabtree knows not to make a mistake that major again.  I think Baltimore's defense is good, but they still have enough problems with their secondary that they won't be able to match up with Vernon Davis AND Michael Crabtree.  Baltimore's plays a "bend but don't break" style of defense, but San Francisco's offense is patient enough to get the Ravens defense to eventually break.

Baltimore Offense vs. San Francisco Defense:  
Joe Flacco has had so many big moments this postseason and there's a feeling that he just may be the AFC's version of Eli Manning: a QB with lesser numbers in the regular season who shines in the postseason.  However, I have to think that the New England and Denver secondaries were seemingly great teams to showcase your talents against.  San Francisco might be a different story.  That said, I still think Joe Flacco can get one or two deep balls out there, but the main issue is going be whether the 49ers can contain Rice and Pierce.  Those two running backs spearhead the best rushing attack they've faced this postseason and probably in the last two postseasons, but I think they can hold the Baltimore running game under 100 yards.  We'll know early on in the game depending on whether the Ravens start out throwing or running.  The running game didn't do too much against New England, so I'm not 100% sure if it will work against San Francisco.

Intangibles:
The Ravens have the Ray Lewis emotional bandwagon to feed on.  I didn't think it meant anything when his retirement was announced right before this playoff run, but after the Denver game, people began to think something pretty special was going on.  The 49ers have had an amazing 2-year run here, and a lot of people truly believe they have a lot more playoff appearances still to come.  On the other side, this may the last run for the Baltimore Ravens, especially in the Ray Lewis era.  The Ravens Defense is getting older and there will always be the Steelers, lurking in the division for years to come.  On the Special Teams side, both Kick/Punt Return Units have an even possibility to break one for a TD, but both teams can make a mistake in this area at any moment during the game.  

Coaching:
Did you know the two head coaches were brothers?  Well, yeah they are.  I find it funny that Jim is still the younger brother, but is the more vocal and better known brother.  He's coming across to me (GASP!), right now, as the Bill Belichick of the NFC.  Jim Harbaugh may be the best of the bunch of young coaches still around, but all John Harbaugh does is win.  Three AFC Title Games in five years and now finally a Super Bowl to go with it.  I kind of like John's consistency, but I LOVE Jim's upside.

Bet #2: WHO WILL WIN THE GAME?

PREDICTION:
Expect a low scoring game as usual, but I feel like there will be a ton of field goals for points.  Let's say at least five (and I know we have a rookie kicker versus the second most inconsistent kicker in the league).  The Niners are favored for a reason: they are in a more battle tested league and they have just a LITTLE bit more talent on both sides of the ball.  So my pick is...drum roll please...

49ers 23, Ravens 16

Oh, and to have more fun, I have to pick a Super Bowl MVP, so I'll go with the biggest matchup nightmare for the Ravens: VERNON DAVIS (18-1).

Enjoy the Super Bowl everyone!  I will have a column next week wrapping up to 2012-2013 football season.  Yeah, shed a tear now.