Super Bowl XLVII: Prop Bets and Keys to Victory

by Steve Rabinowitz, OTSL Video Editor

I am The Rabbi, video editor for On The Sportslines.

There is this little thing called The Super Bowl happening in New Orleans this Sunday (or as ESPN has to refer to it when they put the line for the game up: The Pro Football Championship).  

There is one thing for people who don't want to put down money for those random boxes that are drawn randomly:  Prop Bets.  Here's a few I think people should look at this Super Bowl week:

Bet: How long will Alicia Keys take to sing the National Anthem? 
Line: Over/under: 2 minutes and 15 seconds

What?  You thought I was going to pick a real Prop Bet to start?  Alicia Keys has a tendency to go a little overboard when she sings...so I'm going to take a chance on the over.  Speaking of...

Bet: Will Alicia Keys add at least one word to the National Anthem?
Line: Yes +200, No -300

She's not Christina Aguilera.  If she was Christina Aguilera, she would screw up the anthem and then sign on for Season 5 of The Voice.  Let's go with "No" here.

Bet: How long will the postgame handshake/hug last between Jim and John Harbaugh?

Line: Over/Under: 7.5 seconds

John definitely means a lot more to Jim than Jim Schwartz...but if you think the Niners are losing here, TAKE THE UNDER.  Word of advice.

Bet: How many viewers will the game have?
Line: Over/Under: 111 million viewers

As a media expert, this is an easy one for me.  This is the first super bowl in 10 years that doesn't include Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, or Ben Rape....er Roethlisberger.  I'm going a teeny bit under.  Not much though.

Bet: If Ray Lewis is interviewed after the game on the field or in the locker room how many times will he mention "God/Lord"?
Line: Over/Under: 3 times

IF they win (and I'll tell you later if they will or not), the answer to this question might as well be 25 to 30.  Ray Lewis and God have this special relationship.  By the way, on a side note, if Ray cries before the national anthem of the AFC Championship being sung by some 2nd rate country band, how big will the waterworks get when it's being sung by Miss Alicia Keys?

Bet: Team to score first wins the game?
Line: Yes (-180), No (+150)

Neither team scored first in the Conference Championship game, neither team scored first in the Divisional Round either.  The NFL is the league where it's so easy to come from behind.  Go with "No" here.

Bet: Will there be a scoreless quarter in the game?
Line: Yes (+300), No (-400)

I like "Yes" here, because we've had unusually high scoring games in the 2013 playoffs.  Last Thanksgiving, when we had "Harbaugh Bowl I", the final score was 16-6.  I have a feeling both defenses are not going to get humiliated like they have at times in these playoffs.

Bet: Will there be a lead change in the second half?
Line: Yes (+150), No (-180)

Um, have you watched the last few Super Bowls?  There has been a lead change in the 2nd half of 4 out of the last 5 Super Bowls.  "Yes" should actually be the better line here, I'm shocked it's not.

Bet: Longest touchdown will be...
Line: Over/Under: 46.5 yards

Take the Under.  Both Harbaugh brothers play a similar style and both teams should be scouted enough to the opponents, that we should see a lot of tight defense in this game.  The choice would be tougher for me if the Over/Under was 35 yards.

Bet: Total Joe Flacco passing yards
Line: Over/Under 250 yards

Interesting pick here.  I have to take the "Over" here because Flacco can burn Secondaries deep.  Though as you'll read later in this column, I don't think Flacco's deep ball will be an issue here.

Bet: Total Ray Rice rushing yards

Line: Over/Under 69.5 yards

Rice was held to lower than 50 yards rushing during the AFC Championship game and the last time I checked, the Patriots aren't known as defensive wonders here.  Take the "Under".

Bet: Over/Under tackles by Ray Lewis 
Line: 11.5 tackles 

Welcome to the NFL, where if you blow on someone while he's down it's considered a tackle.  I was re-watching the AFC Championship game on the NFL Network and Phil Simms said Ray Lewis' name wasn't called when he actually made a tackle in the 3rd quarter...he was credited with 7 already.  Yeah, he gets a lot of credit he doesn't deserve when it comes to tackles.

Bet: Will Ed Reed intercept a pass? 
Line: Yes (+300), No (-500) 

I don't think either team's going to make a mistake, but if they do, it'll be on the ground, NOT through the air.

Bet: Will Colin Kaepernick score a rushing touchdown? 

Line: Yes (+110), No (-140) 

Thank the Green Bay Packers defense for the blueprint of how NOT to stop Colin Kaepernick as a runner.  The Atlanta Falcons picked up on that for the NFC Championship game and I expect that to continue here.

Bet: Will Colin Kaepernick break the 49ers team record for yards passing in a Super Bowl?
Line: Steve Young in Super Bowl XXIX (325 yards) vs. Colin Kaepernick in Super Bowl XLVII +89.5 yards

I don't think anyone has the answer for how to stop him through the air.  It's pick your poison with Colin, and most people will pick passing, because he's only playing his 9th game.  In my opinion, his lack of games played won't matter, I think he'll put up at least 250 yards and that's a cover with this line.

Bet: Total rushing yards for Frank Gore
Line: Over/Under 82.5 yards

Gore!  Gore!  Gore!  He can hit that Beast Mode as easily as any Running Back can, so I have to beliveve an 85 yard performance is very much in reach.  Frank Gore is a BEAST.

Bet: Total receiving yards for Michael Crabtree 
Line: Over/Under 77.5 yards

Take the "Under" because there's no way the Ravens Defense, even as worn out as they've been throughout the season, is going to let the Niners top Wide Receiver come out and have a big game.  That's because...

Bet: Longest reception by Vernon Davis 
Line: Over/Under 20.5 yards

Take the "Over" on this bet and the over on the 50.5 yards receiving that he's predicted to get.  Very rarely are there good match ups for the 49ers Tight End and Davis has had amazing games in three of his four playoff starts.

Which leads me to the last two bets...

Bet #1: WHO WILL SCORE FIRST?

Going with Ravens TE Dennis Pitta (12-1).  I feel like Baltimore will go down the field on their opening drive and score on a First and Goal play.  If the Ravens can't score long, they stay short.  That's why I feel like Pitta's the best option for the Ravens to score first.

Oh, there's an actual game going on with this.  The line between Baltimore and San Francisco has been going around the same numbers, but we'll use an average of San Francisco -4 as the line here.

KEYS TO THE GAME:

San Francisco Offense vs. Baltimore Defense: 

This is the most important matchup here, because I think Baltimore's defense has to force a turnover to win the game.  I don't really know if they can.  Jim Harbaugh is still going to be semi-cautious with Kaepernick and I think Colin is on just too much of a roll right now to make mistakes.  The only way the Niners can make a mistake is on the ground via a fumble and that's how Baltimore can get some easy points.  I think Michael Crabtree knows not to make a mistake that major again.  I think Baltimore's defense is good, but they still have enough problems with their secondary that they won't be able to match up with Vernon Davis AND Michael Crabtree.  Baltimore's plays a "bend but don't break" style of defense, but San Francisco's offense is patient enough to get the Ravens defense to eventually break.

Baltimore Offense vs. San Francisco Defense:  

Joe Flacco has had so many big moments this postseason and there's a feeling that he just may be the AFC's version of Eli Manning: a QB with lesser numbers in the regular season who shines in the postseason.  However, I have to think that the New England and Denver secondaries were seemingly great teams to showcase your talents against.  San Francisco might be a different story.  That said, I still think Joe Flacco can get one or two deep balls out there, but the main issue is going be whether the 49ers can contain Rice and Pierce.  Those two running backs spearhead the best rushing attack they've faced this postseason and probably in the last two postseasons, but I think they can hold the Baltimore running game under 100 yards.  We'll know early on in the game depending on whether the Ravens start out throwing or running.  The running game didn't do too much against New England, so I'm not 100% sure if it will work against San Francisco.

Intangibles:

The Ravens have the Ray Lewis emotional bandwagon to feed on.  I didn't think it meant anything when his retirement was announced right before this playoff run, but after the Denver game, people began to think something pretty special was going on.  The 49ers have had an amazing 2-year run here, and a lot of people truly believe they have a lot more playoff appearances still to come.  On the other side, this may the last run for the Baltimore Ravens, especially in the Ray Lewis era.  The Ravens Defense is getting older and there will always be the Steelers, lurking in the division for years to come.  On the Special Teams side, both Kick/Punt Return Units have an even possibility to break one for a TD, but both teams can make a mistake in this area at any moment during the game.  

Coaching:

Did you know the two head coaches were brothers?  Well, yeah they are.  I find it funny that Jim is still the younger brother, but is the more vocal and better known brother.  He's coming across to me (GASP!), right now, as the Bill Belichick of the NFC.  Jim Harbaugh may be the best of the bunch of young coaches still around, but all John Harbaugh does is win.  Three AFC Title Games in five years and now finally a Super Bowl to go with it.  I kind of like John's consistency, but I LOVE Jim's upside.

Bet #2: WHO WILL WIN THE GAME?

PREDICTION:

Expect a low scoring game as usual, but I feel like there will be a ton of field goals for points.  Let's say at least five (and I know we have a rookie kicker versus the second most inconsistent kicker in the league).  The Niners are favored for a reason: they are in a more battle tested league and they have just a LITTLE bit more talent on both sides of the ball.  So my pick is...drum roll please...

49ers 23, Ravens 16

Oh, and to have more fun, I have to pick a Super Bowl MVP, so I'll go with the biggest matchup nightmare for the Ravens: VERNON DAVIS (18-1).

Enjoy the Super Bowl everyone!  I will have a column next week wrapping up to 2012-2013 football season.  Yeah, shed a tear now.