Thursday, December 31, 2015

Bowl Season - New Year's Eve Edition

By The Rabbi - OTSL Producer/Video Editor

I’ve been a little lazy with my bowl preview; Christmas and other stuff has gotten in the way.  However, we are now in the REAL part of bowl season.  New Year’s Eve and New Year’s Day have been remade as huge bowl days in America.  I don’t need to give you a reason to care about these games, you should care about all of these games over the New Year’s holiday.  So, let’s see what we have in store for the New Year’s Eve portion of the holiday, with the two national semifinals also being played on this day:

Peach Bowl: (18) Houston vs. (9) Florida State (-6.5)
Florida State has been a team that, with Jameis Winston at QB, has been used to making playoff appearances and national title games.  Now?  This team is back in the position they were at before the boy wonder came to Tallahassee:  good but not necessarily good enough.  They are the beneficiary (or loser) of having to play the Group of 5's, New Year’s Six nominee in Atlanta.

The Seminoles are here because they lost the biggest game on their schedule (a 23-13 loss to Clemson) AND because they had their big upset along the way (to Georgia Tech).  They ended the season hot, including a stone cold beat down of their in-state rival Florida 27-2.  The transfer of Everett Golson was supposed to keep this team in the national title picture, but Golson disappointed and he’s not even here for this game.  Sean Maguire - last year's #2 QB - is leading the team and is putting up numbers similar to Golson's.  The defense for FSU is a lot better than they were months ago though, and Houston hasn’t seen a defense like this.

Houston gets this big bowl as a big reward for the work they did in the AAC.  The AAC had FOUR ranked teams at points this year (3 in the final CFP standings), and Houston was their champ.  If not for a letdown against UCONN, the Cougars would be coming into this bowl with an undefeated season.  Their coach, former Ohio State Offensive Coordinator Tom Herman, has made this offense more dynamic in 2015.  Their QB, Greg Ward Jr. - who is as much of a weapon with his feet as he is with his arm - has led the offense to 10 more points per game this year as compared to last year and if you get into a shooting match with them, you are could be in serious trouble.

FSU was in a similar situation three years ago going up against an upstart Northern Illinois team.  They dominated that game and Jimbo Fisher isn’t the type of coach to lose games like this.  

The Pick:  FSU 31, Houston 20

Now, for the co-main events.

Orange Bowl: (4) Oklahoma (-3.5) vs. (1) Clemson
Yup, you read that right.  Oklahoma, a team coming out of the much maligned Big 12, has a week longer of rust (or rest depending on your point of view) before facing the SAME EXACT TEAM they lost to in last year in the Russell Athletic Bowl 40-6. The Sooners are the favorite in this game, but both teams are different than they were last year.

For Clemson, it’s about belief, and much more importantly, the "Us Against The World" mentality the team has had in 2015.  They finally beat Florida State for the first time in a while, and also ground out (and I really mean ground out) a close victory versus Notre Dame earlier in the year.  Their coach Dabo Sweeney has prided the team in two major things:  dancing and proving everyone wrong.  Pretty much 50/50 with that.

On the field, Deshaun Watson has been the star that almost everyone thought he would be when he was recruited by the Tigers.  He showed some improvement operating in the pocket this season (although he only averaged 12 yards a completion, which is slightly below what you want from under center these days) and more importantly, made fewer mistakes.  That leadership from the QB position made Watson a Heisman Trophy finalist, though he finished a distant third.  Watson didn’t play in last year’s bowl game and now leading freshman receiver Deon Cain will not be in the game either, due to a drug suspension.  Still this team has enough depth at the WR position that Cain's absence should not be a big deal.  What is a big deal however, is Clemson’s defense.  The Tigers love to blitz and is one of the nation’s best in getting sacks and stopping the run.  They live in their opponent’s backfield.

Oklahoma put up offensive numbers that are Big 12-worthy, but played just enough defense to make others take notice.  In their games against TCU, Baylor and Oklahoma State, they had a good enough defensive scheme to slow each down, though all three having injuries to their regular starting QB’s when they played the Sooners no doubt helped.  Deshaun Watson is the most talented QB the Sooners will have to face.

However, the most talented QB on the field, in my opinion, is Baker Mayfield.  He had almost 4,000 yards of total offense (rushing and passing) and he was as good, if not better than every QB in the country; especially in the final half of the college football season.  Mayfield has the same dual threat capability that Watson does, but he does get sacked. A LOT.  34 times this season.  That does not bode well when facing a Clemson team that (as I said) lives in their opponent's backfield.

After all of that, I hate to say it, but I agree with the crowd.  Oklahoma will outlast Clemson in this one and move onto the national title game in Arizona.

The Pick: Oklahoma 35, Clemson 31

Cotton Bowl: (3) Michigan State vs. (2) Alabama
Alabama had their “Come to Jesus” game early in the season: a Week 3 loss to Ole Miss.  Michigan State has had about five “Come to Jesus” moments this season; not limited to, but highlighted by  a last second win at Rutgers; a win over Ohio State without their starting QB; the longest drive of the college football season to beat Iowa to win the Big 10; and of course the Michigan screw up on a punt which gave the Spartans a walk-off win midseason.  Though these two teams met back in the 2010 Capital One Bowl (where Alabama dominated 49-7), the Spartans are a much different program now.

Connor Cook has the leadership that is desperately needed in this game.  However, since suffering a shoulder injury in November, he hasn’t been giving the Spartans the production they have come to expect from their Senior QB.  Cook’s bowl game performances have been so solid, that hopefully the 25 days of rest leading up to this game for the Spartans will make Cook’s shoulder (and by extension his game) whole again.  Many teams have stayed in the game with Alabama this year and a healthy Cook can blow a game open.

Michigan State's defense is CLEARLY lacking in comparison to Alabama's, but the Spartans have been able to take care of mediocre QB play this year.  Sorry to say Crimson Tide fans, but Jacob Coker is the embodiment of mediocre QB play.  The Spartans can make a team one dimensional, which is the biggest thing MSU has going for them in this game against Alabama.

The Flip Side of that coin is that 'Bama's one dimension is a FREAKIN' Heisman trophy winner in RB Derrick Henry.  He gets 30+ carries a game (though only 14 in the Ole Miss loss) and will be the man Michigan State will game plan their entire defensive scheme around stopping.  They did a good job stopping Ezekiel Elliott in their win over Ohio State, but Elliott only got 12 carries in that game.  Henry has already gashed one Big 10 team in Dallas (the Tide beat Wisconsin here on opening Saturday) and he just might do it again.

There are not enough words to describe just how GOOD this Alabama defense is.  There are LOADS of NFL Talent on this team and that talent has shined brightly (we're talking megawatts here) on the field this season.  The key is going to be whether Connor Cook can outplay Jacob Coker by a wide enough margin to keep this really game close.  My Prediction is no.  I think Michigan State plays into Alabama’s hands and the dream season ends for Sparty.

The Pick: Alabama 31, Michigan State 17

NEXT UP:  The New Year’s Day games.  That post is going to be a lot less wordy.  I swear.

Wednesday, December 23, 2015

Bowl Season - Part 2

By The Rabbi, OTSL Producer and Video Editor

Welcome to Part 2 of my Bowl preview, and thankfully, I only have one game to put in for Monday so I'm putting in a short week!  I know, I'm lazy.

Miami Beach Bowl

Western Kentucky (-2.5) vs. South Florida

1.  Why should I care about this game?

Because the inaugural Miami Beach bowl in 2014 that featured Memphis and BYU, two teams who looked a lot better this season.  That game also featured a massive brawl that was one of the pre-CFP highlights of the Bowl season.  So, as we establish, fighting is more exciting than talent.

2.  Who should I watch for?

While South Florida likes to run, we'll focus on enough runners in future columns.  Western Kentucky has Brandon Doughty, who led the nation this year in completion percentage at 71.9% and had 45 passing touchdowns.  Should make this another high scoring bowl, whether it's high scoring on only one side remains to be seen.

3.  Main storyline?

This is a damn good game for the 2nd day of bowl season.  South Florida was in the mix for the AAC title, and Western Kentucky won every game in the C-USA and by double digits.  Western Kentucky is, in my opinion, right behind Memphis and Houston in non Power 5 conference talent.

4.  At stake?

More for the coaches I think is at stake.  For Western Kentucky, Jeff Brohm has taken the team to newer, dominant heights (they competed really well in their only 2 losses to Indiana and LSU).  For South Florida coach (and former Western Kentucky QB and head coach) Willie Taggert, a chance to get a signature victory against his former team, and some traction in the all of a sudden ultra tight AAC.

5.  Who wins?

Western Kentucky continues their run of big bowl games.  WKU 49, South Florida 35

Coming up in the next post:  Part 3, looking at the games on Tuesday, featuring one of my favorite college football stories of 2015:  Temple.

Saturday, December 19, 2015

Bowl Season- Part 1

By The Rabbi, OTSL Producer and Video Editor

I love college football, and I truly love bowl season.

There might be 40 games (involving FBS teams), and that might be too much for all of you.  I don't care.  I truly love it.

So, because this bowl season is crazy and we haven't seen blog posts on here for a while, I'm doing a bowl preview, day by day of this very long bowl season.

I base each bowl preview with 5 questions:

1.  Why should I care about this game?  

I know I care but I need to give a reason for you to care.

2.  Who should I watch for?

It's the postseason, and if you're not playing for that ridiculous CFP trophy, you care about your draft stock, plain and simple.  

3.  What's the main storyline?

This seems a little like #1, but I can give you a thing to watch with the game.

4.  What's at stake?

Again, if you're not in a national semifinal, I have to let you know why we have this game to begin with.

5.  Who wins?

I'll even include gambling lines, if you're into that sort of thing.

Ready, set, analyze!

Gildan New Mexico Bowl
Arizona (-8) (6-6) vs. New Mexico (7-5)

1.  Why should I care?

Bet you didn't know this match up is Rich Rodriguez vs. Bob Davie!  That's kind of like Michigan vs. Notre Dame (although they didn't even come close to coaching there at the same time)!

2.  Who should I watch for?

Well, since OTSL's Sean Roman's favorite player for Arizona in Scooby Wright is out, and Arizona QB Anu Solomon might not play either, let's go with Wildcat safety Will Parks, the highlight in a defense that tried to hold up the injury machine that was Arizona's offense this year.

3.  Storyline

Arizona's motivation:  on one hand it's hard for a team with many returning players starting bowl season after playing in the Fiesta Bowl a year ago, however, the team that beat them in that Fiesta Bowl was New Mexico's conference rival, Boise State.

4.  Motivation

Arizona doesn't want to end the season 6-7 (and has a ton of people coming back in 2016), New Mexico would like to do their namesake bowl a little bit of justice.

5.   Who wins?

We'll go mild upset here:  New Mexico 38, Arizona 28

Las Vegas Bowl
No 22 Utah (-2) vs. BYU

1.  Why do I care?

Why shouldn't you care?  This is the holy war!  They were rivals for a long time (played til 2013), when Utah dropped BYU for Michigan as an out of conference opponents.  I always love it when old rivals meet together.  It is so damn awkward.

2.  Who should I watch for?

The person you saw on the first full day of college football, and that is BYU's QB Tanner Magnum.  He won two straight games with a Hail Mary, and had 21 total touchdowns on the season.  Pretty good for a guy who replaced Taysom Hill to start the season due to injury.

3.  Storyline

So many!  Bronco Mendenhall's last game as BYU head coach?  The Holy War restarting up in Vegas?  Brent Musburger calling the Holy War in Vegas?  SO MANY OPTIONS!

4.  Stakes

Both teams want a high note ending to seasons that could have been much better.  Utah was a good candidate to win the Pac 12 until they lost to USC and UCLA.  BYU lost their next two games after that pair of Hail Mary's and ironically they were to two common opponents of Utah:  Michigan (Utah won, BYU got drilled) and UCLA (BYU actually played them better).

5.  Who wins?

I think it's really close, but I think BYU hasn't played an opponent this caliber in a while:  Utah 31, BYU 20

Camellia Bowl
Appalachian State (-7.5) (10-2) vs. Ohio (8-4)

1.  Why watch?

Simple:  you probably remember when you were a kid (8 years ago!) when Appalachian State beat Michigan in the upset heard round the world.  Well, this team is all FBS grown up now, and they've won 17 games since joining the big leagues in 2014.

2.  Who to watch?

Mountaineer QB Taylor Lamb.  He's only a sophomore, but has become one of the nation's better young QB's.  29 TD's to 8 INT's?  More of that please.  Of course, like most App St. QB's, he runs too.  8 games with 20 yards rushing or more?  Yes please.

3.  Storyline?

Can the Mountaineers handle being favorites?  Very rare you see a Sun Belt team get favored over a MAC team by so much, but this program seamlessly has transitioned from 1-AA to 1-A (FCS to FBS) without a problem.  Will this be the first step to even bigger things?

4.  Stakes?

Appalachian State was one loss away from being conference champ, win here could make season 3 in the FBS the first one where they get regular season hardware.  Ohio needs to just get some consistency, trying to add a 4th straight victory (although it came after three straight losses).

5.  Who wins?

Get to know the 'Neers, they're here to stay:  App St. 35, Ohio 17

Cure Bowl
San Jose State (-2) (5-7) vs. Georgia State (6-6)

1.  Why watch?

Well, despite that 5-7 record next to San Jose State, these are two fun programs to watch, and you can tell your friends you watched the Inaugural Cure Bowl, the THIRD bowl to take place in Orlando.  Yes third.

2.  Who to watch?

Senior QB Nick Arbunkle of Georgia State.  Over 4,000 yards passing, and should very likely break the Sun Belt conference's single season passing record in this game.  Might be a bench warmer in the pros too, since he knows the pro style down in Atlanta.

3.  Storyline

I love bowl season, but this is the first of THREE teams that are forced into a bowl with a losing record (due to there not being enough over .500 teams).  Big time proving ground for the Spartans.

4.  At Stake

For San Jose State it's momentum:  they come into the bowl on a 1-3 skid and get a huge lifeline to end their season.  For Georgia State it's making sure they end their year with a FIFTH straight victory, very impressive for a team that didn't win a single game against a FBS team in 2013 or 2014.

5.  Who wins?

Eh, San Jose State 28, Georgia State 24

New Orleans Bowl (There is an actual sponsor, but they don't pay us)
Arkansas State (9-3) vs. Louisiana Tech (-2) (8-4)

1.  Why watch?

Remember how I sang the praises of Appalachian State before?  They still lost to Arkansas State  The Sun Belt winners and the C-USA team are going to score, score, and score some more.

2.  Who to watch?

Jeff Driskel.  If that name means something, it's because he used to be the QB at Florida who transferred to try to end his college career on a high note.  He did with 24 TD's and over 3,500 yards.  Why couldn't he have done that in Gainesville?

3.  Storyline

I'm curious to see Louisiana Tech play a bowl game at the Superdome.  They haven't played in this bowl before although you think they would have.

4.  At Stake

To prove who's the more stable ballclub of two teams who have played a ton of "minor" bowls over the last few years.  Feel like that Group of 5 team just might come out of one of these two conferences one of these days.

5.  Who wins?

Arkansas State 31, Louisiana Tech 24.

On our next episode:

The Miami Beach bowl.  Played in Marlins stadium, we might see better athletes than the Marlins have and certainly better football than the Dolphins or the 'Canes.