The College Basketball Primer- Part 1

Hello, my name is The Rabbi, video editor of On the Sportslines.
Today, and for the next 5 days, we will take a look of the college basketball landscape to this point. The tournament is just a month away folks, and for most, it truly is the most wonderful time of the year, the time to really see basketball at its finest.

There are two things you need to know before we get started. Number 1 is the new amount of teams in the tournament: 68. There will now be an opening round that will consist of two days and 4 games on the Tuesday and Wednesday before the now 2nd round commences.

Those two days will consist of 2 types of games: games between the last 4 in to make the field and games between #16 seeds. The three extra teams that wouldn’t have been in before has made for a weaker bubble. That is the 2nd thing you need to know. Teams that would be considered out of the big dance picture by now are squarely in the bubble mix (or actually are in!), and inflated profiles of lackluster teams look a lot better.

Part 1 of our journey through Pre-Tourney land takes us to the Big East. Last year 8 of the Big East’s 16 teams made the tourney. This year the Big East is going to bring even more. While the league may not be as strong as a whole, it is certainly deeper. We will break this into three categories of teams: The Big 7 (the 7 teams who seem to be locks and have been top 25 mainstays all season), the 4 that are right there (tournament teams now, but could always fall back with some bad losses, although there’s an 8th team looking to join the Big 7), and the Other 5 (they need to win the Big East Tourney for any slight chance). We will preview those first 2 groups by team, but the other 5 will go first as a whole.

The other 5 (Depaul, Seton Hall, Providence, Rutgers, and USF): Just no legitimate way any of these 5 can play their way to an at large. Depaul doesn’t have a Big East win, Seton Hall only has 11 wins, South Florida only has 8, Rutgers has only one win in their last 6 (and that was a miracle 4 point play against Villanova), and Providence has not won a road game this season. While each are going to enjoy the spoiler role until the Big East Tournament, the chance of running the table to win 5 games in 5 days for a Big East tourney victory are highly unlikely. Now we move on to the big(ger) boys.

11. Marquette (15-11, 6-7, RPI (as of Sunday, from Jerry Palm) 57- Best win: 79-57 Vs. Notre Dame Jan 10, Worst Loss: Vs. Gonzaga 66-63 Nov 23):

15-11 may not seem good enough but consider this. Gonzaga was supposed to be a much better team than they actually were this year, and I consider this their worst loss cause there really isn’t a bad loss in the bunch. They haven’t really lost to anyone they were supposed to beat. Last night their loss to St. John’s could be considered the worst cause they put up minimal effort at home. This team has got three leaders in G Jimmy Butler and Jae Crowder, and F Darius Johnson Odom. All three upperclassmen are the building blocks to a nice run in the end, but I hate to say if there’s a team who’s going to get flagged for making the Big East too excessive in the NCAA Tourney, they’re it.


10. Cincinnati (19-6, 6-6, RPI 55, Best win: 66-46 Vs. Xavier Jan 6, Worst Loss: 66-55 Vs. West Virginia Jan 29)

Without a win at St John’s on Jan 22nd, the Bearcats would have NO significant wins against the Big East. Cincy has been a big time bottom feeder. This team started 15-0 and has since gone 4-6. The fact that the RPI for this 6 loss team is in the 50’s shows Cincy fails the “who did you actually beat” test. With only one game left versus the Other 5 group mentioned in the beginning of this article, the ‘Natti could be the 2010-11version of the Pre- New Year paper tigers of College Basketball.

9. West Virginia (16-9, 7-5, RPI 22, Best win Jan 8 at Georgetown 65-59, Worst Loss Jan 19 Vs. Marshall 75-71)

Who is left from the Final Four team of a year ago that lost to Duke? Joe Missoula and Truck Bryant and that’s really it. However, the numbers seem to suggest the Mountaineers, despite only cracking the Top 25 recently, are heading back to the Big Dance. Are they even close to duplicating last year’s success? Absolutely not. Despite losing 3 of their last 4 though, and playing Notre Dame and Pitt their next two games which could easily make it 5 of 6, I feel 2 wins in the Big East tourney put them back in the postseason. If they can win one of the aforementioned games, they may not even need that much to lose their bubble tag.

8. Syracuse (8-6, 20-6, RPI 21 Best win Feb 2 at UCONN 66-58, Worst Loss 90-68 vs. Seton Hall)

When you look at this team with its 17-0 start, you think the dominance of last year. When you look at the 3-6 record since, you realize this is probably closer to the Orange people thought about in the preseason. With the growing of stars in seniors Kris Jackson and Scoop Jardine, there’s a disappointing air that goes along with the fact that this team fell into their expectations of a middle of the road Big East squad. Unlike the team we mentioned before, Cincinnati, the Orange have enough quality wins to start the year to cement their big dance spot, along with bonus wins we didn’t expect, like that win at UCONN.

7. UCONN (19-5, 7-5, RPI 13, Best Win Jan 8 At Texas 82-81 (OT), Worst Loss at St John’s 89-72)

Again, picked to finish actually lower in the pack, the UCONN Huskies have been a nice story thanks to G Kemba Walker. 22 ppg this season, although Kemba more often than not has fallen below that number in conference play. The Big East is tough, and despite the significantly improving play of Alex Oriaki, the Huskies are still too young behind their star junior. The expectations of being a national title contender early into the season have fallen, but a nice finish to the season as the Huskies might have a good road to get to another Sweet 16.

6. St. John’s (16-9, 8-5, RPI 17, Best win Jan 30 V Duke 93-78, Worst Loss at Fordham 84-81)

This is the team poised to break into that elite group of 7, and is actually better in conference than 2 of the 7 (Syracuse and UCONN). I thought an NCAA berth for a team that hasn’t seen the light of Tourney day in a decade was off the radar, and early this season I thought same old Johnnies after the back to back losses versus St Bonaventure and Fordham, but boy was I wrong. Since then, Steve Lavin’s group with TEN seniors has beaten FOUR current Top 12 teams, three by double digits. The other problem of beating legit teams on the road is fading as well. Over the last week they beat two of the teams in that “others” group: Cincy and Marquette. St John’s has swept those three “others” on the road. Despite St John’s pitfalls in the past (and panelist Jay Kaplan has seen the highs and lows), this team has 3 games against the Bottom 5 left in their season. Couple that with a few tourney wins, and the Red Storm will get to the Tourney Promised Land, finally.

5. Villanova (20-6, 8-5, RPI 20, Best win Jan 22 At Syracuse 83-72, Worst Loss Feb 9 At Rutgers 77-76)

The Wildcats don’t have Scotty Reynolds anymore (we’re sure, we checked the NBDL and we found him), but that doesn’t mean they lost talent. Truth of the matter is the Wildcats almost mirror last year’s team. But that’s not a good thing. Last year’s team started strong. This year’s team started 16-1. Last year’s team struggled down the stretch. This year’s team is currently 4-5 after that hot start. However, the two Corey’s (Stokes and Fisher, not Haim and Felman), are seniors who do not want to see an opportunity to miss a sweet 16 go by. The signs of this team not being like last year can be seen in that Syracuse win on the 22nd of last month.

4. Louisville (19-6, 8-4, RPI 24 Best win Jan 29 At UCONN 79-78 (2OT), Worst Loss Dec 14 Vs. Drexel 52-46)

Interesting team here. I feel nothing either way about this team. They can make the Elite 8 and I wouldn’t be shocked. They could be gone in the first weekend and I wouldn’t be shocked. They’re almost like whichever way the wind blow, that’s how they perform. This team is much better than the 8th seeded team on the court last year, but how much? When you looked at the aforementioned UCONN game, they played like an Elite 8 team. Even in very close losses against the next 2 teams on our list, they played like an Elite 8 team on the road. This team, especially since a loss in mid- January at Providence has played much better. The question is: how much?

3. Georgetown (20-5, 9-4, RPI 4, Best win Jan 29th At Villanova 69-66, Worst Loss Jan 8 Vs. West Virginia 65-59)

This is where you start thinking Final Four Teams. Candidate #1 is the team with the 2nd hardest schedule in America (them and St. John’s have been bouncing back and forth for that honor), but has played as well as anyone in the country this past month. Consider this: they haven’t lost in a month, have beaten three ranked teams on the road, and took one of their four league losses and avenged it with a 25 point drubbing (sorry Hoyas, you won’t have a chance to avenge the other 3). Austin Freeman is one of the true seniors in America who is excelling in the guard position, and since mid-January, upperclassmen Chris Wright and Jason Vaughn have been a solid supporting cast for the Super Senior. They, like Villanova will remember their 2010 tourney experience to make sure history doesn’t repeat itself.

2. Notre Dame (21-4, 10-3, RPI 9, Best win Jan 24 At Pitt 56-51, Worst Loss Jan 10 At Marquette 79-57)

Candidate #2 is a team that is finally free of Luke Harangody (again, we checked, he has moved on). However, the collection of talent left behind has come up and surprised us all, especially in league play. Who had Ben Hansbrough making a name for himself, getting under his Brother Tyler’s shadow? Who had Carleton Scott nearly doubling his PPG from last year and becoming a legit threat? Notre Dame has parlayed their experience into a team that has pulled off some major wins, including UCONN and the previously mentioned Pitt game. There is a good buzz for this team, that maybe, just maybe, there is a #1 seed as the true pot of gold at the end of this Irish rainbow. Only issue of some concern is all 4 of their losses have come by double digits.

1. Pittsburgh (23-2, 11-1, RPI 6, Best win Jan 12 At Georgetown 72-57, Worst Loss Dec 11 Vs. Tenn 83-76)

While their spot in the polls and standings is not a surprise, it’s still impressive. Pittsburgh has been status quo in what’s been a topsy-turvy Big East. Pitt has never been below the Top 8 in the polls all year, more importantly, not a loss outside of the city of Pittsburgh all year. The Panthers are a consistent ball club that’s had a Top 4 spot cemented in the Big Dance since January, but now comes the push for a #1 seed. To do that Ashton Gibbs and company are going to have to win important road games (they got St John’s and Louisville on the road last 2 weeks), and they will have to most likely win the Big East tourney. Do that, and Pitt maybe can finally grab that elusive Final Four they’ve been waiting so long to go to.

Tomorrow, we review the Big 12. Believe me folks when I tell you this about the conference, it’s lonely at the top.