Saturday, February 19, 2011

College Basketball Primer- Part 4

I am The Rabbi, video editor of "On The Sportslines". Welcome back to what's been your obsession. If it hasn't, what's wrong with you? This is the latest installment of the College Basketball Primer. Part 4 focuses on the Big 10 and Pac 10, but first, let's recap on what went on this week, as of the first writing....

- UCONN held serve at home against Georgetown, Louisville held serve at home against UCONN, and most surprisingly, West Virginia held serve at home against Notre Dame to get themselves close to being a tournament lock.

- St. John's beat Pitt on a last second runner by Dwight Hardy, giving the Red Storm their FOURTH victory against Top 10 teams at home, and a victory against each of the Top 3 in their conference. Almost time to put them in the field of 68.

- Nebraska got the Big 12 major victory they needed, giving Texas their first Big 12 loss this season. Back to the right side of the bubble for the Huskers? We'll see.

Now, we move on to the Big 10. This is an interesting conference. It's good, but could be much better due to the two major disappointments that have fallen during conference season.

The First Six

Although they had a victory vs Alabama in the early part of the season, teams are embarrassed when they lose to Iowa. Indiana has seen themselves beat two Top 25 teams at home, but they still may not even be NIT material. Northwestern started 8-0 and has since gone 7-10. Not good. Michigan has an overtime loss at Kansas and two single digit losses against Ohio State. Winning 5 of their last 6 can't make up for that bad non-conference schedule for the Wolverines. Penn State may be .500 in conference, but they are just not on the radar for a spot on the bubble.

Minnesota (17-9, 6-8, Real Time RPI 41, Best win Nov 19 Vs. UNC 72-67, Worst Loss Feb 2 At Indiana 60-57)

You need an owner's manual to understand the Gophers. Their 11-1 start included wins over UNC and West Virginia. They lost 3 consecutive road games versus Ohio St., Michigan St., and Wisconsin, then rattled off 4 straight W's. But, once again they fell in the tank losing 5 of their last 6. With the (and I hate to repeat it) weak bubble in 2011, the Gophers are still on the right side of it...for now. With 3 out of their last 4 at home (And the road game being Northwestern), one slip up and we won't see Tubby Smith in a familiar place... March.

Michigan State (14-11, 6-7, RPI 48, Best win Dec 31 Vs. Minnesota 71-62, Worst Loss Feb 2 at Iowa 72-52)

Tom Petty's Free Fallin is becoming the team anthem for the Michigan State Spartans. Can you believe this is the same team that was ranked #2 in the pre-season? This team had Kalin Lucas, Draymond Green, Darell Summers, and ALL the players who went to back to back final fours. Just like Korey Lucious on the court, this team has truly disappeared (well, Lucious got booted off....). The Spartans have looked like a champion on the court, but played like a chump. Why they are still in the mix for an at-large is any one's guess, but they don't have too long to go before they fall out of the conversation.

Illinois (17-9, 7-6, RPI 38, Best Win Jan 2 Vs. Wisconsin 69-61, Worst Loss Dec 18 Vs. UIC 57-54)

For those who care, UIC is the University of Illinois at Chicago. They're 7-21 right now. But now to the true rose of Illinois, the Illini have been a mild disappointment, well actually more of a level 3 disappointment this year. What could have easily been a dark horse final four candidate is barely holding on to relevance in the national scene. Senior Demetri McCamey is kind of the leader and represents this team as a whole. He has shown signs of promise early, but has tailed off throughout the conference season despite still putting up pretty good numbers. Illinois, losers of 6 of their last 9, has better profiles than the other 2 teams above them. However, that's saying very little.

Wisconsin (19-6, 9-4, RPI 18, Best win Feb 12 Vs. Ohio St 71-67, Worst Loss Jan 29 At Penn St 56-52)

When everybody picks their favorites in the Big 10 every year, the Badgers are not there. We're virtually surprised every single year when we see the Badgers have a sustained run at the top of the conference. When will it stop? Not this year, the Badgers with the combo of G Jordan Taylor and F Jon Leuer can give them enough big shots to get to the 2nd weekend of the tournament. A lot of the teams who will get into this tourney have done it on signature home victories...but I do think Wisconsin has enough talent to win at any site in March.

Purdue (21-5, 10-3, RPI 9, Best win Feb 16 Vs. Wisconsin 70-62, Worst Loss Nov 27 Vs. Richmond 65-54)

Purdue is cursed. The Boilemakers were poised for a huge tourney run when star Robbie Hummel went down right near tourney time last year. Purdue was a Sweet 16 team but it could have been more. Purdue was poised for even more this season, then Hummel's pre-season injury turned a Top 5 team to a Top 15 team. I will give this team some credit though, the 'Makers are a very tough team, as seniors Juwan Johnson and E'Twaun Moore have proved to us with their 20 point games night in and night out. However, unlike the unlimited potential of Purdue with Hummel, there is a ceiling with this version of Purdue. Probably another Sweet 16 appearance.

Ohio State (25-1, 12-1, RPI 4, Best win Nov 16 At Florida 93-75, Worst Loss (and only one) Feb 16 Vs. Wisconsin 70-62)

Simply put, I think Ohio State has played like the best team in the country this year. Can they sustain this with the lack of depth on their bench? I have no idea whatsoever. But I do know this fact, there is no player that has impressed me more this year than Jared Sullinger. In the beginning of the season, Sullinger was breaking down D's with 30+ ppg performances. In, conference season Sullinger has been playing like a great teammate and has shown flashes of brilliance to be my player of the year. Sorry Jimmer Fredette, but Sullinger is someone you FEAR when he steps onto the court. The one downside about Ohio State is this: they get tired, and get tired fast. I hope to God this team keeps up their performance all the way to the Final Four in Houston.

And now the Pac-10. The league is not as weak as it was last year, but it's still a distant 6th when it comes to the Big 6 conferences and could be behind conferences this year like the MWC.

The Pretenders

Arizona State has fallen far from the James Harden days, despite getting a big victory today against Washington State. Oregon State has lost 10 out of their last 12 (not like they had a chance at an at-large anyway). Cal has followed 4 straight victories with 4 straight losses as of this writing and they are fighting for .500 and an NIT berth. Stanford beat DePaul in OT and they are not a team you should struggle to beat. USC has lost by 20 to Rider, almost beat Kansas at Lawrence, and actually DID blowout #1 ranked Texas. Yeah, that's a little schizo. Oregon had a small run as a power in basketball, but that was a while ago.

Washington State (17-10, 7-8, RPI 73, Best win Jan 30 Vs. Washington 87-80, Worst Loss Feb 3 At Oregon 69-43)

I'm only putting them on here cause it would have been depressing to put 3 teams for a major conference. The Cougars, who beat a team with a lot of pre-season hype in Baylor during their non-conference season, have tailed off since they started Pac- 10 play. Like it or not West Coasters, a sub .500 record in a 7th or 8th best conference does nothing to get you an at-large. This team could easily win the Pac-10 tournament, but if they don't, it's NIT city for Wazzou.

Washington (18-8, 10-5, RPI 37, Best win Dec 31 At UCLA 74-63, Worst Loss Feb 3 At Oregon State 68-56)

The Huskies are in a major state of limbo. Before the season began, this former Pac-10 favorite has seen both Arizona and UCLA leap over them, and the traditional Pac-10 powers are the only ones solidly in the field of 68. The small wonder, Junior G Isiah Thomas, has led this team in points per game. The Huskies had a bad stretch of losing 3 straight road games against a Pac-10 murderers row: Washington State and the Oregon's (that sarcastic enough?). Washington could be one of the bigger disappointments if they continue on their roller coaster into mid-March.

UCLA (19-7, 10-3, RPI 36, Best win Dec 18 86-79 Vs. BYU, Worst Loss Dec 5 66-57 Vs. Montana)

UCLA has had a very surprising season this year. They are loaded with youth in sophomore Reeves Nelson; they have experience in Junior Malcolm Lee and they have a Final Four veteran at coach in Ben Howland. Winners of 10 of their last 11, they have improved in-season at all positions and have taken what could have been an ultimate bubble team into a tourney team. UCLA looks to me like an #8 or #9 seed that could put the fear of God in a #1 seed in the 2nd, excuse me, now 3rd round of the NCAA tourney.

Arizona (23-4, 12-2, RPI 17, Best win Jan 27 Vs. UCLA 85-74, Worst Loss Jan 2 at Oregon St 76-75)

Sophomore Derrick Williams, with 19 points and 8 rebounds a game, has led this Wildcat team BACK into the tournament picture. They may not be as strong as other conference leaders, but all Arizona seems to do is win lately. They've won 8 straight, 11 of their last 12 and had a non-conference season where they only led twice. Not a lot of people expected somebody like Derrick Williams to be the leader for Pac-10 Player of the Year, and no one expected Arizona to be this strong in conference. I wouldn't pick against this team in the first weekend of the tourney.

Tomorrow, our college basketball preview concludes when we look at 12 teams to look for in March. These smaller conference teams could be shooting up (or down) to Houston in March.

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