By The Rabbi - OTSL Producer/Video Editor
Peach Bowl: (18) Houston vs. (9) Florida State (-6.5)
Florida State has been a team that, with Jameis Winston at QB, has been used to making playoff appearances and national title games. Now? This team is back in the position they were at before the boy wonder came to Tallahassee: good but not necessarily good enough. They are the beneficiary (or loser) of having to play the Group of 5's, New Year’s Six nominee in Atlanta.
The Seminoles are here because they lost the biggest game on their schedule (a 23-13 loss to Clemson) AND because they had their big upset along the way (to Georgia Tech). They ended the season hot, including a stone cold beat down of their in-state rival Florida 27-2. The transfer of Everett Golson was supposed to keep this team in the national title picture, but Golson disappointed and he’s not even here for this game. Sean Maguire - last year's #2 QB - is leading the team and is putting up numbers similar to Golson's. The defense for FSU is a lot better than they were months ago though, and Houston hasn’t seen a defense like this.
Houston gets this big bowl as a big reward for the work they did in the AAC. The AAC had FOUR ranked teams at points this year (3 in the final CFP standings), and Houston was their champ. If not for a letdown against UCONN, the Cougars would be coming into this bowl with an undefeated season. Their coach, former Ohio State Offensive Coordinator Tom Herman, has made this offense more dynamic in 2015. Their QB, Greg Ward Jr. - who is as much of a weapon with his feet as he is with his arm - has led the offense to 10 more points per game this year as compared to last year and if you get into a shooting match with them, you are could be in serious trouble.
FSU was in a similar situation three years ago going up against an upstart Northern Illinois team. They dominated that game and Jimbo Fisher isn’t the type of coach to lose games like this.
The Pick: FSU 31, Houston 20
Now, for the co-main events.
Orange Bowl: (4) Oklahoma (-3.5) vs. (1) Clemson
Yup, you read that right. Oklahoma, a team coming out of the much maligned Big 12, has a week longer of rust (or rest depending on your point of view) before facing the SAME EXACT TEAM they lost to in last year in the Russell Athletic Bowl 40-6. The Sooners are the favorite in this game, but both teams are different than they were last year.
For Clemson, it’s about belief, and much more importantly, the "Us Against The World" mentality the team has had in 2015. They finally beat Florida State for the first time in a while, and also ground out (and I really mean ground out) a close victory versus Notre Dame earlier in the year. Their coach Dabo Sweeney has prided the team in two major things: dancing and proving everyone wrong. Pretty much 50/50 with that.
On the field, Deshaun Watson has been the star that almost everyone thought he would be when he was recruited by the Tigers. He showed some improvement operating in the pocket this season (although he only averaged 12 yards a completion, which is slightly below what you want from under center these days) and more importantly, made fewer mistakes. That leadership from the QB position made Watson a Heisman Trophy finalist, though he finished a distant third. Watson didn’t play in last year’s bowl game and now leading freshman receiver Deon Cain will not be in the game either, due to a drug suspension. Still this team has enough depth at the WR position that Cain's absence should not be a big deal. What is a big deal however, is Clemson’s defense. The Tigers love to blitz and is one of the nation’s best in getting sacks and stopping the run. They live in their opponent’s backfield.
Oklahoma put up offensive numbers that are Big 12-worthy, but played just enough defense to make others take notice. In their games against TCU, Baylor and Oklahoma State, they had a good enough defensive scheme to slow each down, though all three having injuries to their regular starting QB’s when they played the Sooners no doubt helped. Deshaun Watson is the most talented QB the Sooners will have to face.
However, the most talented QB on the field, in my opinion, is Baker Mayfield. He had almost 4,000 yards of total offense (rushing and passing) and he was as good, if not better than every QB in the country; especially in the final half of the college football season. Mayfield has the same dual threat capability that Watson does, but he does get sacked. A LOT. 34 times this season. That does not bode well when facing a Clemson team that (as I said) lives in their opponent's backfield.
After all of that, I hate to say it, but I agree with the crowd. Oklahoma will outlast Clemson in this one and move onto the national title game in Arizona.
The Pick: Oklahoma 35, Clemson 31
Cotton Bowl: (3) Michigan State vs. (2) Alabama
Alabama had their “Come to Jesus” game early in the season: a Week 3 loss to Ole Miss. Michigan State has had about five “Come to Jesus” moments this season; not limited to, but highlighted by a last second win at Rutgers; a win over Ohio State without their starting QB; the longest drive of the college football season to beat Iowa to win the Big 10; and of course the Michigan screw up on a punt which gave the Spartans a walk-off win midseason. Though these two teams met back in the 2010 Capital One Bowl (where Alabama dominated 49-7), the Spartans are a much different program now.
Connor Cook has the leadership that is desperately needed in this game. However, since suffering a shoulder injury in November, he hasn’t been giving the Spartans the production they have come to expect from their Senior QB. Cook’s bowl game performances have been so solid, that hopefully the 25 days of rest leading up to this game for the Spartans will make Cook’s shoulder (and by extension his game) whole again. Many teams have stayed in the game with Alabama this year and a healthy Cook can blow a game open.
Michigan State's defense is CLEARLY lacking in comparison to Alabama's, but the Spartans have been able to take care of mediocre QB play this year. Sorry to say Crimson Tide fans, but Jacob Coker is the embodiment of mediocre QB play. The Spartans can make a team one dimensional, which is the biggest thing MSU has going for them in this game against Alabama.
The Flip Side of that coin is that 'Bama's one dimension is a FREAKIN' Heisman trophy winner in RB Derrick Henry. He gets 30+ carries a game (though only 14 in the Ole Miss loss) and will be the man Michigan State will game plan their entire defensive scheme around stopping. They did a good job stopping Ezekiel Elliott in their win over Ohio State, but Elliott only got 12 carries in that game. Henry has already gashed one Big 10 team in Dallas (the Tide beat Wisconsin here on opening Saturday) and he just might do it again.
There are not enough words to describe just how GOOD this Alabama defense is. There are LOADS of NFL Talent on this team and that talent has shined brightly (we're talking megawatts here) on the field this season. The key is going to be whether Connor Cook can outplay Jacob Coker by a wide enough margin to keep this really game close. My Prediction is no. I think Michigan State plays into Alabama’s hands and the dream season ends for Sparty.
The Pick: Alabama 31, Michigan State 17
NEXT UP: The New Year’s Day games. That post is going to be a lot less wordy. I swear.
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