IF IT'S OCTOBER, I MUST BE TALKING YANKEE POST-SEASON BASEBALL

Greetings sports fans, Jay from “On The Sportslines” here. Been awhile, but it IS October, so that means it’s once again time for my Yankee Playoff Blog.

As those of you who followed my posts after each playoff game last year remember, I was quietly confident that the Bronx Bombers would bring home World Series Title number 27 in the inaugural year of the New Cathedral of Baseball (or the if you prefer, “The House That Derek and George Built”).

This post-season, my position on the defending champs is “Cautiously Optimistic”. Now granted, back in April on the On The Sportslines 4/8/10 - Final Four/Baseball Preview edition I did pick a Yankees-Phillies rematch for my Fall Classic prediction, but that was before several things that seemed to be strengths on paper for the Yankees turned into either question marks or outright weakness. Let’s review shall we?

STARTING PITCHING

Last year the Yankees had MLB’s best starting rotation and rode their top 3 of CC Sabathia, Andy Pettitte and AJ Burnett to their World Series win. This year, Carsten Charles is the only one of the three to have numbers even close to last year’s, going 21-7 with a 3.18 era after a 19-8 and 3.37 season last year. Old Man Pettitte’s 2010 numbers of 11-3 and 3.28 are pretty good, but his season was plagued by stints on the DL which is always a cause for concern with a 38-year-old pitcher. As for AJ, well, 2010 was hands down his worst season EVER. 10-15 with a 5.26 ERA and an average start of only 5.6 innings. Unacceptable numbers for even a number 5 starter, let alone a number 2. Thus Allan James finds himself out of this post-season’s rotation, replaced by Phil Hughes whose 18-8 record and 4.19 ERA are a little deceptive. The baby of the rotation went 11-2 with a 3.65 ERA in the 1st half, but only 7-6 with a 4.90 ERA after the All-Star break. Did he hit the wall? Is he out of gas? We’ll see come game 3.

The bottom line people is that this post-season, if the Yankees are going to add another trophy to the case, they will have to outhit/outscore their opponents because they really can’t count on getting shut-down starts from their rotation.

RELIEF PITCHING

Last year the Yankees Bullpen was the type of bullpen that we saw in the early Joe Torre years. With Mike Stanton and Jeff Nelson setting up Mariano Rivera, if the Yankees had a lead after 6 innings, you could channel Don Meredith: “Say good-night, the party’s over.” With Phil Hughes, Joba Chamberlain, David Robertson averaging better than a strikeout per inning, setting up the Ageless Rivera, the Yankee pen threw gas past every opponent on the way to that World Series title.

This year, Mariano has been his usual self. Though his saves dropped from 44 to 33, he still shut teams down in the 9th. The case can be made that the drop was due in large part to the number games the Yankees had to come from behind to win – a stat in which they led MLB. As for his set-up crew, well they were an erratic bunch for most of the season. Chamberlain forgot how to get hitters out, gave up gopher balls seemingly every time he stepped on the mound and generally pitched himself out of the 8th inning role. Chan Ho Park was a disaster (one of Brian Cashman’s WORST moves), Damaso Marte and Swiss Army Knife Alfredo Aceves (10-1 out of the pen in 2009) battled injuries and only recently have Robertson, Boone Logan (who has replaced Marte as the Lefty Specialist) and Kerry Wood (jury is still out on this pick-up Brian) started to show the form that the Yankees will need from them in the post-season. So while this year’s pen is not as lights out as last year’s, they are still a force to be reckoned with if they are handed a lead.

OFFENSE

Here’s the where things get tricky. Yes, once again, the Yankees led the Majors in runs per game (5.3) and On Base % (.350); 2nd in walks (662) and OPS (.786) and were 3rd in HRs (201) and Slugging % (.436).

However, this year’s usual starting lineup (450 PA’s or better) only had 2 players hit .285 or better (Robinson Cano, .319 and Nick Swisher, .288), last year they had 5. Last year they had 7 players hit better than 20 HRs, this year only 5. Last year, 7 players topped 80 RBI, this year, only 4. And then there is Derek Jeter who set career lows for batting average (.270), on base % (.340) and slugging % (.370) and led MLB in outs made. Out of the leadoff spot. Not good. Only a late season tear (8-18 over his last 4 games - .444) got his average up to .270. Then again, we shouldn’t be surprised by Jeter’s closing the season on a tear, October (and November) is where the Yankee Captain shines. We’ll see if he rises to the moment this year.

Ultimately, despite the fact that this year’s version of the Bronx Bombers more resembles a Cruise Missle compared to last year’s version which was closer to a Tactical Nuke, this is still one hell of a potent offense. Remember, as I said earlier, this team led the majors in come from behind wins with 48. They NEVER think they are out of a game. They still do the things they did well last year. Take pitches (Brett Gardner is among the league leaders in pitches seen per plate appearance), work counts, get on base and get your starter out of the game early. They make you pay for mistakes. They also have something that only a World Series title gives you: they KNOW they can beat anyone they face. Call it confidence, call it arrogance, call it the Ghost of George Steinbrenner, call it whatever you want, they believe it. They may be in the unfamiliar position of underdog in this post-season, but they are the most dangerous underdog you’ll ever face.

Game 1

Yeah, I know I took the long road to get here, but last night’s game one was a microcosm of the points I made above. The starting pitching wasn’t lights out (Sabathia gave up 4 runs on 5 hits in 6 innings of work), but the bullpen did its job (no runs over the last 3 innings) and the Yankee bats came alive late to take their post-season opener 6-4 thanks to big hits by Curtis Granderson and Mark Teixeira. Yes, there was yet ANOTHER blown call by the umps on that fly ball to Greg Golson. All I’ll say about that is something I’ve said 876,432 times before: “Hey Bud! How many blown calls will it take for you to embrace the tech to eliminate such mistakes?”

That the Yankees won shouldn’t really surprise anyone (not even Twins fans). This is the Twins the Yankees are facing and after last year we all know the numbers. The Yankees are now 10-2 against them in the postseason, including a run of 7 straight counting last night’s win.

Game 2 is tonight and the Yankees will send the winningest pitcher in MLB postseason history to the mound in Andy Pettitte. He will be opposed by former teammate Carl Pavano, who had a career year going 17-11 with a 3.75 ERA in the Twin Cities. But none of those wins (or losses) came against the Yankees. Will the Twins finally snap that postseason 0-6 home record against the Yankees tonight? We’ll know in about 4 hours.