Friday, March 18, 2011
Tuesday, March 08, 2011
I am The Rabbi, Video Editor of "On The Sportslines". This is the greatest week of the college basketball year for a lot of people, and for me the greatest week on the sports calendar. No week has as much intrigue and action as the week before the NCAA tournament in college basketball. Over the next two days, all of the big conference tourneys kick off around the country. Here are nine big conference tournaments to get you ready for the big week in Part 2 of our championship week preview. I will be providing the brackets on each of these tournaments so click the link to play along.
Big East Tournament (Tuesday-Saturday, New York City)
http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/tournaments/conference/BIGE/big-east-tournament-bracket
At-Large Locks: Pittsburgh, Notre Dame, Louisville, Syracuse, St. John's, West Virginia, Cincinnati, Georgetown, UCONN, Villanova
Looking Good, needs a win: Marquette
Game to watch: Wed, UCONN vs. Georgetown/DePaul
Unless the DePaul Blue Demons pull off the upset they did last year as a #16 seed, the opener on Wednesday will see two of the better teams in the country who have fallen on hard times lately. Both lost 4 out of their last 5 to end the season but are too talented to lose more momentum here. The loser here could be as low as a #7 seed in the NCAA tournament.
Honorable Mention: Thursday, Syracuse vs. St. John's/Seton Hall/Rutgers
Madison Square Garden loves a local match up, and anyway you slice it, they'll get one here. The match up we are all shooting for is Syracuse vs. St. John's. The only loss the Red Storm have at Madison Square Garden this season is against the Orange, and it wasn't even close. If Lavin's boys can get payback, they are looking at a top 4 seeding at come Selection Sunday.
Prediction: Notre Dame
The Fighting Irish have never actually made the tournament finals of the Big East. I think they'll get there for the first time, and beat Pitt in the finals, maybe making both teams #1 seeds when the brackets come out Sunday.
Atlantic 10 Tournament (Tuesday-Sunday, Atlantic City (Fri.-Sun.),
http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/tournaments/conference/ATL10/atlantic-10--tournament-bracket
At-Large Locks: Xavier, Temple
Needs Work to get in: Richmond
Game To Watch: Friday, Rhode Island/St. Louis vs. Richmond
Richmond has played on the edge most of the season and each of their four losses in 2011 have put them closer and closer to losing out on an at-large. A win here on Friday should vault the Spiders into the field of 68 and probably keep them out of that First Four round in Dayton. Rhode Island is dangerous though, they beat Richmond in their only meeting this year 78-74.
Honorable Mention: Semifinal #1, March 12 1pm
Bubble teams all across the country will watch this game closely, because if #1 seed Xavier doesn't come out victorious in it, Sunday's final will have a lot of those "last team in" schools on pins and needles. If any of the other nine teams win this tourney outside of the ones mentioned here, the A-10 is most likely getting a 4th bid that they never would have gotten before.
Prediction: Xavier
Outside of a fluke loss against #11 seed Charlotte in February, the Musketeers are unblemished in the A-10. It stays that way after this week. They'll beat Temple in the finals.
Pac 10 Tournament (Wendesday- Saturday, Los Angeles)
http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/tournaments/conference/PAC10/pac-10-tournament-bracket
At-Large Locks: Arizona, UCLA
Looking Good, Needs a win: Washington
Needs work to get in: USC, Washington State
Game To Watch: Washington vs. Washington State
The Apple Cup's third meeting takes place on Thursday, and it's an important one. A lot of people believe the Huskies are still an at-large lock, but I do not. The Cougars have beaten the Huskies in BOTH of their regular season meetings, and a 3rd win would give both teams at least 20 wins. There's no major difference in my opinion in the non-conference schedules, so why should Wazzou be put in a lesser standard if they sweep their rivals?
Honorable Mention: USC vs. Cal
USC has sneaked up on some people lately. A win here in the 2nd quarterfinal on Thursday, along with a win versus what would most likely be Arizona on Friday, could give the Trojans a resume with enough wins (20) and victories (2) over likely Top 5 seeds in the NCAA tourney. That could be enough to sneak USC into the field of 68.
Prediction: UCLA
Since December, the Bruins have only lost once inside the state of California. I believe they beat USC in the final, and that BOTH teams make the tournament at the end of it all.
Conference USA (Wed.-Sat., El Paso, Tex,)
http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/tournaments/conference/USA/conference-usa-tournament-bracket
Needs Work to get in: Memphis
Game To Watch: Friday, UAB-East Carolina/UCF vs. Memphis- Southern Miss/Tulane
Boy, that's a mouthful. If all holds form, UAB and Memphis will play in this C-USA semifinal on Friday, and it could be a highly competitive game. UAB won 7 out of their last 8 games to end the season. The only loss? Memphis, who boasts the only at-large chances for the conference, due to a strong non-conference schedule, despite losing most of their important non-conference games.
Honorable Mention: Thursday, Tulsa vs. SMU/Rice
Tulsa is a team who could be a problem on their side of the bracket, and this is their first chance to shine. An easy win here puts them into a possible match up in the semifinals with UTEP, who's on their home court for this tourney.
Prediction: UTEP
UTEP's only lost once at home in-conference this season. I believe the home court advantage of the Don Haskins Center will lead the Miners to a victory over Memphis in the finals, although it won't be as dominating as their 27-point victory less than two weeks ago over the Tigers.
Big 12 Tournament (Wed.- Sat., Kansas City, MO)
http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/tournaments/conference/BIG12/big-12-tournament-bracket
At-Large Locks: Kansas, Texas, Texas A&M, Missouri, Kansas State
Needs Work: Colorado, Baylor, Nebraska
Game To Watch: Thur, Texas vs. Baylor/Oklahoma
As mentioned many times in this column, the Baylor Bears have totally underachieved this year and need to get a big time victory this week in Kansas City. If they get by the Sooners, will go up against Texas. Baylor has faced the Longhorns twice this season and been disappointed both times in the final minutes. A win here though could give the Bears what very few bubble teams can get this late in the season: a win over a top 10 team. Baylor may not even need to win their next game to make the tourney.
Honorable Mention: Thur, Kansas St. vs. Iowa St./Colorado
Out of the three teams that needs work to secure their spot in the field of 68, the team in the best shape is Colorado. That doesn't mean the margin for error isn't small for the Buffaloes. They definitely need a win this Wednesday against Iowa State, who they lost to just a week ago. Then, they'll need to beat Kansas State to make the Big 12 semifinals. While the Colorado swept K-State this season, both wins were before K-State destroyed Kansas in Manhattan on Valentine's Day. Kansas State has been a whole different animal since then, looking more like the preseason Top 5 team that a lot of people expected.
Prediction: Kansas
The Jayhawks have been a force in the Big 12 all year. In fact, I think the bigger challenge for Kansas will be in the semifinals, when Kansas State or Colorado should be waiting for them. The winner of that game will have a lot of momentum and give Kansas a great fight. However, I think Kansas prevails there and over Missouri in the Big 12 final, securing a #1 seed.
Mountain West Tournament (Wendesday-Saturday, Las Vegas)
http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/tournaments/conference/MWC/mountain-west-tournament-bracket
At-Large Locks: UNLV, BYU, San Diego State
Needs Work: Colorado State
Game To Watch: Colorado St. vs. New Mexico
Colorado State struggled at the end of the season, but if the right games break their way, they could make it into the tourney with two wins. Unfortunately, momentum is certainly going against the Rams. They've lost 4 out of their last 5 and will certainly have to beat BYU and San Diego State to get a definite tourney spot. CSU is 0-4 against the MWC's big 2 this season.
Honorable mention: Wyoming/TCU-BYU vs. Colorado St./New Mexico
Assuming that BYU gets past their quarterfinal, which is very likely but certainly not a given with the indefinite suspension of F Brandon Davies, this is a great semifinal. On one hand if Colorado State wins, they may be playing for a tournament spot against the class of the MWC. If New Mexico wins, BYU will look for payback as the Cougars will face a team they've lost to twice this year, both games weren't even close.
Prediction: San Diego State
The combination of Brandon Davies not being there and the Aztecs wanting revenge for their two losses, I predict the boys from Cali beat BYU in the finals, assuring them of a #2 seed in the NCAA's, knocking down BYU to a #3 seed (cue the mid-major groaning).
Big 10 Tournament (Thursday-Sunday, Indianapolis)
http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/tournaments/conference/BIG10/big-10-tournament-bracket
At-Large Locks: Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin, Illinois
Looking Good, Needs A Win: Michigan
Needs Work: Michigan State
Game To Watch: Michigan vs. Illinois
The fortunes of both of these teams have changed over the last few weeks. There is no team that has zoomed their way onto the bubble like Michigan. Even in my College Basketball Primer, they were an afterthought. Now, they are the only thought that teams have in the Big 10. The Wolverines won 6 out of their last 8, with the two losses in that streak coming by a combined three points. The Illini are one of the two teams to beat the Wolverines in that stretch. The winner of this Big 10 quarterfinal is in the tournament. While the loser may be in as well, they will be doing a lot of sweating till Sunday.
Honorable Mention: Michigan State-Iowa vs. Purdue
Michigan State HAS to beat Iowa. If not, there should be no logical reason why a 14 loss team like the Spartans - who will have lost twice to Iowa - should be in the field of 68. If MSU makes it to the quarters, this matchup is just as pivotal to their tourney hopes. Both of Purdue's victories over Michigan State have been by double digits, including a 20-point victory at East Lansing less than two weeks ago. Michigan State may have more to play for, but Purdue may be pissed after losing to Iowa this past Saturday.
Prediction: Ohio State
On a neutral court, no team in the country is better than the Buckeyes. They have veteran leadership that's been in the tourney before, they have a super freshman in Jared Sullinger who can dominate games just like Evan Turner and Greg Oden before him, and they have a team who is battle tested in big tourney games as well. I believe Ohio State beats Wisconsin in the finals of the Big 10 to secure the #1 overall seed.
SEC Tournament (Thursday-Sunday, Atlanta)
http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/tournaments/conference/SEC/sec-tournament-bracket
At-Large Locks: Florida, Kentucky, Tennessee, Vanderbilt
Needs Work: Alabama, Georgia
Game To Watch: Alabama vs. Auburn-Georgia
Just like last year in the SEC, the SEC West champion is most certainly not guaranteed an SEC Tournament bid. The 4th seed in the SEC East, Georgia has had a nice year, but their lack of big victories is catching up to them. So, what's the only way to get a big victory? Beat your opponent on Friday. Alabama is guaranteed to be here, Georgia's gonna need to beat SEC West bottom resident Auburn. Whether it be for Alabama or Georgia, Friday is desperation day in this Quarterfinal opener.
Honorable Mention: Tennessee-Arkansas vs. Florida
Florida has a huge resume, that coupled with an SEC title, could seriously give them consideration for a #2 seed. Arkansas will be a decent challenge for Tennessee, and has actually win against them in their only match back in February. The winner of that game should be a good opener for Florida, despite Florida winning all three meetings against both the Vols and Razorbacks this year. If Florida gets upset here, watch out because that opens up the SEC tourney big time.
Prediction: Florida
Florida has won 8 out of their last 9 and only lost three games in SEC play. All three losses were by single digits. Florida is showing a bit of the magic that they showed in their back-to-back national title seasons. Remember, the Gators were a #3 seed when they won the tourney for the very first time. This could be the start of something special for Florida.
ACC Tournament (Thursday-Sunday, Greensboro)
http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/tournaments/conference/ACC/acc-tournament-bracket
At-Large Locks: Duke, North Carolina, Florida State
Looking Good, but needs a win: Clemson
Needs Work: Boston College, Virginia Tech
Game To Watch: Clemson vs. Boston College-Wake Forest
The ACC has been a very weak conference this year outside of the Top Three, but if BC continues on to this quarterfinal, a very well defined 4th bid from the conference will be handed out right here. Clemson has a good resume, enhanced by the very thin bubble. Despite losses to both Yale AND Harvard, the Eagles have done better during the latter portion of conference season, winning 4 out of their last 6 and having a very close game at regular season champion North Carolina. Despite the youth of both sides this year, one rookie head coach: either BC's Steve Donohue or Clemson's Brad Brownell will be going dancing with a win here.
Honorable Mention: Virginia Tech/Georgia Tech vs. Florida State
The Hokies will need to win twice: their quarterfinal on Thursday and this possible game on Friday. Over the last two years, Virginia Tech has been the ultimate bubble team and this year is no different. After what could have been a season and program defining win against Duke, the Hokies lost twice in the last week in the regular season against Clemson and BC. If Seth Greenberg EVER wants to make a second tourney appearance, his boys will definitely have to win two and possibly three ACC tourney games.
Prediction: Virginia Tech
Going out on a HUGE limb here. The Hokies are gonna recognize the talent that made them a Top 25 team at season's beginning. They'll beat both Duke and UNC in consecutive days to put them off the bubble and very much IN the NCAA tourney.
So, happy watching to all this Conference Tournament Week. Selection Sunday is just days away so I urge you all to enjoy all the madness this week. Every moment you get this week as a fan to watch a conference tournament game, do it. This is truly the most wonderful time of the year, perhaps in all of sports. I am The Rabbi, and I am out.
Friday, March 04, 2011
Thursday, March 03, 2011
Saturday, February 26, 2011
I'm The Rabbi, Video Editor of "On The Sportslines". This is the last week of the regular season for the major conferences and for some mid-majors, the start of their conference tournaments. The results of these games will shape the field of 68. Today, we focus on the regular season games that will impact bubble teams and seeding in the marquee conference tourneys.
Monday, 2/28
Kansas State At Texas
Why to Watch: Since I made the College Basketball Primer a week and a half ago, the fortunes of these teams have reversed. K-State has won 4 in row, including a win over Kansas and doing what Texas didn't do in that same time span: beat Nebraska on the road. Now that the Wildcats have firmly positioned themselves in the NCAA's, maybe they can move their seeding up in the Big 12 tourney (they are currently 5th). Texas might be out of running for a #1 NCAA seed with a loss in this game. The Longhorns lost to Nebraska and Colorado in consecutive weeks, after having an undefeated record in-conference until that game in Lincoln.
Tuesday, 3/1
Vanderbilt At Kentucky
This will be a battle for 2nd place in the SEC East, which gets you a bye into the quarterfinals of the conference tournament. Kentucky got a huge victory today against Florida at home, and winning against Vandy will establish some good momentum going into the postseason. The Commodores have won 6 out of their last 7, with their only loss coming at home against Tennessee. Vandy and Kentucky are also fighting for a possible Top 4 seed in the NCAA tourney.
Alabama At Florida
Tuesday is an SEC-fest in terms of tournament implications. Due to Georgia's struggles of late, Alabama has moved up in the SEC pecking order when it comes to who's making the tourney from there. However, the Crimson Tide aren't stable in their tournament position just yet, especially after a loss today at Ole Miss. A win over a Top 20 team on the road will create a ton of stability for their postseason spot. While Florida is assured the East's #1 seed in the upcoming SEC tournament, the Gators still have a trip at Vanderbilt in the wings next Saturday. A loss here could leave the SEC East regular-season champs with a 3 game losing streak going into the conference tourney.
Wednesday, 3/2
Cincinnati At Marquette
This week, both teams scored the marquee wins that make the possibility of 11 teams from the Big East getting into the tourney more likely. However, Guard Darius Johnson-Odom and the Golden Eagles need another statement victory this week. That statement is also needed by the road team, the Bearcats. Cincy has won 3 in a row, FINALLY getting one more big road win against Georgetown in that span. The winner here probably becomes the 10th lock from the Big East in the NCAA tournament, the loser may need a solid run in the Big East Tournament to become part of the field of 68.
Utah State At New Mexico State
Why is there a WAC game here in this post? It's because of the Utah State Aggies, that's why. At 25-3, Utah State has a marquee profile. However, they need every single win possible to make sure a conference tournament loss doesn't send them into the NIT. The New Mexico State Aggies want to sew up the #2 seed in the WAC conference tournament, and would make a huge statement to Utah State for a third possible meeting 10 days later in the WAC Tournament Final.
Thursday, 3/3
UCLA At Washington
There are 3 Pac-10 hopefuls for the NCAA's, and these are two of them. The Bruins had a win today over previously streaking Arizona by 22 points, putting them in a tie with the Wildcats for first in the Pac-10. To gain a #1 seed to the Pac-10 tournament at the Staples Center, the Bruins will need a win in order to downgrade the tourney hopes of the Huskies. Washington is still on the right side of the bubble....for now. A loss here will almost force Isaiah Thomas (no relation to you know who, thank God) and Washington to win at least one game in the Pac-10 tourney to cement their NCAA spot. The team from the Pacific Northwest does not want to leave anything to chance.
Saturday, 3/5
Michigan State At Michigan
The Spartans and Wolverines are natural basketball rivals, but they never have been good at the same time. That's still the case as they are both very mediocre. Despite a win today at Minnesota, there have been few times when Michigan has impressed the public with their victories this year. The Wolverines will need to win here and follow that with at least a semi-final run in the Big-10 tournament to give them bubble consideration. The Spartans are currently 16-11 and in my view, will need 20 wins to assure themselves a NCAA tourney spot. Michigan State's roller coaster ride has been up a little more lately, but the Spartans have lost the luster they came in with to start the season. They have Purdue at home tomorrow, Iowa on Wednesday, and this game on Saturday remaining. With a sweep of all three games, the Spartans can gain some shine back.
Texas At Baylor
As mentioned earlier, Texas has lost on the road the previous two Saturdays against inferior opponents. The Bears are a little stronger than Nebraska or Colorado, the two teams that beat Texas. Baylor is 6-7 in-conference (they play Texas A & M tonight) and can not afford to end up with a losing record in the Big 12, which is weaker than it was last year. The bubble may be weak, but if Baylor keeps stumbling (they've lost 3 of their last 4), the Bears will go from Elite 8 in 2010 to no dance in 2011. Baylor played Texas very close on the road in that early February loss. Perhaps with the scene changing to Waco, the result - for Baylor - will change as well.
Duke At North Carolina
Come on, it's the Blue Devils and the Tar Heels! You don't need a reason to watch! This network prime time game will match up the ACC's two best teams. Outside of a blemish at Georgia Tech, no one has figured out North Carolina....except Duke. The Blue Devils won the first matchup between the two back in the beginning of February, when Guard Nolan Smith went for 34 points in a 79-73 victory for the home team. Smith is starting to get mentioned in the national player of the year race. Duke overcame a 14 point deficit at halftime in the UNC game to get the victory that has kept them on top of the ACC for most of the season. A win at home by the Tar Heels will most likely give UNC a share of the ACC Title. I don't think Duke wants to share with anyone.
Sunday, 3/6
Wisconsin at Ohio State
One of the final games of college basketball's regular season will be one of the most intense. The Top 3 this season in the Big-10 (Wisconsin, OSU, and Purdue) have all stayed undefeated at home. The Badgers will try to continue the success they had back on February 12th at home against the Buckeyes. Badger Guard Jordan Taylor had 21 second half points in the Badgers 71-67 "upset". Ohio State remembers that game, and will be looking for payback on Sunday. While improving their NCAA resume is at stake for the Badgers, the Buckeyes will be playing for a #1 seed. Freshman Forward phenom Jared Sullinger and the Buckeyes have struggled a little bit since that game in Madison. A win in Columbus will bring back all the mojo for the Buckeyes, I believe.
Later this week, I will look at the mid-major conference tournaments. College Basketball's postseason will start up this week, and it will be glorious. I love this time of year more than any other. Until next time...I am The Rabbi.
The Biggest Storyline in Baseball for 2011
By Jay Kaplan, OTSL Analyst
As Grapefruit and Cactus League games get underway this weekend, it's time we take a look at what I feel will be the biggest storyline in baseball this season. For me, it will be how a trio of new managers fare stepping into some pretty big shoes left by their predecessors. The men in question are Fredi Gonzalez in Atlanta, Don Mattingly in Los Angeles and Mike Quade in Chicago. The shoes they are stepping into belonged to Bobby Cox, Joe Torre and Lou Piniella. Three of the most successful managers of this generation, World Series champions all.
Gonzalez is the only one with Major League level managerial experience, going 276-279 in 3 plus years with the Florida Marlins. Like Joe Girardi before him, there were issues with owner Jeffre Loria that led to his dismissal. The fact that he managed one of baseball’s lowest payrolls to a near .500 record working for as mercurial an owner as Loria is impressive. Being a Cox disciple (he was Atlanta’s 3rd Base Coach from 2003-2006 and a manager in their farm system before that) who is familiar with “The Braves Way” should make for an easy adjustment by the team. A healthy Chipper Jones will go a long way towards that as well.
Donnie Ballgame has never managed at any level. The Dodgers are no doubt hoping Torre’s long time apprentice (he has been both Hittiing Coach and Bench Coach for Torre) has soaked up everything required to finally sit in the Big Chair. Considering all that is going on with the Dodgers off the field, Mattingly will be under the radar unless the Dodgers get off to a horrific start. If that happens, even the McCourts very contentious and public divorce and fight over ownership of the team won’t shield Mattingly for very long.
That brings us to Mike Quade, who finally gets his shot at running an MLB team full time (he finished out the final 37 games of 2010 after Piniella stepped down). In the dictionary next to “Baseball Lifer” there is picture of Quade. He never played a single game at the Major League level but has managed over 2500 games in the minors over 27 years for five different organizations. Quade breaks a Cubs trend of hiring big name managers in this century – Don Baylor, Dusty Baker and Piniella come to mind – but of the three new guys in question, Quade may be on the shortest leash. Everyone knows the Cubs history: over a century since their last title and over 65 years since they last appeared in the Fall Classic (12 years before Quade was even born). It’s why almost everyone was expecting Cubbie legend Ryne Sandberg to get the nod. Quade’s 24-13 finish last year won him the chance to lead one of baseball’s most prestigious franchises, but he needs Carlos Zambrano and Matt Garza to anchor the rotation and Alfonso Soriano and Aramis Ramirez to drive in runs day in and day out for the Cubs to remain competitive and for him to be more than just a one-shot deal.
A storyline worth watching this season.
Wednesday, February 23, 2011
Sunday, February 20, 2011
I am The Rabbi, Video Editor of On The Sportslines. This is the final installment of my 5-part series looking at the world of college basketball, one major conference at a time.
To be considered here you must have two things going for you: a) a chance to make a legit impact in March or b) a past where everyone knows who you are now, even if you aren’t as good this year. The mid-majors are weaker, so I will be profiling a ton of conference champions of smaller conferences that are performing better than expected.
Gonzaga (19-9, 9-3, RPI 69, Best win Dec 22 Vs. Xavier 64-54, Worst Loss Jan 20 At Santa Clara 85-71)
Standard #1 of thinking is this: Gonzaga always needs to play a hard out-of-conference schedule and pays for it with wear and tear during conference season. Standard #2: You have to play big when you’re in a weak conference, and the 3 straight losses the Bulldogs had in conference play is not acceptable. With Gonzaga and Butler on the bubble, we could see an ultimate ruling on mid-majors scheduling hard opponents. If both make it, maybe pedigree helps. If they don’t, no mid-major is going to impulsively schedule anymore. I think the Zags make it in. To do so they will have to beat conference leader St. Mary’s once, in the regular season or in the conference tourney.
Butler (20-9, 12-5, RPI 44, Best win Dec 23 Vs. Florida St 67-64, Worst Loss Jan 3 At Milwaukee 76-52)
Can Butler’s pedigree get them in the field? It just might. The darlings of last year’s tourney had only 3 losses in conference play last year, but now they have 5. Kind of surprising since returning starters Matt Howard and Shelvin Mack were leaders last year. The Bulldogs still have a chance to make the NCAA tournament though, having won 6 in a row. The overwhelming feeling in most circles though, is Butler will have to make it as an automatic bid. That’s not a given this year for sure.
This used to be Memphis’ conference, but not anymore. The Tigers have needed a win versus a legit tourney team out of conference, and they just haven’t done that. UAB had built a good conference profile, but when Memphis finished a season sweep of them last week, it brought them a rung down on the bubble ladder. Southern Miss has never won a tournament game. There is a possibility the Golden Eagles could make a return to the tourney to get that elusive win but they need to win out to even have a chance at an at-large. UTEP has used a surprise tourney appearance a year ago to make them the class of the league this year. The Miners may be the best of a bad bunch of mediocre teams. That formula could make the C-USA a one bid league.
Missouri Valley Conference Roundup
The Missouri Valley Conference has produced a lot of legit tourney teams, but for the third straight year this conference is lacking a little something. The top 2 teams are the only teams who could be even considered for an at-large spot. Missouri State had a win streak of 9, and then lost 3 of 5, then won 4 in a row, before a back breaking loss a day ago against Valparaiso (one of the teams ahead of Butler in the Horizon). As for the other team, Wichita State has only losses versus UCONN and San Diego State in non-conference play. The 3 conference losses were all down to the wire as well. Why is Wichita State is not a guaranteed at-large? It is because of a bracket buster loss this weekend versus VCU, the 3rd best team in the CAA. Which leads us to….
Four teams in the CAA have stood out among the rest. My alma mater Hofstra has had their best year since the almost tournament run of 2006. They for sure have one of the 10 best players in the nation in Senior Charles Jenkins (23 ppg and not a single game under 13 points all year), but the resume lacks the big road or non-conference victory needed for an at-large bid. Virginia Commonwealth University got a huge win on Friday against Wichita State, which took the sting out of back to back losses at home versus Old Dominion and George Mason. They have a faint at-large possibility, but only if they make the finals of the CAA. Old Dominion is the reigning conference champ and is a good possibility to make the NCAA’s even if they lose in the conference tourney. Their victory over Horizon Conference leader Cleveland State in today’s bracket buster game could cement that at-large spot.
George Mason (23-5, 14-2, RPI 20, Best Win Feb 15 at VCU 71-51, Worst Loss Nov 21 Vs. Wofford 82-79 (OT))
When someone asks you the question of which team has the longest winning streak in America, this is the answer. George Mason is rolling along, winning THIRTEEN in a row. The Patriots right now have a much stronger resume (due to talent and their own competition) then they had when they got an at-large berth in 2006. 11 of those 13 victories are by double digits as well. GMU, with Senior Cam Long and Junior Ryan Peterson, could be a definite second week team in the NCAA tournament. Could they be more than that? Don’t ask a jaded Hofstra fan that question when he’s still bitter about Hofstra’s exclusion and GMU’s inclusion to the NCAA’s in 2006! I just present the facts.
Richmond (20-7, 9-3, RPI 68, Best Win Nov 27 Vs. Purdue 65-54, Worst Loss Nov 18 at Iona 81-77)
Junior Ramone Moore has blossomed into a star this year for the Owls, who look like a comfortable mid-range seed in March. Can they get to the 3rd round or the regionals? Very likely. They played Big East powers Villanova and Georgetown this year, going 1-1. The experience in December could help them get at least one victory in March.
The Musketeers were decent, but nowhere near spectacular in non-conference play, going 9-5. Since then, they have won 12 of their last 13. It’s been that run that has made Xavier the power that we have known them to be in late winter/early spring. Tu Holloway, who’s going to be Atlantic 10 player of the year, averages 20+ points and 5+ rebounds a game. Holloway is one of the best sophomores in the game and has raised his play to a high level this year.
UNLV (20-7, 8-5, RPI 26, Best win Dec 21 At Kansas St 63-59, Worst Loss Dec 15 At UC Santa Barbara 68-62)
The Rebels are the forgotten team in this conference, and with good reason (San Diego State and BYU). However, the wins out of conference are impressive. They’ve won at Kansas State, and have beaten Wisconsin and Virginia Tech, both are NCAA tournament teams. Despite their 0-4 record against the Top 2 in their conference, it’s not as bad as it looks. The Runnin’ Rebels have a surprisingly strong profile (thanks to the very strong MWC), to warrant more playing time in March.
San Diego State may be the better team, but the better player in this conference and maybe the best player on the other side of the Mississippi is Jimmer Fredette. A man who was THIS close to going to the NBA last year but decided to go back to school and has become a legend at BYU. The 2011 version of the Cougars could be the best since Danny Ainge went to school there. This team has some of the best wins of any Western-based school, still has to get over the hump that is their conference rival San Diego State. If they don’t, they’re going to have a tough road to Houston, even with a high seed.
San Diego State (27-1, 12-1, RPI 3, Best Win Dec 1 Vs. St Mary’s 69-55, Worst (only) Loss Jan 26 At BYU 71-58)
They started the year 20-0, and despite the barrage they had to endure from Jimmer Mania in late January, the Aztecs still are fighting for a #1 seed! They can do it too. This team – which leads the nation in wins with 27 – is loaded, with Sophomore F Kawhi Leonard, Senior G D.J. Gay, and Senior F Malcolm Thomas. They have only beaten a single team that has been in the Top 25 all year (Gonzaga), but the Aztecs really can make a run in the NCAA’s. Their coach, Steve Fischer, knows all about great teams getting to the summit of college basketball, like his former team Michigan.
The Gaels were almost an at-large shoe-in a week ago. Now, maybe not so much after 2 straight losses to San Diego and Utah State this week. St. Mary’s does have the pedigree of last year’s Sweet 16 run to hang their hat on, but remember, they got excluded from the tourney 2 years ago. Senior Mickey McConnell has gone through both seasons, and he’s hoping this year goes more like last.
Western Athletic Conference
The Aggies huge road win over St. Mary’s on Saturday probably cemented their tournament spot. The Aggies wouldn’t be a surprise Sweet 16 team; they have been to the dance before. The 2 losses the Aggies had in non-conference play – to Georgetown and BYU – were amazingly close. This team is one that you should try to see during championship week, because they’re going to be seen a lot in March.
Thanks for reading through this 5-part series. I’ll be checking in often as we head into what is my greatest month of the year, March. Happy Madness to all!
Saturday, February 19, 2011
I am The Rabbi, video editor of "On The Sportslines". Welcome back to what's been your obsession. If it hasn't, what's wrong with you? This is the latest installment of the College Basketball Primer. Part 4 focuses on the Big 10 and Pac 10, but first, let's recap on what went on this week, as of the first writing....
- UCONN held serve at home against Georgetown, Louisville held serve at home against UCONN, and most surprisingly, West Virginia held serve at home against Notre Dame to get themselves close to being a tournament lock.
- St. John's beat Pitt on a last second runner by Dwight Hardy, giving the Red Storm their FOURTH victory against Top 10 teams at home, and a victory against each of the Top 3 in their conference. Almost time to put them in the field of 68.
- Nebraska got the Big 12 major victory they needed, giving Texas their first Big 12 loss this season. Back to the right side of the bubble for the Huskers? We'll see.
Now, we move on to the Big 10. This is an interesting conference. It's good, but could be much better due to the two major disappointments that have fallen during conference season.
The First Six
Although they had a victory vs Alabama in the early part of the season, teams are embarrassed when they lose to Iowa. Indiana has seen themselves beat two Top 25 teams at home, but they still may not even be NIT material. Northwestern started 8-0 and has since gone 7-10. Not good. Michigan has an overtime loss at Kansas and two single digit losses against Ohio State. Winning 5 of their last 6 can't make up for that bad non-conference schedule for the Wolverines. Penn State may be .500 in conference, but they are just not on the radar for a spot on the bubble.
Minnesota (17-9, 6-8, Real Time RPI 41, Best win Nov 19 Vs. UNC 72-67, Worst Loss Feb 2 At Indiana 60-57)
You need an owner's manual to understand the Gophers. Their 11-1 start included wins over UNC and West Virginia. They lost 3 consecutive road games versus Ohio St., Michigan St., and Wisconsin, then rattled off 4 straight W's. But, once again they fell in the tank losing 5 of their last 6. With the (and I hate to repeat it) weak bubble in 2011, the Gophers are still on the right side of it...for now. With 3 out of their last 4 at home (And the road game being Northwestern), one slip up and we won't see Tubby Smith in a familiar place... March.
Michigan State (14-11, 6-7, RPI 48, Best win Dec 31 Vs. Minnesota 71-62, Worst Loss Feb 2 at Iowa 72-52)
Tom Petty's Free Fallin is becoming the team anthem for the Michigan State Spartans. Can you believe this is the same team that was ranked #2 in the pre-season? This team had Kalin Lucas, Draymond Green, Darell Summers, and ALL the players who went to back to back final fours. Just like Korey Lucious on the court, this team has truly disappeared (well, Lucious got booted off....). The Spartans have looked like a champion on the court, but played like a chump. Why they are still in the mix for an at-large is any one's guess, but they don't have too long to go before they fall out of the conversation.
Illinois (17-9, 7-6, RPI 38, Best Win Jan 2 Vs. Wisconsin 69-61, Worst Loss Dec 18 Vs. UIC 57-54)
For those who care, UIC is the University of Illinois at Chicago. They're 7-21 right now. But now to the true rose of Illinois, the Illini have been a mild disappointment, well actually more of a level 3 disappointment this year. What could have easily been a dark horse final four candidate is barely holding on to relevance in the national scene. Senior Demetri McCamey is kind of the leader and represents this team as a whole. He has shown signs of promise early, but has tailed off throughout the conference season despite still putting up pretty good numbers. Illinois, losers of 6 of their last 9, has better profiles than the other 2 teams above them. However, that's saying very little.
Wisconsin (19-6, 9-4, RPI 18, Best win Feb 12 Vs. Ohio St 71-67, Worst Loss Jan 29 At Penn St 56-52)
When everybody picks their favorites in the Big 10 every year, the Badgers are not there. We're virtually surprised every single year when we see the Badgers have a sustained run at the top of the conference. When will it stop? Not this year, the Badgers with the combo of G Jordan Taylor and F Jon Leuer can give them enough big shots to get to the 2nd weekend of the tournament. A lot of the teams who will get into this tourney have done it on signature home victories...but I do think Wisconsin has enough talent to win at any site in March.
Purdue (21-5, 10-3, RPI 9, Best win Feb 16 Vs. Wisconsin 70-62, Worst Loss Nov 27 Vs. Richmond 65-54)
Purdue is cursed. The Boilemakers were poised for a huge tourney run when star Robbie Hummel went down right near tourney time last year. Purdue was a Sweet 16 team but it could have been more. Purdue was poised for even more this season, then Hummel's pre-season injury turned a Top 5 team to a Top 15 team. I will give this team some credit though, the 'Makers are a very tough team, as seniors Juwan Johnson and E'Twaun Moore have proved to us with their 20 point games night in and night out. However, unlike the unlimited potential of Purdue with Hummel, there is a ceiling with this version of Purdue. Probably another Sweet 16 appearance.
Ohio State (25-1, 12-1, RPI 4, Best win Nov 16 At Florida 93-75, Worst Loss (and only one) Feb 16 Vs. Wisconsin 70-62)
Simply put, I think Ohio State has played like the best team in the country this year. Can they sustain this with the lack of depth on their bench? I have no idea whatsoever. But I do know this fact, there is no player that has impressed me more this year than Jared Sullinger. In the beginning of the season, Sullinger was breaking down D's with 30+ ppg performances. In, conference season Sullinger has been playing like a great teammate and has shown flashes of brilliance to be my player of the year. Sorry Jimmer Fredette, but Sullinger is someone you FEAR when he steps onto the court. The one downside about Ohio State is this: they get tired, and get tired fast. I hope to God this team keeps up their performance all the way to the Final Four in Houston.
And now the Pac-10. The league is not as weak as it was last year, but it's still a distant 6th when it comes to the Big 6 conferences and could be behind conferences this year like the MWC.
The Pretenders
Arizona State has fallen far from the James Harden days, despite getting a big victory today against Washington State. Oregon State has lost 10 out of their last 12 (not like they had a chance at an at-large anyway). Cal has followed 4 straight victories with 4 straight losses as of this writing and they are fighting for .500 and an NIT berth. Stanford beat DePaul in OT and they are not a team you should struggle to beat. USC has lost by 20 to Rider, almost beat Kansas at Lawrence, and actually DID blowout #1 ranked Texas. Yeah, that's a little schizo. Oregon had a small run as a power in basketball, but that was a while ago.
Washington State (17-10, 7-8, RPI 73, Best win Jan 30 Vs. Washington 87-80, Worst Loss Feb 3 At Oregon 69-43)
I'm only putting them on here cause it would have been depressing to put 3 teams for a major conference. The Cougars, who beat a team with a lot of pre-season hype in Baylor during their non-conference season, have tailed off since they started Pac- 10 play. Like it or not West Coasters, a sub .500 record in a 7th or 8th best conference does nothing to get you an at-large. This team could easily win the Pac-10 tournament, but if they don't, it's NIT city for Wazzou.
Washington (18-8, 10-5, RPI 37, Best win Dec 31 At UCLA 74-63, Worst Loss Feb 3 At Oregon State 68-56)
The Huskies are in a major state of limbo. Before the season began, this former Pac-10 favorite has seen both Arizona and UCLA leap over them, and the traditional Pac-10 powers are the only ones solidly in the field of 68. The small wonder, Junior G Isiah Thomas, has led this team in points per game. The Huskies had a bad stretch of losing 3 straight road games against a Pac-10 murderers row: Washington State and the Oregon's (that sarcastic enough?). Washington could be one of the bigger disappointments if they continue on their roller coaster into mid-March.
UCLA (19-7, 10-3, RPI 36, Best win Dec 18 86-79 Vs. BYU, Worst Loss Dec 5 66-57 Vs. Montana)
UCLA has had a very surprising season this year. They are loaded with youth in sophomore Reeves Nelson; they have experience in Junior Malcolm Lee and they have a Final Four veteran at coach in Ben Howland. Winners of 10 of their last 11, they have improved in-season at all positions and have taken what could have been an ultimate bubble team into a tourney team. UCLA looks to me like an #8 or #9 seed that could put the fear of God in a #1 seed in the 2nd, excuse me, now 3rd round of the NCAA tourney.
Arizona (23-4, 12-2, RPI 17, Best win Jan 27 Vs. UCLA 85-74, Worst Loss Jan 2 at Oregon St 76-75)
Sophomore Derrick Williams, with 19 points and 8 rebounds a game, has led this Wildcat team BACK into the tournament picture. They may not be as strong as other conference leaders, but all Arizona seems to do is win lately. They've won 8 straight, 11 of their last 12 and had a non-conference season where they only led twice. Not a lot of people expected somebody like Derrick Williams to be the leader for Pac-10 Player of the Year, and no one expected Arizona to be this strong in conference. I wouldn't pick against this team in the first weekend of the tourney.
Tomorrow, our college basketball preview concludes when we look at 12 teams to look for in March. These smaller conference teams could be shooting up (or down) to Houston in March.