NFL Fantasy Football – Draft Strategy

by James Feguson

A great deal of luck will be necessary for your team to finish #1. Luck, and I don’t mean Andrew, is only half the story. A draft strategy is much like a game plan for a head coach. You never know precisely what is going to happen, but you can bet your team is going to be prepared. Though much like a head coach, your draft strategy should be representative of your competition. So let’s look into this years draft class so each and every one of you can be more prepared.

Round 1 – Running down a dream
No matter what your draft position the first round only one player should be drafted (Calvin Johnson). The first round is your chance at drafting an elite RB that will have over 300 carries, for most 40 catches, and more often than not, over 8 TDs. AP, Rice, and Lynch, are hands down the best, but after that it becomes a little cloudy. For instance, do you think Doug Martin is worth the 4th pick? Or would you prefer Charles, McCoy or Spiller? Each of the four mentioned are predicted to have a heavy workload and the potential for a standout season. But unlike Rice, AP and Lynch, they have questions attached to each of them. Example: Can Spiller handle over 300 carries? Will McCoy lose goal line carries to Bryce Brown in Chip Kelly’s fast paced offense? Was Martins’ season a fluke? None of the questions should scare fantasy owners from drafting these guys, but if you do, make sure you have some depth at the RB position when the draft is done.

Round 2 – Choose Wisely
Depending upon the league host (ESPN, NFL.com, etc.) the second round will be filled with QBs, a few WR, and more RBs. Your choice here will probably predict how well your team does the entire year. Just about every team will make a good choice in Round One. After that it’s where your personal opinion and research that will drive your choices. Some leagues like PPR leagues or head to head will push fantasy owners to their choice. The point is that no matter who you choose here, you’re choosing the strength of your team. If you decided to take two RBs early, you should feel confident that you won’t be picking up any back off the wire early in the season. If you choose to go QB, you’re probably going to have a Top 10 QB for the entire season. If you decide to take a skill player like WR Calvin Johnson or TE Jimmy Graham, your team will have strength at a position of need all season. Either way, every choice is critical.

Look for Trends
After two rounds you can start to see the other teams’ plan of attack. Use it to your advantage. Assess what trends are beginning to emerge. How many elite QBs are left? Did I get a solid RB? What teams are stacking particular positions? Based on the answers to these questions you should start to make a plan. Let me go through a few of the trends I have noticed through my research this year

• QB’s aplenty – Unlike years past there is a plethora of options at QB this year. It is NOT a position that requires a very high draft pick this year. There are fantasy relevant QBs through the first 75 picks no matter who is hosting your league. If you decide not to draft a QB early, no big deal. Just don’t forget to keep an eye on the trends. If it’s Round Six and suddenly five QBs disappear, don’t get caught picking someone out of nervousness. Have a plan. Find a QB in every 15 picks that you are comfortable with and when the time comes, get your guy. Same can be said for elite WRs.

• Let it Flow – Few teams will have two studs at any position, mainly because of the scarcity of talent. Again, if you don’t want to be picking up the cast always, then make sure you choose a guy you’re comfortable with in a round that makes sense for both your team and their draft position. In other words, if you love T.Y. Hilton like I do, go get him, just don’t do it in Round Four where you can be possibly grabbing more high risk but just as rewarding talents at another position. I never draft a player out of the top 20 players available. It’s a good rule. But if you really hate the guys on the top of the board, don’t take them just because they’re available. Let someone else take guys like DeAngelo Williams, or Hakeem Nicks. Especially when the person you want is just outside the top 15 players available.

• Risk/Reward – Certain players have such upside, but you know ahead of drafting them that the risk of wasting a pick is real. Instead of noting what players they are, I would prefer to leave you with a thought when to draft players like that. DO NOT draft a risky player early, and when I say early I mean in the first three rounds. Let the core of your team be dependable, barring any injuries of course. Risk/Reward players will litter the draft board, and it will be up to your previous and future picks that actually determine just how risky that player will be to draft. In other words If I have acquired a solid core of players already, then why not go big or go home on a player like DeMarco Murray, or Greg Jennings. Both have question marks attached to them. Each of them could be a savior, but only if they put up the numbers that we have grown to expect from years past. That questionable potential can either sink your team or win you a playoff berth. Each one of us drafting will have at least one of these players on our roster. Make sure you understand the ups and downs of their situation before taking the chance.

• Other Options – Late in the draft teams will begin to choose depth over need. Obviously there is no rule for situations like this and it should really be based on feel and the research you have done pre-draft. If you don’t feel confident in the two WRs you chose, then instead of picking a defense go take a WR and give yourself an opportunity to make a good decision based on matchups all year long. Same goes for the rest of the skill positions. The one position I feel you should always have a good backup is the QB. Nothing can sink your chances of forfeiting a season like a bad QB. Each of you should grab a legitimate back up QB because God forbid you are in a situation where he will have to play for you for multiple weeks, that’s preferable to waiver wire players like Mark sanchez, Ryan Tannehill, or Jake Locker who have a better chance of hurting your team than helping it.

• Handcuffs – Typically in fantasy, a handcuff can either save your season, or be a total waste of a roster spot. In today’s version of the NFL, most teams run quite a bit. The fast pace of some offenses or just the brutal punishment most running backs have to endure is reason enough to make sure you scoop up the backup to the stud RB on your team. The question is when? To be honest most handcuffs will probably go undrafted, but there are a few that deserve a roster spot. My rule for this is simple. If you spent a high draft pick on the RB ahead of them, then you want to make sure you grab his handcuff. I for one am high on drafting Bryce Brown (LeSean McCoy’s handcuff), Bernard Pierce (Ray Rice’s handcuff) and Christine Michael (Marshawn Lynch’s handcuff). Beyond these three, none of the other handcuffs would be worth drafting. Not to say that they aren’t worth owning, but my guess is Roy Helu, Fred Jackson and players like them will be available on the wire when the draft is complete.

These are just a few things to keep in mind on draft day, and hopefully the suggestions will be valuable for each and every one of you. Good luck this season and remember to trust your preparation. Information and understanding who you’re looking at cannot be overlooked. This concludes our pre-draft fantasy football articles. We will continue to keep you updated after Week One games end. Thanks for reading and we’ll see ya all season long!

James Ferguson is an OTSL Alum. He now writes for GMenHQ.com. Follow him on Twitter @Jferguson631. You can find this piece on GMenHQ.com here: http://gmenhq.com/2013/08/25/fantasy-football-draft-strategy/.

Welcome To The Madness, Part 2

by The Rabbi, OTSL Video Editor

Yesterday, I gave you a primer on the conference tournaments that started on Wednesday.  Since then, white smoke has come out of Vatican City signaling Part 2 needs to be up...(wait, that signals something else, okay).

Onward to the final three conference tournaments (of importance) that start Thursday.

Atlantic 10 Tournament (Thursday-Sunday, BROOKLYN, New York)

Who's In:  

VCU (good transition to the A-10 this year, and despite a little bump in the road in the middle of the year, could get a Top 4 seed with a tourney win); Saint Louis (one of the hottest teams in the tourney, will definitely get a Top 4 seed with a tourney win here; amazing job getting this team together after Rick Majerus passed away in November); Butler (actually has to play in the opening round Thursday, but has enough of a great non-conference resume that they will be as high as a #5 as low as a #8 seed).

On the Bubble:  

Temple. They've been a very good team late in the season.  Had a major win the past weekend against VCU to get themselves on the cusp of a berth.  The Owls, who have won seven in a row needed that VCU win because the only win of any substance they had was against St. Louis...in January.   Temple should just need one victory in the A-10 tournament to put themselves in the field of 68.  But they may need two wins to avoid the First Four.

LaSalle.  Like Temple, they got a bye to the Quarterfinals on Friday; however their 4th place finish in the A-10 may not truly be enough.  They have 21 wins, but only five against teams ranked in the RPI Top 100.  Ouch.  The Atlantic 10 is very top heavy, but LaSalle is somewhere surprisingly in the middle.  They need to win at least one more game (just like the back to back wins they had against Butler and VCU back in late January) to ensure they get to go dancing.

Games to watch:  

Temple vs. George Washington/UMass (Friday).  There were so many mid 90's memories that dealt with these three teams, the big time A-10 powers.  It seemed like every single time there was an A-10 final, one of these three teams was involved.  For Temple, it's a little more important than that this time out, as the Owls NEED a victory to get themselves into the Big Dance without having to sweat it out on Selection Sunday.  The Owls only won by one earlier last month at UMass.  Luckily for Temple, UMass has faded a little bit.

LaSalle vs. Butler/Dayton (Friday). We've mentioned LaSalle's issues: they have a boring resume, but a good enough league record in a top flight conference can get you in the tourney.  However, as we mentioned yesterday, how you finish is a very important thing and thus a loss against what will most likely be Butler could cost LaSalle a trip to the NCAA's.  

Who wins?  

Saint Louis.  12 out of 13 wins to close out their season, with that one loss in overtime.  They've been playing in a different level than the rest of the A-10, and it will show here.

ACC Tournament (Thursday-Sunday, Greensboro, NC)

Who's In:  

Duke (not the #1 seed in this tournament; undefeated with Ryan Kelly in the lineup, will be #1 seed overall if they win here); Miami (only team that can beat Duke in conference, but struggled down the stretch, still have an outside chance at a #1 seed); North Carolina (very unspectacular this year, but still can avoid being an #8/#9 seed if they go deep here); NC State (even more unspectacular, but has enough good victories to quietly avoid the bubble).

On the Bubble:

Virginia.  Talk about your ULTIMATE bubble team this week.  They've lost SEVEN times (yes SEVEN) to teams ranked outside of the RPI Top 100.  However, they beat Duke, Wisconsin, as well as fellow bubble team Tennessee.  They finished in a good enough spot in their conference to make sure they got a bye into the Quarterfinals, but they also lost four out of their last seven at the wrong time.  Just one more win in that stretch may have officially put them in.  

Maryland.  As we've said before, this is a LONNNNNG shot.  We're only keeping them here to make what is a very quiet bubble in 2013 a teeny bit more interesting.  Granted, the ACC hasn't been the murder's row conference it has been in years past (and should be again next year when Syracuse, Pitt, and Notre Dame join the fold), but the Terrapins going 8-10 in conference in a down year will not bode well for them with the Committee.  Trust me.

Matchups to Watch:  

Virginia vs. NC State (maybe) (Friday).  We'll get this matchup as long as the Wolfpack get past the Virginia Tech Hokies.  I have to believe that if the Cavaliers win, they have a decent case for their NCAA tournament berth and it really should be at the Wolfpack's expense.  A win by the Cavs will be their second this year over the Pack, and this one would be at a neutral site.  If Virginia can get over what seems to be consistently erratic play starting Friday, I think they have a really good shot to get to the ACC Semis.

ACC Final (Sunday).  If form holds, this would be Duke vs.Miami, and oh would that be glorious!  I think we should throw out their first matchup in Coral Gables in mid-January where Duke didn't have Ryan Kelly and look at the classic these two teams had at the beginning of March when Duke won 79-76 at Durham.  Miami has cooled off a tiny bit since their hot start (they were the last undefeated team in conference), but they still held on to win the ACC Regular Season Title, and they can still play with anyone in the country.

Who wins?  

Duke.  Sorry.  As much as I hate them, right now, with a full lineup, they are the best team in the country.  They showed that early in the season and they are showing it again late in the season.

Big 10 Tournament (Thursday-Sunday, Chicago)

Who's In:  

Indiana (winning the Big 10 Regular Season plus the Conference Tourney should get them a guaranteed #1 seed; they may get it regardless); Michigan (struggled a little bit of late, but should still get a #3 or #4 seed); Michigan State (still an outside shot at a #2 seed if they win the tourney here); Ohio State (won against Michigan State and at Indiana to end the season; will definitely get a #2 seed if they win here); Wisconsin (fighting between the #4, #5, #6 seed lines for the last few weeks).

On The Bubble:

Minnesota.  Started the season amazingly hot, then tailed off, then got their biggest win of the year against Indiana (ranked #1 at the time).  Of course, then they tailed off again in their last two games, losing to Purdue and Nebraska back-to-back, playing more like the 9th best team in the Big 10 than the team that ripped off 11 consecutive victories in the first half of the year.  

Illinois.  They will likely make The Dance, but their inconsistency is about as bad as that of the Golden Gophers.  Like Minnesota, they have a big victory at home against a then ranked #1 Indiana team.  That started a run where they won of five out of six, putting this team on the cusp of a NCAA berth and then they lost two out of their last three, including to the team below them in this rundown.  I have to believe they need at least one victory in the Big 10 tourney to lock up their NCAA spot.

Iowa.  They've gotten into the discussion late, due to finishing ahead of Minnesota and Illinois in the Big 10 closing the season with a 6-2 stretch.  However, when you go 1-5 against the Top 5 teams in the conference AND you have a non-conference schedule that would only make a Division II Team proud, there is a huge problem with your NCAA Tournament resume.  If Iowa gets three wins in the conference tourney, we can put them in the discussion.  Anything less and they watching from the couch when The Dance starts next week.

Games to Watch:  

Minnesota vs. Illinois (Thursday).  Yup, the two teams I just mentioned on the bubble somehow find themselves playing one another in Round One of the Big 10 tourney.  The loser of this game may sweat a little bit on Selection Sunday.  They would also put themselves in the very vocal discussion of the teams who just might have to start their NCAA play on Tuesday/Wendesday.  The winner has a chance at one more HUGE win Friday vs. Indiana.

First Semifinal (Saturday).  This could very well be Indiana vs. Michigan Part Three.  The Hoosiers won both matchups this year, by a total of NINE points.  If the amazing matchup they had in Ann Arbor this past Sunday is any indication, this could be a terrific game if both teams show their entire arsenals.  Now this match-up could also wind up being Indiana vs.Wisconsin, which could be interesting, considering the Badgers won the first meeting this year, in Bloomington.  A revenge game for the Hoosiers could add some spice to this potential Semi.

Who wins?  

Surprisingly enough, I won't go chalk here because I think this goes to the Michigan State Spartans.  I feel like they have enough experience to go through a grueling tournament like this.  Plus, they have that #2 seed to play for, so there's a good amount of motivation there.

That's it.  It's been fun these last few days (although my fingers would not say the same after all this typing).  Go forth and enjoy The Madness my friends.  I'll be on the couch for the next four days watching all the ball I need to watch.

March Madness, Part One (You know before it officially starts)

by The Rabbi, OTSL Video Editor 

This is my favorite time of the year, as we are as close as you can be to The Madness FINALLY beginning.  This week marks the peak swing for Conference Tourneys.  Even though a lot of people might say these tourneys invalidate a whole season's worth of work, I still enjoy what we are about to see.  The CRAZIEST week of the year.  

Now even though the little guys have finished up or are about to finish up, there are still eight big conference tournaments getting underway within the next 24 hours.  In those tourneys, you'll see a majority of the teams who will make an impact come next week when the major part of The Madness gets underway.  I'll let you know what these major teams are playing for this week, plus a lot more about these tournaments.  Let's get started:

MOUNTAIN WEST CONFERENCE (Tuesday-Saturday, Las Vegas)

Who's In:  New Mexico (never been a doubt, probably a Top 4 Seed), Colorado St. (would like to avoid the 8-9 game range and move up to a #6 or & #7 Seed), UNLV (been about as close to a Top 25 team all year as you can get, would like to move up to a #5 Seed), and San Diego St. (enough quality wins and opponents non-conference to overlook a mediocre 9-7 conference record).

On the Bubble:  Boise State. They're as close to in (same record as San Diego State), but have a much weaker non-conference slate, which means they have to do a tiny bit more to make it to the big dance.  

Matchups to watch:  Boise State vs. San Diego State (Thursday).  Two very close games between these two teams in the regular season (splitting home and home) means Boise State will need the tiebreaker.  If Boise can win two straight against the Aztecs (they won by four in the regular season finale on Saturday), there's going to be very little doubt that they are a tournament team unless...

Boise State/San Diego State vs. (most likely) New Mexico (Friday).  Either team gets blown out (and we're presumably moving New Mexico in here because we think they should get through their opening round), it leaves a bad lasting impression on the committee.  Some people on the tourney board may not have seen either team fully at many times this year (hello West Coast bias!), but they do watch conference tourneys.  Getting blown out in the game that leaves the final impression on the committee is not good for your cause.  It could cost the Broncos a Madness slot an may knock the Aztecs dangerously close to that "Last Four In" range.

Who wins?:  In a year with a very strong upper crust of those five teams (although New Mexico did win the conference by two games), I remind myself of the one thing I hate about this tourney:  IT'S A HOME TOURNEY FOR UNLV!  Top seeded Lobos lost earlier in the year in the Thomas and Mack Center, I unfortunately see another loss coming their way here.  UNLV will win this tourney.

BIG EAST CONFERENCE (Tuesday-Saturday, New York City)

Here it is.  College basketball purists have been fearing this, and after this year it will come to fruition.  This is the last tournament of the current incarnation of the Big East at The Garden.  When the Catholic schools play here in the near future, it won't be the same.  The moments will still be there though...sort of.

Who's in:  Louisville (has a 7-game winning streak, can close out a #1 seed with a tournament victory), Georgetown (can close out a #1 seed with a tournament victory), Marquette (sneaky good team looking to keep their Top 4 seed line after winning a share of the Big East regular season title), Pittsburgh (looking to break in to that Top 4 seed line after a shaky 2012), Syracuse (FREE-FALLING right now, losing 4 out of 5) and Notre Dame (lesser talent than years past, but still going to get a Top 6 seed here)

On the Bubble:  Cincinnati.  Widely regarded as a "lock" in some circles, they play Providence in the first round.  They lose there, whose to say Providence shouldn't get in after having the same conference record as Cincy and a better end to the season?  That said, as long as Cincy wins, the rest of their week should be for seeding.

Villanova.  Beating a very hot Georgetown pretty much locked up their bid, but they need to be a bit careful against a very scrappy St. John's team on Wendesday.  A loss there may make the committee remember this wasn't a very good 'Nova team before conference play.  A win against the Johnnies, and the next step for Villanova is making sure they avoid Dayton games on Tuesday and Wendesday.

Matchups to watch:  Semi-final #1 (Friday).  The possibilities are endless.  Georgetown should dispatch Cincy or Providence in their semifinal, and the likelyhood is they'll either play Syracuse or Pitt.  If it's G'Town/Syracuse, it will be their last game (we promise) as Big East foes.  If it's Pitt, they've played some tough battles with Georgetown and this would be the last one for a while, as I don't think they're going to schedule each other non-conference.

Conference Final (Saturday).  If it's the Top 2 seeds, then Georgetown and Louisville are playing for a Top seed.  The Big East has been a dog fight this year, and almost all the teams who will make the tournament out of this group have experienced their ups and downs (the one's who won't make The Dance only experienced downs).  Having a #1 seed come out of the Big East would be a huge accomplishment for a conference going through a lot of turnover and turmoil this year.

Who wins?:  As much as I've loved the job that Peyton Siva and Russ Smith have been doing for the Cardinals, there just seems to be something that's clicking with the Hoyas (last week's loss to Villanova aside.)  I'll pick one of the Big East's most historic teams to carry on the legacy of the new Big East and go with Georgetown.

SOUTHEASTERN CONFERENCE (Wednesday-Sunday, Nashville)

This is the least top heavy conference (BY FAR), but the most intrigue is squarely on the bubble here, as there are 5-6 teams at least in the discussion there.  This is a big time "bid-stealer" league if there ever was one.

Who's in:  Florida (only team with a non-conference and conference record that's sparkling, is probably looking at a #3 seed regardless of performance this week in Nashville), Missouri (the bubble sucks, which is why they're in. Too much of a good non-conference start overlooks a disappointing 11-7 conference finish)

On the Bubble:  Tennessee.  They have a good resume, but still a few holes left.  The SEC is considered a weaker conference than any of its other Big 6 BCS neighbors, but Tennesee is the best of it's "rest".  They've won eight out of their last nine and have beaten every good team in the SEC:  Florida, Missouri, and Kentucky.  They just had a weak non-conference schedule and that puts them here.

Kentucky.  Don't be fooled, this is not the defending national champions here (those guys are all gone).  They've played like a good team through most of the year, but when star freshman Nerlens Noel went down, the Cats went 4-3.  They weren't playing like world beaters before the injury and surely not after it.  They weren't losing to Georgia and Arkansas afterwards.  Now, as the #2 seed, they won't play till Friday, but even a win in that first game won't give them a guaranteed spot.  More on that in a second.

Ole Miss.  With such HIGH expectations when the season started, all of a sudden Ole Miss became just another high mediocre major during the season with a less than stellar profile.  They didn't beat Kentucky or Florida, and their only major win was at home against Missouri.  The Rebels have a non-conference strength of schedule in the 100's.  Not good, but a finals appearance in this tournament can possibly get this team over the hump.

Alabama.  Still here based on the fact that they got the "double-bye" to the tournament.  But the Tide have lost to Dayton, Tulane, and Auburn; not exactly resume builders.  Then again, if enough teams lose, the Tide can sneak in with an SEC Final appearance.  But nothing more.  Anyone else wins this tournament, they will end up being a bid stealer.

Games to watch:  A possible Tennessee vs. Alabama Quarterfinal (Friday). It's one of those games where the loser will definitely be out, but the winner won't necessarily be in.  Tennessee has a lot more talent in Cuonzo Martin's second year, and I kind of feel like they are in with two wins in the tournament.  This would be their second.

Second Semifinal (Saturday). If form holds (and it usually doesn't) it would be Missouri or Ole Miss vs. Kentucky.  Kentucky is going to be the story of this tournament in their fight to defend their title.  If they get to this semifinal, all they'll have to do is win to get back in.  If Kentucky's status is "In", they can start fighting to get out of that First Four.

Who wins?:  Missouri has always been the most talented team of this bunch, but has never really shown it during the season.  This tournament is going to be a crapshoot here, so I'll go with the semi-dark horse #6 seed here, and go with Mizzou to get the automatic bid and improve their seeding.

PACIFIC-12 CONFERENCE (Wednesday-Saturday, Las Vegas)

The Pac-12 finally switched from the only place they've had their tourney (Los Angeles) to a place where a good amount of money can be made on their tourney (Las Vegas).  After last year's DISASTER of a tourney where the Pac-12 only got two schools in, this year's edition is definitely much better.

Who's in:  UCLA (won five out of their last six, have a great non-conference schedule, won regular season title), Arizona (thudded to a 4-4 finish, but started 20-2 which is good enough for me).

On the Bubble:  Colorado.  In most circles as a #10 seed on projections, the Buffaloes would have probably been a lock if they didn't lose to Oregon State this past Saturday.  Now, they have one more shot against Oregon State in the opening round of the tourney.  They win that, it'll be hard to leave them out of The Dance.

California.  Also in most circles as a likely Madness team, though they ruined an amount of momentum by losing at home to Stanford this past weekend.  However, in an improved Pac-12 this year, the Golden Bears were a moment away from clinching a share of the regular season conference title.  That should be enough to get them in but they still want to get out of that "Last Four In" range.  

Oregon.  They've been a Top 25 team until the past month when the Ducks quacked back to the pack (see what I did there?).  They have only one really good road victory since February and they did lose three out of their last five towards the end of the year.  They should be in, but they can't afford a Quarterfinal loss to Washington or Washington State, which could hurt their chances even more.  Again, they should be in, but not 100% as of yet.

Arizona State.  RPI of 90, but again, Conference Tournament week is HUGE in terms of the NCAA Committee's perception of you.  The Sun Devils need a very solid run here; a Finals appearance could cement their chances of making The Dance.  Most likely though, they would be a bid-stealer if they win.

Matchups to Watch:  Arizona vs.Colorado Quarterfinal (Thursday).  This would be a rematch (if Colorado wins Wednesday) of last year's final if it were to go down.  The two also had a memorable game earlier this year where Colorado looked like they made a game winning shot, but after a long deliberation it got waved off (which led to their coach wanting basketball to abolish all replay).  Colorado easily won the rematch in February and if the Buffaloes could win in this spot they can get much higher NCAA seeding.

Pac-12 Second Semifinal (Friday).  However, if Arizona wins that Quarterfinal, they may set up another matchup with UCLA.  Arizona, which went into the league season as the favorites, then lost both of their games to the Bruins.  This would be big for Arizona to catapult them into Top 4 seeding range if they can beat the Pac-12 regular season champs.

Winner?:  UCLA.  They are clicking at the right time right now.  Only Cal is a tiny bit hotter than the Bruins in this conference, but those high expectations that were set for UCLA's young team at the beginning of the season are starting to be met.  I'm giving the Bruins the title here.

BIG-12 CONFERENCE (Wednesday-Sunday, Kansas City, MO)

Who's In:  Kansas (pretty much a #2 seed if they win the tourney; too much needs to happen for them to get a #1), Kansas State (amazing season in Bruce Weber's first year, probably a #4 seed), Oklahoma State (played like the second best team in the conference; right now they project as a #3 seed, but might go as high as a #2 seed with a conference title).

On the Bubble:  Oklahoma.  VERY close to being in, but lost last Saturday to TCU, one of the worst teams in the country.  Even still, they look semi-safe right now.  They cannot afford one more loss though, which we'll get into a second, or the very bland resume of the Sooners (no bad losses, and 2-4 against those three "In" teams) will get a second look, and that could also put Oklahoma in the "Last Four In" group.

Iowa State.  They've had some of the most heartbreaking losses in this field.  They are 2-4 against those three "In" teams I keep mentioning, but unlike Oklahoma, all six of those games were by single digits and both losses to Kansas were in overtime (although there are a lot of fans in Ames that would say they had the second game against Kansas stolen from them).  However, they also have two BAD losses during the year to Texas and Texas Tech and BYU is their only great non-conference victory.  They still have work to do.

Baylor.  Yeah, this was the team ranked preseason Top 10 and made the Elite Eight last year.  But the Bears come into the conference tourney winning only three out of their last 11.  The only reason they're even on this list is because of the shellacking they gave Kansas over the weekend in Waco.  Baylor needs at last a finals appearance in the conference tourney to make the NCAA's.  Anything else and they'll be watching March Madness at home.

Matchups to Watch:  Oklahoma vs.Iowa State Quarterfinal (Thursday).  As I've mentioned before, both have tournament profiles that look the same, but Iowa State has played just a little more excitable.  They split during the regular season, each winning on the others court by double digits.  The winner here probably avoids the First Four in Dayton and can try to sneak out of that 8-9 game range, which would make their second round matchup much harder.

Baylor vs. Oklahoma State Quarterfinal (Thursday).  I'm excited for this one.  Oklahoma State won by two in OT when these two last played on the 6th of February.  Baylor NEEDS this game for any NCAA Tournament consideration, while Oklahoma State (who is kind of in the same position Baylor should be in) would love to knock them off.

Winner:  Kansas.  Can never go against the old guard especially when they are the most talented team in the conference.  Even though Kansas has had some hiccups in this year (see TCU), the Jayhawks still have enough talent to get over the speed bumps they had this season.  I think the Jayhawks prevail.

Part 2, previewing the remaining three conferences will come tomorrow.  Enjoy the madness, everyone.

Inspiration......found

by The Rabbi (Video Editor of "On The Sportslines")

So, I've been keeping up with these blogs, doing them bi-weekly and I was stumped on what to do this week.

It's been too depressing to talk about hockey season (thanks Rangers), it's a teeny bit too unpredictable to talk about College Basketball (thanks every single #1 team losing every single week).

Then, I watched the Knicks this past Wendesday.  As a Knick fan, this season has been a roller coaster of a ride (the last chat I had with OTSL's Jay Kaplan showed how frustrated we both were), but for JUST one night, I took all of that aside and took in what can be considered one of the best NBA games this season to watch, which was saying something in a week where there were a ton of them (anyone see the Heat-Kings Double OT thriller the night before?).

Warriors-Knicks had a lot of story lines going for it outside of former St. John's and Knicks hero Mark Jackson returning to his 2nd home at the World's Most Famous Arena.  For one, the Warriors came into the game shorthanded, without the services of ANOTHER former Knick hero, David Lee, due to his part in a wild brawl (by TODAY'S NBA standards), Tuesday night against the Pacers.  So, while yes, the Warriors may have been without their second best player, but this game almost made you forget all of that by the time it was over.

First of all, how about Stephen Curry?  Let me tell you about the season this man has had (now I SOUND like Hubie Brown).  He has (as mentioned two weeks ago) benefited greatly from no longer sharing the backcourt with Monta Ellis (more on him a bit later in this piece).  Steph Curry just wanted to be the man.  Steph Curry wanted to be THE Go-To player on an up and coming team.  Last night might have been his coming out party.  Curry became only the 14th person in MSG history to come up with a 50+ point game, dropping 54 on the Knickerbockers.  NO ONE had that total in the NBA this year, not Lebron, not Durant, not the guy on the other side who leads the NBA in first quarter scoring (some guy the Garden Faithful call 'Melo).  NO ONE.  Four years to the month when Knicks fans witnessed a three day span where Kobe went for 61 and THEN LeBron went for 52, they got to see Steph Curry put on a show with the  dimension of it coming against a much better Knicks team, even if their defense is highly questionable right now.

Stephen Curry, on a team that didn't have too many other options went 18-28 from the field including 11-13 from 3 point range.  11 FOR 13!!!  That's insane!  This was a game when even a fan of 1980's basketball wouldn't just say they were watching Dell Curry's son, they could say with some measure of confidence that they were watching the next great scorer in the NBA.  Stephen was the definition of a One Man Gang Wednesday night and that can be evidenced by the breakdown of Golden State's points: 54 points for Steph, 51 from anyone else not named Steph.  Whether Curry feels slighted for not being an All Star in 2013, or feels slighted that he was one pick away from being a Knick in 2009 (how's Jordan Hill working out? oh, right), something motivated Steph Curry to have the performance of his life.

Oh, and to get away from my ranting, copy and paste this link to see the latest on what the aforementioned Monta Ellis did for his new team, the Milwaukee Bucks:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PmGqVxYbITU

It does make me think both Ellis and Curry are doing fine.

Moving on to Steph Curry's victims, the Knicks.  When I talked about JR Smith two weeks ago as the Wild Card on this team, my pal Jay Kaplan went so far to call him John Starks-ian (though for me JR Smith has a LONG way to go to be John Starks, a LONG way), but against Golden State we saw the good JR Smith.  He went 10-19 from the field (the only one who actually shot 50% from the field for the Knicks, which is almost a miracle in itself), including six Three Pointers of his own to go against Steph's 11.  It may be a performance that we'll see from him more than once between now and playoff time, but it was surely the kind of game that can get him on a something of a hot streak again.  As I mentioned, when JR Smith is actually on, the team feeds off his energy.  Smith's go-ahead shot with under two minutes left in the fourth quarter is the type of shot the Knicks will need him to make down the stretch.

As for Carmelo Anthony, did he shoot too much en route to his 35 points?  Is the former pope Catholic?  Nevertheless, the Knicks will always need Carmelo to be that big scorer regardless and against Golden State, he was just that.  Even when Anthony is getting other people involved, he's usually getting himself involved first and foremost.  With the Amare Stoudemire still on a minute count of 30, the Knicks have needed Carmelo to be THE GUY who puts the ball into the basket, first and foremost.  When point guards like Raymond Felton are on the floor, Melo is usually a pretty good option to go to.  I've been in and out on if he deserves Top 5 MVP voting this year, but right now I'm in.  I feel like not only has Melo been the key scoring option on this team (well, duh), but he's improved himself this year and become more than just the top points-per-game guy, but he's also become a leader on the team too.

Well, maybe co-leader.  The most impressive thing outside of the 54 points that Curry put up against New York was Tyson Chandler, who took advantage of Warriors big man Lee being suspended and went all H.A.M. (I am allowed to say that, right judges?) on the boards last night and put up 13 rebounds.

Oh I'm sorry, what I meant to say was, 13 rebounds in the first quarter.  Sorry about that.

You can never find a problem with what has been the biggest non-Melo acquisition for this team.  Sure, Tyson's offense (yes, he has provided some!) has been somewhat here and there (16 points against the Warriors qualifies as a "here"), but something that Knicks fans see EVERY game is Chandler's defensive abilities.  It was a lot more of a question a year ago when he was surprisingly crowned NBA Defensive player of the Year; despite playing half of the year on a Mike (no D) 'Antoni team, shockingly.  This year though, with the presumptive Defensive Player of the Year flailing in LA (Dwight Howard), Tyson put his name in the running with his performance against Golden State.  Sure, he was supposed to dominate as the only true "big" on the floor, but 28 rebounds?  This is a feat that has never been achieved in the long career of Tyson Chandler and is quite an accomplishment.  Cheers to you, Mr. Chandler for singlehandedly getting double digits on the offensive AND defensive boards.  

This short blog post reminded me why I like being a Knick fan this year.  Yes, there is the pessimism of the team being too old and yes, I always find myself asking "where are they going to screw up?" (and will continue to do so from now until the day the Knicks get eliminated from the playoffs even the most realistic Knick fan thinks that it will happen), it's games like this 109-105 win over the Warriors DESPITE the 54 from Stephen Curry that make me realize - and I hate to sound presidential here - that I AM better off with the New York Knicks than I was 4 years ago.  It's not too embarrassing to be a Knick (or in this case a Warrior) fan anymore.

The Price of Being a Jets Fan

By James Ferguson

When the NY Jets moved up in the 2007 draft to get Pittsburgh's Darrelle Revis, few could have known just how good a player he would turn out to be for them. In five injury free seasons he made the Pro Bowl four times, made All-Pro three times and won the 2009 AFC Defensive Player of the Year award. On September 5th, 2010 he was given a new contract with the Jets for four years and $32 million dollars. A nice pay day for what most at the time would have said was the premier corner in the National Football League. That season the Jets finished 11-5 and made it all the way the AFC Championship game where they lost to the Steelers 24-19. Since then, Revis and the Jets haven't fared as well. In 2011 the team finished 8-8 after Rex Ryan’s third straight Super Bowl guarantee and didn’t even making the playoffs. Revis then tears his ACL in Week 3 of this past season against the Dolphins and thus sank the Titanic known as the New York Jets. Why did I choose the Titanic reference?  Because the Jets look more like a shipwreck than a professional football team!

The writing is on the wall here Jets Fans.  Mike Tannenbaum is gone, so thankfully no one else is going to give $30 million more to Mark "I-Look-Like-I've-Lost-Interest" Sanchez, but the Jets unfortunately still have to pay for all the salary mistakes Tannenbaum and Woody Johnson have put their team under. John Idzik is reknowned for his ability to do just that, but not in one year’s time people! The Jets over the course of the last five years have gone from a team with a world of potential to a team lacking even an identity. You can't blame that on one man, but there is one man who can help us, and that man ladies and gentlemen, is Darrelle Revis.

Revis, even with a torn ACL could cover most receivers better than half the corners in the NFL. He is in the same sentence as Deion Sanders and Charles Woodson, names that immortalize that position. He seems to agree with me.  As the news reported in early February, Revis wants to be paid a whopping $16 million per year on his next contract, which would make him the highest paid defensive player in the NFL if it were to happen. Obviously no one in the organization wants to see Revis leave, but if his needs are to be paid at that price, is that too high a price to pay? The answer to that is clearly YES. Even for most teams not under salary cap restrictions, a $16 million a year player is a tough pill to swallow financially. For the Jets? They would literally choke on it. Ever get a pill stuck in your throat? Nasty right? If New York signs Revis, that taste plus a little dirt is what Jets fans will taste until his contract expires.

So let's re-write the question. Not "Is the price too high for Darrelle?" but to "At what price can we sell Darrelle?" For those Jets fans who want to punch me through the computer for such blasphemy, think about this: it's going to be a long season with, or without Revis, so go get some ice for that hand, get some tums for that heartburn, and maybe some aspirin for that hangover.  For those of you still with me, you’re probably asking “Has it really come to this?”  The answer, in a word, is “Yes.”  Despite the most recent news that the Jets have released Bart Scott, Calvin Pace, Jason Smith, Eric Smith, and Josh Baker, the Jets are just barely under the cap, and leaves them basically stranded with laughably very little money to play with during the free agency period. 

So again I ask you, if you were to sell your best player and thus give your team a chance to start - wait for it Jets fans - ”rebuilding” for the next regime, doesn’t that seem like an intelligent thing to do?  Doesn’t it?  Revis could garner a hefty price for those teams thinking he’s the missing piece.  It would also benefit the Jets in that they wouldn’t be burying themselves in a monster contract they have no right to even offer the man. 

So I ask all you football fans to tweet me your answers @JFerguson631.  In the end, at what price would you accept a trade for Revis, and at what price are you willing to pay for being a Jets fan?

James Ferguson is an OTSL Alum. He now writes for GMenHQ.com. You can find this piece: http://gmenhq.com/2013/02/20/darrelle-revis-whatsthe-price-for-being-a-jets-fan/

OTSL Facebook Chat: NBA 1st Half Recap/2nd Half Preview

What’s up!  I am The Rabbi, video editor for “On The Sportslines”, and today we're doing a little something different as we turn our attention towards the NBA.  I'm going to have a chat with OTSL's resident “Stat King” Jay Kaplan as we discuss the In’s and Out’s of the NBA as the second half is about to get underway.

The Rabbi:              I know you haven't seen too much good ball from your Sixers this year, but you ready to talk REAL hoops?

Jay Kaplan:            Yeah, lets tip this thing off.

The Rabbi:             Alright, we're going to start with the two locals, beginning with the still kings of New York, the Knicks.  They are 32-17, and have been occupying the #2 seed in the East practically all season.  So, Jay, what's your grade for the Knicks first half?

Jay Kaplan:            In all honesty, I can't really go above a B+ for the Knicks. They are the best team in the Atlantic Division, but that's as much an indictment of the division as it is a testament to the play of the Knicks. The loss to the Clippers was an example of what happens when the Knicks revert to the Melo show. Yes, he HAD to put up monster points because no one else was scoring, but how much of that was lack of ball movement as well as bad shooting? The Knicks had more turnovers than assists and on a team with Kidd, Felton and Prigioni, that shouldn't happen. JR Smith was MIA, Novak got no shots and despite a good start, they didn't go to Amare enough in the post. And don't get me started on the decline on the defensive end! Here are some numbers on that…In their 8-1 start to the season, New York ranked fourth in Defensive Efficiency (that’s points allowed per 100 possessions) and sixth in opponents' Field Goal Percentage.  In the 39 games that followed (before last Sunday's game), the Knicks had fallen off remarkably.  In that span, New York ranked 19th in the NBA in Defensive Efficiency and 23rd in Opponent’s Field Goal Percentage.  Thanks to the ESPN NY Knicks blog for those numbers.  And you and I both agree that it seems like the Knicks just cannot beat a good team.

The Rabbi:            Yeah, they have no quality wins seemingly since the turn of the calendar year.

I'm actually going go with a B on this one.  There was SO much hope when the season started, but they were on a 3 point tear. They couldn't keep up that hot streak, and everyone knew that.  The way the Knicks played Mike Woodson's version of "small ball" worked for a long while this season, because it was creative and something we hadn't seen from the Knicks since that brief run last year with some guy named Lin.  This team is going to need to come up with a BIG man, who can play on that 2nd team with Amare.  Because once we get to later in the season, the Knicks have no SHOT at being the Miami Heat in a Best of Seven.  Can they beat anyone else in a Best of Seven?  Sure, but I'm not 100% sure if anyone is worthy right now.

Jay Kaplan:            I think the version of - as you put it - "Woodson Ball" is a very effective offense, but everyone has to play their part.  I think some of the recent issues have to do with re-integrating Amare, Shumpert and even Felton back into the team when they came off the DL.  As far as having another Big to play with Amare on the 2nd unit, I disagree. It's not about that, it's about Amare, Melo and Chandler being able to all be on the floor at closing time and not get in each other’s way.  Figuring floor spacing in that situation will be key.  Can the Knicks beat any/everyone else on the way to facing the Heat in the Eastern Conference Final?  MAYBE, but not if they play like they did against the Clippers.  Look, we know that Melo has to be Option #1 on offense, but him being the NBA's leading scorer is not necessarily the best thing for the Knicks.  It means he is taking too many shots because either he's hogging the ball or nobody else is putting the rock in the net and he feels like he HAS to take all the shots and score all the points.  He needs to trust in his teammates a bit more, but they have to earn that trust by knocking down shots.  Catch 22.

The Rabbi:            I think the difference between Year 1 and 2 Melo to Year 3 Melo is simple.  He knows when his team is hot and knows when they’re not.  Carmelo CAN be the leading scorer in the league, there is no consistent Robin right now to Melo's batman.  Melo hasn't been in Iso 20-25 times per game like he was a year or two ago.  However, if the Knicks can find a consistent #2 scorer, whether it be big or small, they can beat anyone in the East, except Miami.

Jay Kaplan:            Right, but here's the thing, the rest of the NBA watched the tape of the 4th Quarter where the Clippers defense almost completely took Melo out of the offense.  Using a combination of ball denial defense by Grant Hill along with trapping on pick-and-rolls, the Clippers held Anthony to just two shots and four points in the fourth.  The rest of the Knicks combined for 14 points in the fourth as Los Angeles outscored New York 31-18, in the final 12 minutes of their 102-88 win.  Woodson took Amare out with 7:30 left in the 4th and never brought him back in.  Why?  That move made no sense to me.  Amare has REALLY developed a NICE low-post game after working with Hakeem Olajuwon in the off-season, but we're only seeing glimpses of it because either Melo is taking all the shots, or because Woodson STILL hasn't figured out how to incorporate Amare's new skill set into the offense.  And we all know, that in the playoffs, where everything grinds to a half-court offense stop, you need a guy who can score down low.  Yes, Melo can do that, but he's better off on the wing, facing up his defender.

The Rabbi:            Yeah, but Grant Hill was amazing on his defense #1 and #2 I have to believe that Amare is always going to be a work in progress this season, but that's why they need a big man.  If not to work with Amare, then to be in there late with Chandler and Melo.

Jay Kaplan:            We'll see.  Okay, shall we look at the Player to Watch in the Second Half for the Knicks?

The Rabbi:            OK, now I think we've given Melo enough talk here.

Jay Kaplan:            Who? J

The Rabbi:            I have to go with a guy that at times represents the same erratic guy who shoots 1-for-a million from the field one night and 999,999-1 million the next.  Yup, it's JR Smith.  JR has bought into this system to a certain extent and has done what I never thought he would be able to do, win the Knicks crowd over.  But there is a bit of an inconsistency to his play.

Jay Kaplan:            Ya think?  He gives me John Starks flashbacks!

The Rabbi:            What do the numbers 9-0-18-11-17-25-16-13-15-6 mean?  That's not the combination from Lost, that's Smith's scoring line last 10 games!

Jay Kaplan:            Very Starks-ian.

The Rabbi:            I think his Knicks tenure can be summed up by the Celtics game in Boston a few weeks ago.  3-16 from the field, but hits 2 clutch shots in the last 2 minutes.  Sadly, as a Knicks fan, he's probably the team’s second best option right now at clutch time.  When JR is on he's on, but when he's off he's JR.

Jay Kaplan:            I liked what I saw from JR earlier in the season, but he has been way too inconsistent of late.  I cringe at the thought of a guy with a 39.8%FG as the Knicks #2 option.  I know it may not be the popular pick, but my guy to watch in the second half is Steve Novak.  If this guy is getting 5+ FGA from beyond the arc and is knocking them down at his career rate of 44%, that means, to quote Walt Frazier, the Knicks are dishing and swishing.  In Wins: 8.5ppg in 23 minutes per game, 5.3 3PT FGA per game and hitting them at a 45.7% clip.  In losses: 3.8ppg in less than 20 minutes per game, only 2.8 3PT FGA per game and hitting at only a 38.3% clip.  Yes, Novak is a one-dimensional player with a singular skill, but we both know that his ability to knock down 3's is essential to the success of the Knicks offense.  I know that stats can be made to fit any narrative we want, but I think this even passes the "Eye Test".  When Novak gets shots, he knocks those shots down and the Knicks have a better chance to win. We've seen it time and again this season.

The Rabbi:            Yeah, Novak is a huge streak shooter though, I almost think if he's getting the threes, everyone is getting the threes.  That simple.  Okay, so let's move on to the Brooklyn Nets.  They've had their ups, and they've CERTAINLY had their down in 2012-13, on their way to a 30-22 record.  Jay, what's your grade for the Nets first half?

Jay Kaplan:            I can't give the Nets anything higher than a B.  These guys are JR Smith-like in terms of streakiness as a team.  They run hot and cold like nobody's business.  They’re 4-6 in their last 10 games, practically break even in point differential at +0.3 and are averaging only 86.1ppg in their last seven games.  They can't run their offense if Deron Williams isn't on the floor and he's been inconsistent compared to last year, averaging just 13.7 points, 5.7 assists and 4.0 turnovers and shooting 38.7%FG from the field in his last six games prior to being shelved with his ankle issues.  Brook Lopez has been solid, even All-Star worthy, but I was expecting more from Joe Johnson than I've seen so far and that bench is reed-thin and inconsistent.  You're not going to win a title with Bogans and Blatche as the best guys on your second unit.  I know, I know, MarShon Brooks, but he isn't even a below-the-poverty-line facsimile of Jamal Crawford.

The Rabbi:            Something is wrong with D-Will so for me this grade is actually a B-.

Jay Kaplan:            Lowest numbers in major stat categories in his last 5 seasons.

The Rabbi:            And the Nets have had a disappointing season, even by mediocre standards, and yes I know they are 8 games over .500.  Yeah, I think D-Will needs to rehab injuries that I think he's truthfully playing through.  Joe Johnson has actually kept this team afloat in the last 15 to 20 games shockingly.

Jay Kaplan:            Well, Deron has been shelved, he won't even practice till this week.

The Rabbi:            Yeah, I think he should be out longer.  Deron is just starting to become a tiny bit of a hinderance out there.  He may need to run a few less plays when he comes back.  Just look at the game against an actual good team, Indiana.  It was ugly, but they won.  And the Nets may need to win "ugly" a lot more in the second half of the season.

Jay Kaplan:            D-Will had been averaging almost 36 minutes per game this season, that's a lot of wear and tear on a PG in an Isolation-heavy offense.  It may just be taking it's toll on him.  Unfortunately, as I said, this team flat out struggles to run it's offense without him.  I think you're right about them having to win a lot of ugly games in the second half in order to stay in the hunt for the #4 seed and home court in the first round.  When healthy, I like their Starting Five, but that bench is a hindrance.  I know GM Billy King from his time running the Sixers Front Office and he's a deliberate guy, but I do think he needs to add to this team.  The rumors are already circulating.  Interest in Utah's Paul Milsap; could Carlos Boozer be coming here to reunite with D-Will; and according to ESPN, through their league sources, the Nets are "aggressively pursuing a trade for Atlanta Hawks star forward Josh Smith."  I put no stock in trade rumors.  They are a whole lot of sound and fury signifying nothing, until something actually happens, but the Nets do need to make something happen.

The Rabbi:            I completely agree with you 100%.  This team needs a boost via any trade whatsoever.  Smith would be a headache for this team financially and personality wise, but I think desperate times call for desperate measures, but I'll get to that in a second.  One thing that's amazing about the Nets, is that they've won almost all the games they were supposed  to win this season.

Jay Kaplan:            ALMOST. 

The Rabbi:            They have one loss, ONE, against a below .500 team at the time they played them this season, and that was the week leading to the All-Star break against Washington.  However, all that will do for the Nets is expose them in a Best of Seven.  It would be ironic if the Knicks and Nets played each other in Round 1, with each team's inability to win against a good team in 2013.

Jay Kaplan:            Well, if Williams is out for an extended period and King doesn't make a trade that improves this team, they could fall to the #6 or #7 seed and could play the Knicks if they are the #2 or #3.  That said, let's take a look a the key second half player for Jay-Z's team.  Rabbi, who are you looking at?

The Rabbi:            I was thinking more of a 4-5 situation actually.

Jay Kaplan:            Nah, the Knicks won't fall that far.

The Rabbi:            I don’t know, Indiana and Chicago have a good shot.

Jay Kaplan:            Well, we can discuss that in our “Around the NBA” segment.

The Rabbi:            Now moving on to the Nets Player to Watch in the second half, I have go all OTSL's Sean Roman on you and say Kris Humphries!

Jay Kaplan:            HAHAHAHAHA!!!

The Rabbi:            This is a double-edged sword here.  Here's edge #1: Kris Humphries gets traded sometime in the next week and is one of the key pieces that go to Atlanta in a trade for Josh Smith or bring a decent bench guy back to Brooklyn like Ben Gordon.  Edge #2: He stays and becomes a force again, not the inconsistent 6ppg mess he's become in 2013.

Jay Kaplan:            His disappearance has hurt this team, he was being counted on to be a physical presence inside.

The Rabbi:            Hell, in the first half versus Denver last week, he had an early 10 points!  And we though JR was Mr. Inconsistency.  We need to see more of the pre-“I-just-got-jilted-by-Kim Kardashian” Kris Humphries.

Jay Kaplan:            Indeed, the Nets need the guy who averaged 14/11 last year not the 6/6 guy they’ve been getting so far this season.  My Net to watch in the second half is Joe Johnson.  I talked about Johnson on OTSL when we were doing our Knicks/Nets preview.  This is a career 18/4/4 guy who has been the #1 offensive option on a playoff team; been an All-Star; and I felt he'd be the perfect compliment to D-Will, playing off him on some nights and taking over on others.  But I haven't seen the guy I saw in Atlanta.  All of his numbers are down slightly from his career averages, by about 1pt, 1 assist and 1 rebound which most people would look at and say "Well, this is Deron Williams team, it makes sense that Johnson's numbers would drop a bit being Option #2", but when you look underneath the numbers - and you know I always do - here's what jumps out: In wins, he averages 18.2ppg on 44.6%FG.  In losses he averages 14.9pts on 38.6%FG.  That's a pretty big split for a guy who is supposed to be a hallmark of consistency.  He's about on par with his career PPG Split in wins, but he's down from his career PPG split in losses.  If D-Will is going to miss games and/or play less minutes, then it's going to be even more incumbent upon Joe to pick up the slack and be the guy who was a 6-Time All-Star while down South.

The Rabbi:            You know, it's kind of funny, the last time JJ went over 20 was the MLK day win against the Knicks.  Joe Johnson is going be a huge part to this team, but maybe D-Will's few games out will help Joe and the rest of this team.  The game against Indiana was all about seeing how ugly they can win a game.

Jay Kaplan:            We'll see, with D-Will out who’s going to get JJ the ball?

The Rabbi:            Well, as I said before, I think D-Will has had injuries since the season started

If he’s not 100% D-Will may not be as helpful as you think.

Jay Kaplan:            And when CJ Watson is your backup PG, that's a problem.  And yes, that will impact Johnson's effectiveness.  Forget all those Forwards in the trade rumors, get this team a PG!

The Rabbi:            I'm not saying CJ Watson is D-Will II, but for right now D-Will needs to fix what is wrong with him.  This has been, one crazy first half of the NBA season, but everything has been closer to status quo, the top 3 teams are pretty much the same as last year (Spurs, Heat, and Thunder), so let's talk about the surprises.

Let's start with a good surprise Jay.

Jay Kaplan:            The team that has surprised me so far this season - and they're making me look good for picking them as the team to watch on OTSL's NBA Preview - is the Denver Nuggets.  As much as I hated to see him leave Philly - and I still don't agree with the trade - I knew that Andre Igoudala would be a great addition to a pretty good team and he's made them better on both ends of the floor.  He's around his career numbers in points, rebounds and assists, averaging 13/5/5.  He's what Dickie V calls a Stat Sheet Stuffer, but more than that, you get NBA All-Defense level D; great decision making; and leadership; things that cannot often be quantified - shocking coming from a stat guy, I know - but that every team with championship aspirations needs.  He was, in my estimation, the missing piece to a really good, young core of Danilo Galinari, Ty Lawson and Kenneth Faried.  He gives Denver another "Been there, done that, got the t-shirt to prove it" veteran who, along with Andre Miller, will guide this bunch of kids deeper into the playoffs than most people may think. They play at a very high pace - #3 in PPG; they move the ball well - #2 in assists; they shoot a high percentage; they get a LOT of second chance points - they're #1 in Offensive rebounding - and they get steals and blocks at a high rate.  Wow, I sounded like Hubie Brown there for a second.

The Rabbi:            I loved the Nuggets, they are essentially a stat sheet stuffer team and Faried is as much of a beast as any player in the entire league when it comes to the boards.  I think it will be just a couple of years till Faried wins Defensive Player of the Year.  I'm going to go with the highest scoring team in the NBA.  I'm going with the Houston Rockets.

Jay Kaplan:            Nice choice!

The Rabbi:            The Harden trade that they made days before the season has worked out perfectly for this franchise, who was looking for a #1 guy for years now.  Houston is 29-25, really been a solid team from the moment the word go has been said this year.

Jay Kaplan:            Word go? Come on, you're better than that Rabbi!  At least go with "from the opening tip"!

The Rabbi:            Harden is the reason, with numbers that I don't think we thought he would have this soon after being put into a starting lineup.  Harden is a 27ppg player and has been carrying this team on certain nights when they've needed it.  Omar Asik (thank God I don't have to speak his name here) has been a pleasent surprise as well as the #2 player on this team shockingly.  And oh yeah, there's some guy named Lin that's been playing up to acceptable PG status, at least scoring-wise.  If he can run the floor more efficiently, this team is going to be trouble.  I don't think a team like the Thunder wants to draw the Rockets in Round 1.

Jay Kaplan:            A couple of solid choices.  Let's move on to the team that has been the disappointment so far in the first half.  Are we going to unanimously give that to the Lakers Rabbi?

The Rabbi:            There are two EASY choices here, I think, so I'll go with the Lakers.  Yup, I go status quo.  The Lakers have been as entertaining as promised, entertaining train wreck style.  There are three problems at work here.  Problem #1 is Mike Antoni.  And I think you know why I call him that Jay.

Jay Kaplan:            Because his teams NEVER play D! (insert rim shot here)

The Rabbi:            Yup, he should be ashamed to have “D” in his name!  Mike is also a problem in this aspect: he thinks this team should run around his system, and not let Kobe, Dwight, Nash, and Gasol, be, you know, the All stars that they are!  Problem #2 is Dwight Howard.  I don’t think he's used to a media market like LA.  You know how some baseball players can't play in NY where baseball is king?  Well, I’m thinking Dwight can't play in LA where B-Ball is King.  At least the Lakers are.  That PLUS I think Dwight worries too much about his image and his touches.

Jay Kaplan:            Just about to say that.  I agree with you on both of those last two points.

The Rabbi:            Third and final problem: I need to see ONE version of Kobe Bryant.  One day it's the 30 shot Kobe Bryant, another day it's the motivational leader Kobe Bryant, another day it's 11 assist Kobe Bryant, and then you have the final version of Kobe Bryant, one who didn't take A SINGLE SHOT in the first half against the Suns last week.  Not didn't make a shot, didn't take a shot.  I feel like Kobe Bryant needs to be a scorer again.  Let Steve Nash be the facilitator.  Let the rest of the players play.

Jay Kaplan:            I hear ya Kid.  There may be one or two other teams that are disappointing, but I'm sorry no team has been as disappointing on so many levels and so many ways as the Lakers, so we are unanimous on this one.  For me this all started with Mike Brown getting fired five, count ‘em FIVE games into the season, though you can go back before that and say that Little Jimmy Buss being given the keys to the car was the first domino.  You heard me say this when it all went down, but I'll say it again, because it bears saying.  Jim Buss has no business having the final word on personnel matters.  It is a crime against basketball that a solid GM like Mitch Kupchak, who built the teams that got Kobe his rings has to answer to a lugnut like Jim Buss.  Jim Buss is why Mike (no D)'Antoni is coaching instead of Phil Jackson.  Phil wanted some say in personnel decisions - no doubt like he did during his previous tenure - but Dr. Jerry said "Nope" and Phil wasn't about to come back and deal with Little Jimmy so back to Montana he went and the rest is the train wreck you see before you.  Now I'll grant you, the Lakers have resembled a M*A*S*H unit that would make Hawkeye Pierce proud - Google it youngster - so that has played a major part in this disaster of a first half.  You can't expect Kobe, Nash, Howard and Gasol to learn how to play together if you can't get them all on the court at the same time.  And now Gasol is pretty much done for the year.  This is a team in search of an identity and if they don't find it quick, they'll be on the outside looking in come mid-April when the playoffs start.

The Rabbi:            I know who Hawkeye Pierce is!  I know my M*A*S*H damnit!

Jay Kaplan:            HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!

The Rabbi:            This is not the year for the Lakers and it makes me wonder if they want Howard to stay around or they really want to blow this up. 

Jay Kaplan:            Oh I get the feeling Howard is One And Done with the Lakers.  But yes, let's move on.

The Rabbi:            This last half of the season is a big time for teams to make their big move in the playoff race, so let's pick two teams to watch, one from the East and one from the West in these last 30-something games.

Jay Kaplan:            Okay for me the teams to watch are the Chicago Bulls in the East and the Golden State Warriors in the West.  I'll start with the Bulls.  Once again, they have shown they can win despite not having the services of star PG Derrick Rose.  They are 30-21 and currently the #4 seed in the East which would get them home court.  They are doing it with Smoke and Mirrors on offense - their 93.6ppg is 27th in the Association - and the tough defense that has become their trademark under Head Coach Tom Thibodeau.  They only allow 91.9ppg, good for #3 in the league.  Luol Deng is having a decent season, leading the team with 16.9ppg and the Bulls are getting 27.6 points and 20.6 rebounds from Joakim Noah and Carlos Boozer, but how far can this team go without Rose?  According to Bulls GM John Paxson, Rose will start 5-on-5 practices after the All-Star break, but Rose says his recovery is at about 80%, which means he could be back in two weeks or not till next season.  It will be interesting to see what kind of run the Bulls can make without their Franchise Player.

As for the Golden State Warriors, did anyone see this coming?  I know I didn't.  They’re 30-22, currently sitting at #6 in the West and they are doing it without Monta Ellis, who they traded last season to the Bucks for Andrew Bogut and Stephen Jackson.  Freed from having to share the ball with the talented but mercurial Ellis, Steph Curry has taken over the leadership of this team and is putting up solid numbers: 21ppg; 6.6ast; shooting 90% from the stripe and 45% from downtown where he's jacking up 7 shots a game. David Lee - who I LOVED when he was a Knick - is doing his usual lunch-pail/hard hat work averaging 19 points and almost 11 boards per game. Young Klay Thompson has been a nice complimentary scorer (16.4ppg) and Jarrett Jack has done a solid job running the point off the bench.  They have good role players (Harrison Barnes, Carl Landry) and Mark Jackson has done a decent job as Head Coach.  The key for the Warriors in the second half will be upping things on the defensive end.  They are near the bottom of the NBA in steals, blocks and opponent's PPG.  They also commit more turnovers than they force.  And while they are Top-10 in DEF FG% and 3PT% (#6 in each), they allow too many offensive rebounds which means that while their opponents may miss their first shot, too often they get a second.  If they can shore some of these things up, they can be a factor in the post-season.

The Rabbi:            First of all on Chicago, Rose has said he wont come back til he's 110%, so I'm sorta surprised at the mixed messages the team and him has sent

Jay Kaplan:            Truth

The Rabbi:            And Golden State needs to be careful, they've lost 5 in a row.  Okay, for me I have to go with two rivals: Boston and LA. You know those old rivals the Celtics and the Clippers.

Jay Kaplan:            HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!

The Rabbi:            I'll start with Boston, who I think we all thought were dead at the beginning of the year.  Now, they're 28-24, and have won 8 out of their last 10.  Can they truly have a huge run without Rajon Rando, who's done for the year?  I remember the moment when we heard about the injury and the initial reaction was they're done, there's no freaking way they win the division, they'll be lucky to keep their playoff spot which was 8th at the time.  Since then they've moved up to 7th, opened the gap to 5 games clear of a playoff spot, have won games pretty (double OT vs. the Heat) and UGLY (they scored 8 points vs. the Bulls in the 3rd quarter last week and still won).  However, the big thing for them now is this: they can stay with this team - surprisingly deep as it is - and maybe, just maybe, win the division for a 6th year in a row.  It's possible. 

Now to the Clippers.  I looked at last year's strike shortened season as a tryout to see if the Clippers can become elite and if this was the right fit for Chris Paul.  Check and check.  Right now they are firmly in the #3 spot in the West and despite not having Chris Paul for a good amount of games this year, they're 37-17!  This team is the deepest in LA by far, and they might be just as deep or deeper then the San Antonio Spurs.  Chris Paul is going to be a Clipper a lot longer than Dwight Howard will be a Laker.  And most importantly, if the Clips show they can make one big push to go over either OKC and/or San Antonio to get one of those top two spots in the West, LA may see Championship basketball in June anyway.

So, Jay, we saw the run LeBron James went on: six games of 30+ points and 60%+FG from the field.  Insane!  But is he or Kevin Durant your midseason MVP?

Jay Kaplan:  Before I answer that, let me toss my two cents in on your picks.  The Celtics still have enough to be dangerous. I wouldn't want to play them in the post-season. The Clippers will have a strong regular season but the Royalty of the West just ain't ready to let them crash the party.  Just sayin Rabbi.

As far as who gets Midseason MVP?  Come on, that's a Clown Question Bro!  It's a one-horse race and LeBron James could walk backwards and still win.  You've done the math already - thanks for stealing my numerical thunder Kid - and it is flat out astounding!  He's taken his game to such a different level this season.  Everyone should be very afraid.  This is what it's come to: in Miami’s 117-104 win over Portland last week The King put up what is becoming a typical game for him: 30pts, 6reb, 9ast, 11-15FG.  Now the other members of the Big Three were pretty damn good too.  D-Wade went for 24pts, 9reb, 7ast and Chris Bosh had himself 32pts/11reb in the game on 13-16FG.  Do you think Wade got any of the SportsCenter highlights?  Maybe ONE.  Bosh got ZERO!  Talk about getting no respect.  ESPN chose to put in two highlights of shots that LeBron made but didn't count.  That’s what it’s come to Rabbi.  It's LeBron's league; all the other players are just squirrels trying to get some nuts.

The Rabbi:            I thought this was the Lakers league considering how much attention they get.  Also, we had a Clown question and a M*A*S*H reference in the same chat!  Success!

Jay Kaplan:            Nah, that streak of LeBron's pushed the Lakers WELL off the back page. As for the wide-ranging Pop Culture references, you're welcome.

(Editor’s Note: The passing of Owner Dr. Jerry Buss has put the Lakers back on the back pages and both The Rabbi and Jay – as well as the rest of the OTSL family – extend their condolences to the Lakers and the Buss family.)

The Rabbi:            Alright, I'm going with Kevin Durant.  I love the stat of those six games with 30ppg and 60% shooting, until I realized the two guys tied with five games in a row are

Adrian Dantley and Moses Malone.  Really?

Jay Kaplan:            Yeah, not even in the same Zip Code as LeBron, though both are in the Hall.

The Rabbi:            The Thunder have a better record than the Heat; Durant scores more PPG than LeBron; and sure LeBron averages an assist more per game; but that's because there's still a BIG Three in Miami.  OKC now has Durant and Westbrook and a lot of good guys, but they are in great shape - almost the exact spot that they were in last year - and it's all because of one person: KD.

Jay Kaplan:            That all you've got Kid?

The Rabbi:            Nah, I got more but I don't show all my bullets at once.  The media is a rollercoaster ride.  Remember the West is a dog fight, the East allows you to get all these high scoring stats and that's why LeBron is getting the love right now, and I don't know if he's been playing at this level all year.

Jay Kaplan:            Yup and as we all know, it's all about who raises the Larry O'Brien trophy in June.  So with that in mind, here are our predictions for the NBA Finals.  Rabbi start us off.

The Rabbi:            Heat-Spurs.  I LOVE the Thunder, but I feel like they take a step back this year.  I know the Spurs have a good run left in them here and if they can look back at those four games at the end of that Western Conference Finals in 2012, they can improve on that, and Harden won't kill them this time!  As for the Heat, I don't see who beats them in the East.

Jay Kaplan:            Well, I agree with you about Miami.  I don't see anyway they don't make it back to the Finals unless Kevin Garnett goes all Tanya Harding on LeBron with a tire iron.  As for who they'll face?  Well, as much as I can never count out a Greg Popovich coached team, I think the Thunder also make it back even without Harden and make it a rematch.  Though if the Western Conference Finals are Thunder-Spurs again?  Well, then all bets are off.

The Rabbi:            Well, this marathon chat has ended, any final words you'd like to say sir?

Jay Kaplan:            It's been an interesting first half of the season in the Association.  I enjoyed the Annual Pick-up game (aka “The NBA All-Star Game”) and the NBA's celebration of His Airness turning 50.  And now that all that is out of the way I’m looking forward to what should be a very interesting second half both here in The Big Apple and across the NBA.

The Rabbi:            Same here, there has been a lot of interesting twists and turns so far this season and I can't wait for this stretch drive and the NBA's Second Season.  Back for more basketball talk next post.  Till then, we're out.

Jay Kaplan:            Later!