Friday, June 22, 2012

Have We Finally Found The Next Michael Jordan?


By David Shepard, OTSL Special Contributor

There has been much speculation concerning LeBron James when it comes to being King. Coming into this postseason it was the NBA Finals in which LeBron James had his lowest PPG in any series. In the 2012 NBA Finals James has answered his critics and then some. For the only comparable performance from a non-Big Man in the NBA finals, you have to go back to you know who (Michael Jordan). 

I will demonstrate that LeBron James is not just playing better than anyone else in the NBA right now, but he is also putting himself in Michael Jordan's neighborhood. One can finally make an argument that James is the guy we can say is truly the next Michael Jordan.


Food For Thought: LeBron had a triple-double in the close-out game. Kobe Bryant, Michael Jordan and Allen Iverson have played 14 NBA Finals Series between the three of them. They have a combined zero triple-doubles in any Finals game, let alone a close-out game. 


Spin 1: LeBron is clearly the closest thing we have seen to Jordan

Since 1990 there have been four non-Big Men who have won the MVP award and played in the NBA Finals in the same season. They are Jordan, Iverson, Kobe and James. Here is how they compare the first time each player accomplished this. In all fairness Jordan did it four times, but LeBron has time to make up for that.

Despite the strong assist performance from MJ, he never had a game in the 1991 NBA Finals in which he had 10 rebounds. James did it three times in 2012. Jordan also never got to the line 10 times in a single game in the 1991 NBA Finals. In Game 2 on the road James went 12-12 from the charity stripe. Keep in mind LeBron has been harshly criticized for not attacking the hoop in years past. 

In the 2008 NBA Finals, in Games 4 and 6, Kobe scored less than 25 points; the Lakers lost both those games, including one at home. Kobe never had a game in which he had more than 7 rebounds. LeBron has not had a game in the 2012 NBA Finals in which he had less than 7 rebounds. Iverson's best game in terms of field goal percentage in the 2001 NBA finals did not match James's worst game from the field in the 2012 NBA Finals. 

Non Big Men NBA MVP's In NBA Finals (1st Appearance, Since 1990)
              James*     Bryant       Iverson     Jordan*  
Year        2012         2008           2001        1991 
PPG        28.6          25.7             35.6          31.2
RPG        10.2           4.7                5.6             6.6
APG           7.4           5.0                3.8           11.4
*NBA Finals MVP

Spin 2: James Has Done a 180 in these NBA Finals compared to his first two Finals performances

James has absolutely stepped up his game in the 2012 NBA Finals. he has scored at least 25 points in all five games. Just to put that into perspective, he had zero games in the 2011 NBA Finals where he scored 25 points. He also had six games to accomplish this. 

James has also made up for his struggles at the free throw line. James has shot over 82% from the charity stripe in 2012.  By comparison, in last year's NBA Finals he shot just 60% from the free throw line. He has increased his scoring in these NBA Finals compared to last year's by 62%.

2012 Is Year Of The King (James NBA Finals Career)
YEAR   2012         2011         2007
PPG      28.6         17.8          22.0
RPG     10.2            7.2            7.0
APG        7.4            6.8            6.8


Spin 3: Compared to last year, he has less support in 2012. He simply put the Heat on his back.

Dwyane Wade shot nearly 55% from the field last year in the NBA Finals.  In this year's Finals, he shot just 43% from the field. His scoring average is down by nearly four PPG. Wade had three games in the NBA Finals last season where he scored more than 25 points; he had none during these NBA Finals. Chris Bosh's decrease in PPG has gone down by nearly 22%. Bosh was a lot more efficient in the NBA Finals last year as well. He had three games in which he shot over 50% from the field; in these NBA finals, he had one.

James Is Clearly Batman (But in 2011 he had better Robins)
                     Wade                       Bosh
             2011      2012        2011      2012 
PPG       26.5      22.6         18.5       14.6
APG         5.2        5.8            1.0         0.2
FG%      54.6      43.5         41.3       45.2


LeBron James has been playing at a completely different level in this post-season starting with Game 6 of the Eastern Conference Finals against the Boston Celtics.  He has become like Kobe and MJ - an Assassin-like Closer with a Refuse-To-Lose mentality.  It's something all the transcendent ones have and it's why The King is FINALLY an NBA Champion.

Monday, June 11, 2012

Who Would You Rather Have Wade Or Westbrook?


By David Shepard, OTSL Special Contributor

There will certainly be a lot of conversation about LeBron or Durant as the best player in the NBA over the next two weeks. The other matchup to watch will be Dwyane Wade versus Russell Westbrook. Both are widely considered the second best players on their team. Barring injury, Westbrook is on track to be in the Hall of Fame while Wade has all but locked up his status in Springfield. It begs the question, which second banana would you rather have on your team in the NBA Finals?

Side note: We know that Durant will be guarding LeBron. With Harden playing the point guard at times, Westbrook will shift to the two, having to guard Dwyane Wade. 


Spin 1: Westbrook has outplayed Wade in these playoffs

Despite being just 23 years old, Westbrook has outplayed Wade in the 2012 NBA playoffs. Keep in mind he had to do it against better overall competition. The Thunder had to go through the defending champions in Dallas as well as the Lakers, who have won 2 of the last 3 NBA championships. These match ups were in the first two rounds. Their real challenge came against the Spurs, who had won 20 games in a row.

Dwyane Wade and the Heat played the 7th seeded Knicks and then the Indiana Pacers in the first two rounds of the playoffs. Since 2005, the Knicks and Pacers coming into these playoffs, had a combined ZERO postseason series wins. The first two round's opponents for the Thunder had a combined 20 postseason series wins since 2005. Despite the tougher competition, Westbrook had more assists and rebounds per game. He has also been a lot more efficient from the free throw line.

Youth Over Experience
2012 Postseason
           Westbrook    Wade
PPG      21.7            22.9  
APG        5.6               4.1
RPG        5.1              5.0
FT%      79.2            71.4


Spin 2: Westbrook had more success than Wade at age 23

Let's compare both players at the age of 23. Westbrook has won more playoff series than Wade did at the age of 23. He has also made more All-Star appearances and All-NBA second teams. To Westbrook's credit he has also won a gold medal in the World Championship games. That is something Wade could not claim at the age of 23. 

Westbrook Has The Edge
At 23 Years Old
                                          Westbrook    Wade
All-NBA Second Teams         2               1
All-Star Appearances             2               1
Playoff Series Wins                4               3


Spin 3: Westbrook outplayed Wade when teams faced off this season

Keep in mind Dwyane Wade is in his prime. Despite being just 23 years old, Westbrook has outplayed Dwayne Wade in the two games the Heat and Thunder have played against each other this season. Westbrook also went 13 for 13 from the charity stripe against the Heat this season. 

Number Don't Lie
Thunder vs. Heat  - Regular Season
           Westbrook    Wade
PPG       20.5           20.5
APG        4.0             3.0
RPG        3.5             3.5
SPG        3.0             3.0

This is going to be a great match-up to keep an eye during the Finals.  The up-and-coming Westbrook against the established veteran star Wade.  Whichever Second Banana has the better series could very well determine whether it's LeBron or Durant who gets to raise the Championship trophy.

Wednesday, June 06, 2012

Kevin Garnett Or Tim Duncan - Who truly is the greatest power forward ever?


By David Shepard, OTSL Special Contributor

There has been a consensus that Tim Duncan is the greatest power forward in the history of basketball. However, after watching the rejuvenation of Kevin Garnett in his 17th season, I have to reconsider this premise.....One can argue that Garnett with his recent performances may move Duncan aside from the title of greatest power forward of all time, here are the facts.

Spin 1: Garnett has been much better in the conference finals in 2012

Duncan is averaging six less points per game in the Thunder series compared to the previous series against the Clippers. He also picked the conference finals to shoot his worse field goal percentage in the playoffs. He has not had a single 20-point, 10-rebound game in the conference finals. 

Garnett on the other hand has had three games in the conference finals where he has gone for at least 20 points and 10 rebounds. In one game Duncan finished witha total of two rebounds. Garnett's low in the conference finals is 8. The other big thing to keep in mind. Garnett's team is on the verge of going to the NBA finals,  while Duncan's Spurs are on the brink of elimination. 

Garnett Is Superior
2012 Conference Finals
              Garnett          Duncan
PPG          21.6              15.4
RPG          10.8               9.0
FG pct       48.9              42.6

Spin 2: Duncan has always had a lot more help

Keep in mind that for Tim Duncan's first 6 years in the league he played a long side first ballot of famer David Robinson. In the last 10 seasons he has played with Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker. They have a combined six all-star appearances. In Garnett's 12 years in Minnesota he never played with a single player that had multiple all-star appearances while playing with Garnett. 

In all fairness to Duncan, Garnett has had the luxury of playing with future hall of famers Ray Allen and Paul Pierce for the last five seasons. He has only been healthy/active for four of those campaigns. He is on the verge of making it three finals appearances in the last 4 healthy seasons for him. Duncan has been healthy/active for 14 seasons, and has always had the benefit of playing with players who had multiple all-star appearances. He has made four finals appearances in 14 seasons to a potential three in four years for Garnett. Again if you look at some career numbers with less help, Garnett's seem to be favorable.  

Despite Less Help
Garnett vs Duncan
                                             Garnett       Duncan 
All-Star Appearances                  14             13
NBA Defensive First Teams          9              8
Rebounding Titles                         4              0


Spin 3: Garnett hasn't just been better in the conference finals, but in the playoffs as a whole in 2012

Garnett has nine games in which he has gone for 20 points and 10 rebounds in the playoffs thus far. Tim Duncan has just one. Garnett has not shot lower than 48.9% from the field in any series. Duncan has shot under 47.0% in two different playoff series. 

In being a power forward, rebounding is such a key component. Duncan has finished with double figures in rebounds on 7 different occasions. Garnett has doubled that number so far with 14.

Playoffs Belong To Garnett
2012 Postseason

              Garnett       Duncan
PPG         19.9             16.8
RPG         10.8               9.0
FG pct      50.0              49.7


Spin 4: Career Wise Garnett stacks up with Duncan despite coming straight from high school

Keep in mind that Duncan had the advantage of playing four years at college, Kevin Garnett entered the NBA straight out of high school. As a result it took Garnett longer to get acclimated to the NBA. Having said that, both players numbers are pretty similar when you look at their overall career numbers. While Duncan has scored and rebounded with a little more efficiency, Garnett has truly separated himself as a distributor of the basketball. 

Mirror Images
NBA Careers
              Garnett     Duncan
PPG         19.3          20.3
RPG         10.6          11.3
APG           4.0           3.1

While this is the year that the San Antonio Spurs finally became Tony Parker's team and the Boston Celtics are well on their way to becoming Rajon Rondo's team, the linchpins of both teams are still their respective big men.  And with both closer to the end of their Hall of Fame careers than the beginning, we should enjoy both Duncan and Garnett while we still can.

Saturday, June 02, 2012

NBA Playoffs: Who Is Best Point Guard Remaining?


by David Shepard, OTSL Special Contributor 

With the NBA playoffs at full height the best point guard still playing has been Tony Parker. Russell Westbrook and Rajon Rondo do get a majority of the headlines, but Parker has outplayed both Rondo and Westbrook in these playoffs thus far. This is certainly a golden age for point guards in the NBA, but it is the polite and underrated Tony Parker that may be the best point guard remaining in these playoffs, and here is why....

Spin 1: He is outplaying Westbrook and and Rondo in the 2012 Postseason.

Despite the fact that Tony Parker has been in the league for 11 years he is still getting the job done. Rondo and Westbrook combined don't have that many seasons under their belt by the way. First off, Rondo and Westbrook have a combined 9 losses in the 2012 postseason, Parker has none. Parker has shot at least 50% from the field in two different playoff series, Rondo and Westbrook have not done this in a single series thus far. 

Parker is a better all around scorer and distributor of the basketball than both Westbrook and Rondo. Parker has gone for 10 assists at least twice, while Westbrook has no games in which he has hit that mark. Rondo's postseason high has been 23 points, Parker has scored at least 23 points on four different occasions. He has managed to do this while playing less games than both Rondo and Westbrook. 

Parker Best Point Guard This Postseason?
                       2012 Playoffs
             Parker    Rondo   Westbrook 
PPG         20.5      15.3         23.7
APG          7.1       11.9         4.8
FG pct      47.1      44.9        45.2  


Spin 2: Tony Parker is a flat out winner

Parker has a combined three NBA championships including a finals MVP under his belt. Rondo does have a championship, but zero finals MVP's. Parker has 20 postseason series wins, that is more than Rondo and Westbrook combined. Rondo has had the luxury of playing with three sure-fire first ballot hall of famers (Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce and Ray Allen) for the past five seasons. He has 11 postseason victories over those past five years. Tony Parker played with only one sure-fire first ballot hall of famer during his first full five seasons (Tim Duncan). He also won 11 postseason victories over that same time frame. 

Mr. Parker Shines In Playoffs
Notable Point Guards Postseason Careers
                       Parker      Rondo      Westbrook  
Titles                    3              1                 0
Finals MVP's        1              0                 0
Series Wins        20            11                 4


Spin 3: Parker has more than just the experience, he has the numbers too

Parker has more career playoff points than both Rondo and Westbrook combined. He has also played in 148 postseason games and counting. That is 28 more postseason games than both Westbrook and Rondo combined. To Parker's credit he has never missed a single postseason since he has been in the league. Rondo and Westbrook can't make that same claim.

Experience Counts For Something
Notable Point Guards Postseason Careers
                           Parker    Westbrook  Rondo
Points                   2,796       789          1,206
Assists                    753       197             773
Games played        148         34               86       

No matter how you slice it, Tony Parker is head and shoulders above the remaining point guards in the NBA Playoffs.

Editor’s note: Dave filed this story prior to Rajon Rondo’s spectacular 44 point, 8 rebound, 10 assist performance in the Celtics game 2 overtime loss to the Heat. Though I doubt even that would change his mind on Parker.
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